南华甲醇产业链数据周报：MTO端陡生意外，大方向逻辑不变

20231022 MTO F3046357Z0015428F03100606 WIND 1 200 150 100 50 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2021 2022 2023 2 7,000 4,500 6,000 4,000 5,000 3,500 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,000 2,000 0 2018-11-14 1,500 2019-11-14 2020-11-14 2021-11-14 2022-11-14 + + 4,500 3,000 4,000 2,500 3,500 2,000 3,000 1,500 2,500 1,000 2,000 500 1,500 2019-05-29 0 2020-05-29 2021-05-29 2022-05-29 2023-05-29 3 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20192020202120222023 WIND 650 550450 350 250 150 50 -507/1 -150 -250 -350 7/31 8/30 9/2910/2911/2812/28 01 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 -509/1 -150 10/1 10/31 11/30 12/30 1-5 1000 800 600 400 200 0 11/1 12/1 12/31 1/30 2/29 3/30 4/29 -200 05 400 300 200 100 0 1/1 1/31 3/1 3/31 4/30 -100 -200 5-9 550350 150 -503/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 -250 09 0 5/1 5/31 6/30 7/30 8/29 -40 -80 -120 -160 -200 9-1 WIND 4 3600 3400 1000 800 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 利润（右轴） 北线市场价 内蒙古煤制成本 4800 900 4300 700 3800 500 300 3300 100 2800 -100 2300 -300 1800 -500 利润（右轴） 山东中部市场价 山东煤制成本 3200 1000 3000 800 2800 600 2600 400 2400 2200 200 2000 0 1800 -200 3200 700 3000 500 2800 300 2600 2400 100 2200 -100 2000 -300 1800 -500 利润（右轴） 川渝市场价 西南天然气制成本 5 WIND 2022-01-14 2022-02-14 2022-03-14 2022-04-14 2022-05-14 2022-06-14 2022-07-14 2022-08-14 2022-09-14 2022-10-14 2022-11-14 2022-12-14 2023-01-14 2023-02-14 2023-03-14 2023-04-14 2023-05-14 2023-06-14 2023-07-14 2023-08-14 2023-09-14 2023-10-14 125 115 105 95 85 75 65 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 20192020202120222023 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 20192020202120222023 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 6 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 2020 2021 2022 2023 7 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 USD EUR 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500 -2000 -2500 -3000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 NGAUSD/MMBTU ICETTFEUR/MWH WIND 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 8 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 2019.00 2020.00 2021.00 2022.00 2023 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 2021 2022 2023 9 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 49 44 39 34 29 24 19 14 9 4 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 MTO MTO MTO 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023MTO 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2020 2021 2022 2023 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 沿海MTO日耗加总内地MTO日耗加总 • 11 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2021-11-12 2021-12-12 2022-01-12 2022-02-12 2022-03-12 2022-04-12 2022-05-12 2022-06-12 2022-07-12 2022-08-12 2022-09-12 2022-10-12 2022-11-12 2022-12-12 2023-01-12 2023-02-12 2023-03-12 2023-04-12 2023-05-12 2023-06-12 2023-07-12 2023-08-12 2023-09-12 2023-10-12 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2021 2022 2023 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 12 2021-10-31 2021-11-30 2021-12-31 2022-01-31 2022-02-28 2022-03-31 2022-04-30 2022-05-31 2022-06-30 2022-07-31 2022-08-31 2022-09-30 2022-10-31 2022-11-30 2022-12-31 2023-01-31 2023-02-28 2023-03-31 2023-04-30 2023-05-31 2023-06-30 2023-07-31 2023-08-31 2100 1900 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 700 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 13 WIND 450 350 250 150 50 -50 -150 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 LPG/DMEDME 1.7 24% 1.6 22% 1.5 1.4 20% 1.3 18% 1.2 16% 1.1 14% 1.0 12% 0.9 10% LPG/DME DME开工率 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 14 WIND MTBE MTBE MTBE 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 8500 7500 6500 5500 4500 3500 2500 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MTBE 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 2020 2021 2022 2023 15 WIND MTBE ARA- MTBE MTBE 900 700 500 300 100 -100 -300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月 20192020202120222023 MTBE 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 WIND 16 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1月 2月 3月4月5月 6月 7月 8月9月10月11月12月 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 250