2023年四季度期权展望：静水深流

I2023 9 2023 50ETF 1 50ETF 1 2ETF 2 1 2 3 1 2 2023 zhouxiaoshu@nawaa.com :Z0014889 jieting@nawaa.com F03114103 2023I20239 1.......................................................................................................1 2.2023.............................................................................6 3...............................................................................................11 4..................................................................................................36 i 2021/5/17 1. 1.1 2023 1.1 9 20.58% 70% 1.1.150ETF 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 2021/6/11 2021/7/9 50ETF 80% 2021/8/5 2021/9/1 2021/9/30 2021/11/3 2021/11/30 2021/12/27 2022/1/24 14.15% 2022/2/25 2022/3/24 2022/4/22 2022/5/24 2022/6/21 20 2022/7/18 2022/8/12 2023 2022/9/8 2022/10/13 2022/11/9 9 2022/12/6 25 2023/1/3 2023/2/6 2023/3/3 2023/3/30 I2023 50ETF 50ETF 2023/4/27 2023/5/30 2023/6/28 2023/7/25 9 2023/8/21 1 2023/9/15 1.1.2 2023I20239 50ETF 50ETF 50ETF 1.2. 9 50BP 925 50% 11.14% 5.61% 60% 2 1.2.1 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 1.2.2 1.3. 2022/2/10 2022/3/1 2022/3/18 2022/4/8 2022/4/27 2022/5/19 2022/6/8 2022/6/27 2022/7/14 2022/8/2 2022/8/19 2022/9/7 2022/9/27 2022/10/21 2022/11/9 2022/11/28 2022/12/15 2023 2023/1/4 2023/1/30 2023/2/16 2023/3/7 2023/3/24 2023/4/13 2023/5/5 2023/5/24 2023/6/12 I2023 2023/7/3 2023/7/20 2023/8/8 9 2023/8/25 3 2023/9/13 9 25 1.3.1 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 1.3.2 2022/2/10 2022/3/1 2022/3/18 2022/4/8 2022/4/27 2022/5/19 2022/6/8 2022/6/27 2022/7/14 2022/8/2 19.92% 90% 2022/8/19 2022/9/7 2022/9/27 2022/10/21 2022/11/9 2022/11/28 2022/12/15 2023 2023/1/4 2023/1/30 2023/2/16 2023/3/7 11.85% 2023/3/24 2023/4/13 2023/5/5 2023/5/24 2023/6/12 I2023 2023/7/3 2023/7/20 2023/8/8 9 2023/8/25 4 2023/9/13 1.4.2023    9 2.2023 2.1. 5% GDP 662150ETF 18.06%13.43% 60% 70% 2.1.150ETF 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 2021/5/17 2021/6/9 2021/7/5 2021/7/28 2021/8/20 2021/9/14 2021/10/18 2021/11/10 2021/12/3 2021/12/28 2022/1/21 2022/2/22 2022/3/17 2022/4/13 2022/5/11 2022/6/6 2022/6/29 2022/7/22 2022/8/16 2022/9/8 2022/10/11 2022/11/3 2022/11/28 2022/12/21 2023/1/16 2023/2/15 2023/3/10 2023/4/4 2023/4/28 2023/5/29 2023/6/21 5.00% 2.5 50ETF92.4 2.79% 922 60 16.06% 20 2023630 50ETF 2.542 50ETF 8 2.5 50ETF82.4 823 50ETF9 2.1.2 1.2 1.15 1.1 1.05 1 0.95 0.9 2.2. 2023 4140.2 10.3% CF401 CF30917.49% CF309 19.67%CF401 2.2.1 20.00% 19.50% 19.00% 18.50% 18.00% 17.50% 17.00% 16.50% 16.00% 7.59% 3.67% CF309CF311CF401CF403CF405 202373 16785 / CF309C16800 CF401C1680083 9 23 2.2.2 1.12 1.1 1.08 1.06 1.04 1.02 1 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.9 2.3. 6 21 40% 2.3.1 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 20237 3 2022/2/10 50% 2022/2/25 2022/3/14 2022/3/29 2022/4/15 2022/5/5 2022/5/20 2022/6/7 2022/6/22 2022/7/7 2022/7/22 2022/8/8 17.91% 2022/8/23 18120 2022/9/7 2022/9/23 2022/10/17 2022/11/1 / 2022/11/16 2023 2022/12/1 2022/12/16 2023/1/3 AL2309P18000 2023/1/18 2023/2/9 18.45% 2023/2/24 2023/3/13 2023/3/28 I2023 2023/4/13 2023/4/28 2023/5/18 9 2023/6/2 8 2023/6/19 ETF AL2309P17500 825 945 39 / 2.4. 2.1 922 3. 3.1.50ETF 3.1.1.50ETF 2023922 50ETF 3.57 263.54 200.49 434.20 75.37 228.99 1396.89 7.85 22.26 2.57 3.1.150ETF 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2020/7/162021/7/162022/7/162023/7/16 3.1.250ETF CPR 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2020/7/162021/7/162022/7/162023/7/16 () () CPR 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 3.1.350ETF CPR 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 00 2020/7/162021/7/162022/7/162023/7/16 () () CPR CPR 1.89 1.13 0.86 CPR CPR 1.17 1.91 0.67 CPR50ETF50ETF CPR 50ETF CPR CPR 3.1.450ETF 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 1.1.2.50ETF 50ETF 50ETF 50ETF 3.1.550ETF 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% 2050ETFIV-HV 3.1.650ETF 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00%9M 3M 1M 3.1.750ETF 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% 202307212023082220230922 3.1.850ETF 20.00% 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1M2M3M6M9M1Y 202307212023082220230922 3.2 300 3.2.1300 2023922 300 1791.29 18.90 10.06 4.08 22.32 17.15 4.88 12.232.18 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2020/7/162021/7/162022/7/162023/7/16 wind 3.2.2 CPR 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 00 2020/7/162021/7/162022/7/162023/7/16 () () CPR wind 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2020/7/162021/7/162022/7/162023/7/16 () () CPR