2050年海事预报，2023年版

MARITIMEFORECASTTO 2050 A deep dive into shipping’sdecarbonization journey FOREWORD and could compete with other decarbonizationfuel strategies. There are caveats – there is a longroad to travel before nuclear can be scaled, anda long logistics chain still needs to be developedfor onboard carbon capture – but we should stillevaluate these and other technologies to explorealternative pathways. CAPEX decisions and prevent assets from becomingunprofitable. Flexibility is key. Everything should beconsidered – fuels, digital tools, fleet deploymentand optimization – in seeking individually tailoredstrategies for collective industry gain. This is a critical decade for setting our industry decisively on course for net zero.The UN Secretary-General’s warning that we are entering an era of ‘global boiling’should ring an alarm bell also on the bridge. The report predicts that meeting the IMO GHG goalfor 2030 will require shipping to secure 30–40% ofthe estimated annual global supply of carbon-neutralfuels by then – a daunting, nearly impossible taskconsidering that other sectors will compete for thesame fuel supply. Thus, whatever can be achievedto reduce energy consumption is a no-brainer.Operational energy-efficiency measures like speedreduction, route optimization, and hull and propellercleaning should be implemented wherever possible. Shipping’s decarbonization is underway slowly likea supertanker coming about. That is clear from ourlatest Maritime Forecast to 2050 showing promisingrising orders for new ships able to run on lower-carbon fuel options, but very few operating vesselsdoing so. Collaboration is needed to ensure that future fuelsupply, infrastructure, and investment decisions areappropriate. Decarbonization of shipping will comewith significant costs, costs that cannot be absorbedby single stakeholders, being shipowners orgovernments. New contractual arrangements willlikely be needed in order to have the additionalcosts allocated through the value chain andeventually reaching the end consumer. MaritimeForecast to 2050 details how green shippingcorridors can speed up change by piloting ona smaller, manageable scale. Successful greencorridors may inspire global actions. An expected shortfall in carbon-neutral fuelsdrives us to widen our scope and exploreall available fuel options. So, MaritimeForecast to 2050 presents a detailedanalysis of liquefied hydrogen, anenergy source which could becomea viable option. At MEPC 80, governments acknowledged this,leading to the IMO’s revised greenhouse gasstrategy driving accelerated net-zero ambitions.Moreover, ship emissions will be priced through theEU Emissions Trading System from 2024. ‘Smart’ and digital systems on individual vesselsand fleets offer high rewards through operationalefficiencies. Innovative air lubrication systems andwind-assisted propulsion can boost efficiency andreduce fuel consumption. Maritime Forecast to 2050reviews their status and quantifies reported andpotential benefits. There is also an urgent need forlow-emission technologies for environmental benefitsand as alternatives to carbon-neutral fuels that lookslikely to become costly and hard-to-source. Regulatory change, and stake-holder and public pressure todecarbonize, will impact commercialboundary conditions. It thus makesbusiness sense to ensuresound long-term The clock is ticking louder on efforts to identify,define, and resolve barriers to successful and safedecarbonization. Complex and costly decisions formthe backdrop for ship designs, propulsion systems,and fuel sourcing. Together, we can make this decade decisivefor maritime decarbonization. The best strategy will hinge on many parameters,such as vessel size and trading pattern. Yet prag-matism and a defined pathway for the vessel’s lifewill be key to avoid unattractive or stranded assets.To support investment decisions, Maritime Forecastto 2050, produced from broad industry sources andDNV modelling, focuses both on challenges andpossible actions. Accordingly, Maritime Forecast to 2050 runs thenumbers on carbon capture and nuclear propulsiontechnology versus existing and future marine fuels.Under some conditions, both onboard carboncapture and nuclear look feasible operationally CONTENTS Foreword2 8Green shipping corridors for acceleratingthe uptake of carbon-neutral fuels568.1What is a green shipping corridor?578.2DNV’s stepwise approach assists stakeholdersstarting out on green shipping corridors60 4.3.3Wind-assisted propulsion systems314.3.4Air lubrication systems334.3.5Onboard carbon capture and storage344.3.6Nuclear propulsion36 1Executive summary42Introduction83Outlook on drivers and regulations for decarbonization103.1Regulatory developments123.1.1International Maritime Organization123.1.2European Union143.1.3United States163.1.4China173.2Well-to-wake GHG emissionsand sustainability of fuels183.3Net-zero emission shipping services204Outlook on ship technologies and fuels224.1Status of fuel technology