2024 年增长部门 - 欧洲、美洲和亚太地区

PromisingSectors Automotive Chemicals Construction ConsumerDurables ICT Food Machines/engineering Metals/Steel Pharma Services Transport 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 Austria 1.6 -1.5 3.0 0.9 -2.2 2.3 -1.6 3.7 -8.6 0.3 1.4 1.7 -5.0 1.8 -5.9 2.0 4.1 2.3 1.4 2.2 0.1 7.2 Belgium -1.6 -5.9 1.4 0.5 1.1 0.8 2.5 2.4 -9.7 0.5 0.4 -0.4 0.0 -1.1 0.8 0.0 -6.2 0.4 1.7 1.1 0.8 2.7 CzechRep. -5.7 0.7 -0.1 3.7 1.8 4.1 0.9 3.0 -0.7 3.9 3.1 3.6 -5.3 4.0 -5.0 2.5 -0.6 2.5 1.7 2.4 3.2 3.6 Denmark 1.3 1.4 -3.6 3.0 2.7 5.5 5.3 1.3 -8.8 -0.8 3.7 1.5 -1.2 6.5 -3.3 3.0 17.8 3.7 0.4 3.6 6.6 10.7 France -0.5 3.5 2.8 1.2 0.6 1.7 0.2 1.2 -1.7 0.8 -1.0 1.5 -2.4 0.8 0.1 1.2 2.8 2.0 0.5 2.0 1.1 4.0 Germany 3.0 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.7 2.8 -2.7 2.7 -0.7 2.0 -2.6 1.1 -3.2 1.6 -1.9 -0.7 0.5 0.8 0.0 1.2 0.6 1.4 Hungary 1.3 4.8 -0.4 12.0 1.1 3.4 1.8 3.8 -4.6 7.2 4.9 1.6 3.5 7.2 -0.4 4.1 -1.9 2.3 2.6 2.3 3.0 7.7 Ireland 4.2 6.7 9.1 6.3 0.5 3.4 5.6 4.3 3.0 7.8 7.6 2.8 0.7 3.6 3.1 3.1 7.1 4.1 3.5 3.9 6.0 11.0 Italy -1.9 -5.2 2.5 2.2 0.8 2.7 0.9 2.6 2.1 2.9 2.0 2.6 1.0 3.9 2.4 6.4 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.4 TheNetherlands -33.2 1.8 3.5 4.7 0.6 1.9 6.5 1.4 4.6 6.4 5.2 2.3 -10.9 4.4 6.9 5.5 5.7 9.6 1.9 1.8 5.5 3.3 Poland 13.9 -0.1 9.6 2.8 1.0 0.8 6.5 5.5 5.0 10.5 8.3 2.4 3.0 5.0 4.4 1.7 9.7 3.1 4.1 2.8 9.8 7.0 Spain 2.8 0.3 4.0 3.5 1.6 3.2 3.0 2.6 6.1 5.7 1.0 1.4 1.5 5.0 2.0 3.0 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 Sweden -0.7 -1.0 0.0 4.1 -2.0 1.9 -1.6 1.7 -0.3 5.5 3.5 2.6 0.7 1.8 -3.2 3.7 1.1 2.8 0.1 1.6 1.6 9.3 Switzerland 0.8 3.4 -2.1 -0.8 -1.2 0.8 -0.1 1.9 2.1 3.6 -4.8 -1.3 1.5 3.4 -3.1 1.9 4.7 4.6 0.8 1.0 3.0 3.3 Turkey -5.4 6.6 3.8 3.3 9.2 2.4 0.6 0.8 3.5 1.7 2.4 1.3 -1.3 2.6 5.8 2.8 3.5 1.8 -0.8 1.8 -1.9 6.2 UK 6.6 -5.1 -0.2 2.6 -1.8 2.1 -2.8 0.8 -0.2 1.3 2.3 0.4 -6.1 8.5 1.7 -0.7 4.4 1.6 0.5 1.9 0.1 2.5 Growthsectorsin2024and2025 Itseemsthatasoftlandingoftheglo-baleconomyisonthecards.Butwhileinflationisdecreasing,pastinterestrisescontinuetoaffecthouseholdsandbusinesses. Againstthisbackdrop,Atradiusislookingforthe‘brightspots’.Wehaveanalysedthedataandcreatedforecastsforthemainsectorsandcountries.Readthetablestotherighttofindouttheoutlookforyoursector. Industryoutputforecast(year-on-year,%change) Levelling-offormodest1%decrease/increase Declineof1%-3% Brazil -1.0 5.9 2.7 1.9 1.7 2.9 -6.7 0.6 -2.9 2.4 0.5 1.6 -1.1 4.5 0.0 2.7 -5.0 2.8 0.3 2.4 -0.2 4.0 Canada -6.8 3.9 3.2 2.9 -2.0 0.2 -3.0 2.7 -0.9 3.9 -0.5 2.0 -2.4 4.8 2.0 3.7 -2.0 2.3 -0.3 2.5 4.3 7.3 Mexico -1.6 0.8 1.7 1.5 3.2 1.5 1.8 2.2 6.1 3.4 1.9 1.5 -5.1 -0.9 -1.8 0.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.1 3.3 3.4 USA 3.1 0.9 1.3 2.1 4.4 3.5 4.9 1.4 4.7 3.4 1.0 0.8 -0.7 4.5 0.6 2.2 0.3 2.6 2.5 1.2 2.8 2.2 Declineofmorethan3% Growthbetween1%-3% Growthbetween3%-5% Australia 0.0 0.9 3.8 -0.9 0.6 1.6 -1.1 0.8 0.0 0.9 -1.2 1.3 0.0 0.9 1.5 3.0 5.7 -0.9 1.8 3.0 0.6 2.2 China 3.6 1.2 6.2 4.1 1.7 -0.2 3.1 5.2 6.2 7.9 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.8 3.4 0.3 8.3 6.2 4.5 4.9 6.3 6.2 India 3.0 1.3 4.4 8.2 1.2 2.6 0.2 7.9 3.0 8.4 5.2 7.5 -2.2 4.2 2.9 6.1 6.8 6.3 8.2 8.9 8.9 7.5 Indonesia 4.6 3.0 4.8 4.4 1.5 -2.3 5.5 6.1 5.0 5.1 2.6 3.7 8.9 6.9 12.1 10.0 6.5 6.2 6.3 7.1 5.4 5.6 Japan -4.7 0.9 2.3 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 3.6 7.5 0.0 0.9 0.2 5.3 0.1 5.5 4.6 2.8 0.7 0.1 6.2 2.3 Singapore 7.7 9.7 2.9 8.7 3.0 1.8 -0.9 10.3 4.5 9.0 -2.5 7.0 2.8 2.4 -0.3 9.7 1.9 6.1 2.3 1.6 2.0 6.1 SouthKorea -2.8 3.8 3.4 7.2 0.3 1.8 3.8 4.2 12.7 7.6 1.4 3.0 4.0 5.2 -0.4 9.5 0.5 2.5 1.0 1.0 5.4 2.3 Taiwan -6.0 3.8 4.3 10.6 2.3 1.2 2.3 3.8 8.6 8.0 -0.5 3.6 -2.8 5.9 1.2 8.8 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.4 11.2 4.4 Thailand -10.9 13.5 5.8 5.9 1.3 5.7 0.7 4.6 -3.8 3.9 5.1 5.2 0.7 5.4 -2.8 7.0 -2.1 4.0 3.7 3.7 11.1 8.5 Vietnam 4.7 4.2 4.3 6.4 1.7 7.6 5.9 5.3 5.3 4.7 5.2 6.5 7.4 5.7 6.3 6.7 7.3 7.8 6.0 7.7 5.7 7.4 Growthabove5% Disclaimer Thispublicationisprovidedforinformationpurposesonlyandisnotintendedasinvestmentadvice,legaladviceorasarecom-mendationastoparticulartransactions,investmentsorstrategiestoanyreader.Readersmustmaketheirownindependentdecisi-ons,commercialorotherwise,regardingtheinformationprovided.Whilewehavemadeeveryattempttoensurethattheinformati-oncontainedinthispublicationhasbeenobtainedfromreliablesources,Atradiusisnotresponsibleforanyerrorsoromissions,orfortheresultsobtainedfromtheuseofthisinformation.Allinfor-mationinthispublicationisprovided’asis’,withnoguaranteeofcompleteness,accuracy,timelinessoroftheresultsobtainedfromitsuse,andwithoutwarrantyofanykind,expressorimplied.InnoeventwillAtradius,itsrelatedpartnershipsorcorporations,orthepartners,agentsoremployeesthereof,beliabletoyouoran-yoneelseforanydecisionmadeoractiontakeninrelianceontheinformationinthispublicationorforanyconsequential,specialorsimilardamages,evenifadvisedofthepossibilityofsuchdamages. CopyrightAtradiusN.V.2024