Maritime decarbonization roadmap to 2050
Maritime decarbonization is being driven by the IMO's Net-Zero Framework (NZF), which aims to achieve a 20% emissions reduction by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. The NZF introduces a global pricing mechanism for greenhouse gas emissions and technical requirements for well-to-wake GHG intensity. Ships will need to reduce their GHG fuel intensity (GFI) or use low-GHG fuels, facing financial penalties for non-compliance. The framework encourages the use of low-GHG fuels and technologies, including biofuels, LNG, methanol, ammonia, hydrogen, and onboard carbon capture.
The report highlights the significant progress in the technology transition, with the number of vessels on order with alternative fuel capability set to more than double by 2028. However, fuel availability and cost remain significant hurdles. The maritime industry currently consumes an estimated 1 Mtoe per year of low-GHG fuels, and will need access to around 25 Mtoe annually to meet the IMO's 2030 target. This represents intense competition from other sectors racing to decarbonize.
The report also emphasizes the urgent challenge in competence development, with an estimated 33,000 additional seafarers requiring alternative fuel training over the next three to four years. Energy efficiency measures, such as wind-assisted propulsion systems and onboard carbon capture, are also crucial for achieving the decarbonization goals.
Meeting the IMO and EU targets will require major investment in renewable power, low-GHG fuels production, and CO2 storage. Bunkering infrastructure for biofuels and LNG is well established in many locations, while methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen need investment in bunkering infrastructure. Flexible Chain of Custody models can boost low-GHG fuel availability and reduce the investment needs for storage and bunkering infrastructure.
The report concludes that success will depend on synchronized progress across ships, fuel supply, and port infrastructure, supported by investment, regulatory clarity, and industry-wide collaboration.
