南华甲醇产业链数据周报：近端压力未缓解，关注1-2月买入机会

20231231 1-2 F3046357Z0015428F03100606 WIND 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 65 55 45 35 25 15 5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2021 2022 2023 200 150 100 50 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2021 2022 2023 4 2700 2500 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 2023-08-14 2023-09-14 2023-10-14 2023-11-14 2023-12-14 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2020 2021 2022 2023 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2020 2021 2022 2023 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2020 2021 2022 2023 WIND 5 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20192020202120222023 7,000 4,500 6,000 4,000 5,000 3,500 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,000 2,000 0 2019-01-25 1,500 2020-01-25 2021-01-25 2022-01-25 2023-01-25 + + 4,500 3,000 4,000 2,500 3,500 2,000 3,000 1,500 2,500 1,000 2,000 500 1,500 2019-08-08 0 2020-08-08 2021-08-08 2022-08-08 2023-08-08 650 550450 350 250 150 50 -507/1 -150 -250 -350 7/31 8/30 9/2910/2911/2812/28 01 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 -509/1 -150 10/1 10/31 11/30 12/30 1-5 1000 800 600 400 200 0 11/1 12/1 12/31 1/30 2/29 3/30 4/29 -200 05 400 300 200 100 0 1/1 1/31 3/1 3/31 4/30 -100 -200 5-9 550350 150 -503/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 -250 09 0 5/1 5/31 6/30 7/30 8/29 -40 -80 -120 -160 -200 9-1 WIND 3200 700 3000 500 2800 300 2600 2400 100 2200 -100 2000 -300 1800 -500 利润（右轴） 川渝市场价 西南天然气制成本 3600 3400 1000 800 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 利润（右轴） 北线市场价 内蒙古煤制成本 4800 900 4300 700 3800 500 300 3300 100 2800 -100 2300 -300 1800 -500 利润（右轴） 山东中部市场价 山东煤制成本 3200 1000 3000 800 2800 600 2600 400 2400 2200 200 2000 0 1800 -200 2022-03-25 2022-04-25 2022-05-25 2022-06-25 2022-07-25 2022-08-25 2022-09-25 2022-10-25 2022-11-25 2022-12-25 2023-01-25 2023-02-25 2023-03-25 2023-04-25 2023-05-25 2023-06-25 2023-07-25 2023-08-25 2023-09-25 2023-10-25 2023-11-25 2023-12-25 125 115 105 95 85 75 65 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 20192020202120222023 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 20192020202120222023 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 9 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 135 125 115 105 95 85 75 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 49 44 39 34 29 24 19 14 9 4 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MTO MTO MTO 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023MTO 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2020 2021 2022 2023 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 沿海MTO日耗加总内地MTO日耗加总 • 2022-01-31 2022-02-28 2022-03-31 2022-04-30 2022-05-31 2022-06-30 2022-07-31 2022-08-31 2022-09-30 2022-10-31 2022-11-30 2022-12-31 2023-01-31 2023-02-28 2023-03-31 2023-04-30 2023-05-31 2023-06-30 2023-07-31 2023-08-31 2023-09-30 2023-10-31 2023-11-30 2100 1900 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 700 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 13 WIND 450 350 250 150 50 -50 -150 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 LPG/DMEDME 1.7 24% 1.6 22% 1.5 1.4 20% 1.3 18% 1.2 16% 1.1 14% 1.0 12% 0.9 10% LPG/DME DME开工率 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 14 30050 25050 20050 15050 10050 5050 50 2021 2022 2023 190,000 180,000 170,000 160,000 150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 2020 2021 2022 2023 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1月 2月 3月4月5月 6月 7月 8月9月10月11月12月 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 宝鸡 达拉特旗 榆林 2021-11-26 2021-12-26 2022-01-26 2022-02-26 2022-03-26 2022-04-26 2022-05-26 2022-06-26 2022-07-26 2022-08-26 2022-09-26 2022-10-26 2022-11-26 2022-12-26 2023-01-26 2023-02-26 2023-03-26 2023-04-26 2023-05-26 2023-06-26 2023-07-26 2023-08-26 2023-09-26 2023-10-26 2023-11-26 2023-12-26 - 2350 2250 100 80 60 2150 2050 1950 40 20 0 1850 -20 -40 1750 -60 1650 -80 1550 2023-07-07 -100 2023-08-072023-09-072023-10-072023-11-072023-12-07 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 2021 2022 2023 - - 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 2021 2022 2023 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 2021 2022 2023 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 PP-3MAPE/MA 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 (500) (1000) (1500) (2000) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2