南华甲醇产业链数据周报：长期持有思路不变

20231203 F3046357Z0015428F03100606 WIND 200 150 100 50 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2021 2022 2023 3 650 550450 350 250 150 50 -507/1 -150 -250 -350 7/31 8/30 9/2910/2911/2812/28 01 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 -509/1 -150 10/1 10/31 11/30 12/30 1-5 1000 800 600 400 200 0 11/1 12/1 12/31 1/30 2/29 3/30 4/29 -200 05 400 300 200 100 0 1/1 1/31 3/1 3/31 4/30 -100 -200 5-9 550350 150 -503/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 -250 09 0 5/1 5/31 6/30 7/30 8/29 -40 -80 -120 -160 -200 9-1 WIND 2022-02-25 2022-03-25 2022-04-25 2022-05-25 2022-06-25 2022-07-25 2022-08-25 2022-09-25 2022-10-25 2022-11-25 2022-12-25 2023-01-25 2023-02-25 2023-03-25 2023-04-25 2023-05-25 2023-06-25 2023-07-25 2023-08-25 2023-09-25 2023-10-25 2023-11-25 125 115 105 95 85 75 65 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 20192020202120222023 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 20192020202120222023 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 5 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 2020 2021 2022 2023 26.00 25.00 24.00 23.00 22.00 21.00 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 49 44 39 34 29 24 19 14 9 4 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MTBE • 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 8 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 105% 95% 85% 75% 65% 55% 45% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 2020 2021 2022 2023 DMF 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2021-12-24 2022-01-24 2022-02-24 2022-03-24 2022-04-24 2022-05-24 2022-06-24 2022-07-24 2022-08-24 2022-09-24 2022-10-24 2022-11-24 2022-12-24 2023-01-24 2023-02-24 2023-03-24 2023-04-24 2023-05-24 2023-06-24 2023-07-24 2023-08-24 2023-09-24 2023-10-24 2023-11-24 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2021 2022 2023 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 9 2021-12-31 2022-01-31 2022-02-28 2022-03-31 2022-04-30 2022-05-31 2022-06-30 2022-07-31 2022-08-31 2022-09-30 2022-10-31 2022-11-30 2022-12-31 2023-01-31 2023-02-28 2023-03-31 2023-04-30 2023-05-31 2023-06-30 2023-07-31 2023-08-31 2023-09-30 2023-10-31 2100 1900 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 700 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 10 WIND 450 350 250 150 50 -50 -150 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 LPG/DMEDME 1.7 24% 1.6 22% 1.5 1.4 20% 1.3 18% 1.2 16% 1.1 14% 1.0 12% 0.9 10% LPG/DME DME开工率 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 11 30050 25050 20050 15050 10050 5050 50 2021 2022 2023 190,000 180,000 170,000 160,000 150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 2020 2021 2022 2023 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1月 2月 3月4月5月 6月 7月 8月9月10月11月12月 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 宝鸡 达拉特旗 榆林 2021-10-29 2021-11-29 2021-12-29 2022-01-29 2022-02-28 2022-03-31 2022-04-30 2022-05-31 2022-06-30 2022-07-31 2022-08-31 2022-09-30 2022-10-31 2022-11-30 2022-12-31 2023-01-31 2023-02-28 2023-03-31 2023-04-30 2023-05-31 2023-06-30 2023-07-31 2023-08-31 2023-09-30 2023-10-31 2023-11-30 - 2350 100 2250 50 2150 2050 0 1950 1850 -50 1750 -100 1650 1550 2023-06-082023-07-08 -150 2023-08-082023-09-082023-10-082023-11-08 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 2021 2022 2023 - - 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 2021 2022 2023 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 2021 2022 2023 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 PP-3MAPE/MA 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 (500) (1000) (1500) (2000) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 PP/MAMA/UR 1300 1100 900 700 500 300 100 -100 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q4800 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 700 500 Q5500 Q5500 55 136 310008 4008888910