2023四季度集运展望：欲渡黄河冰塞川

I 9 20232023 - 20111290 818 Contango 8 1112 1112 Z0003508 fxiaoyan@nawaa.com0571-87839259 F03100647 yjc@nawaa.com 1.2023.....................................................................1 1.1.............................................................................................1 1.2....................................................................................................1 1.3................................................................................................1 2.2023............................................................................2 2.1..............................................................................2 2.2.................................................3 2.3..............................................................................5 2.3.1....................................................................................................5 2.3.2.............................................................................................8 2.4...........................................10 2.4.1..................................................................................................10 2.4.2............................................................................14 2.4.3..................................................................................................17 3....................................................................................19 3.1...........................................................................................19 3.2...........................................................................................20 4........................................................................................24 5...............................................................................................26 2.1 2023 SCFIS 9 25 ....................................................2 2.2 2023 SCFIS 9 25 ....................................................2 2.3 2023 9 22...................................3 2.4 9 22 ................................................3 2.5 ...............................................4 2.6 .....................................................................5 2.7 .....................................................................5 2.3.18 ............................................6 2.3.2 ....................................6 2.3.3 .......................................................6 2.3.48 ..............................7 2.3.5 8 ..................8 2.3.6 HICP ......................................................................8 2.3.7 ................................................................................9 2.3.8: PMI SCFIS:9 2.4.1 2021 2023 9 26 .........10 2.4.2 2015 2023 8 .....................................11 2.4.3 ..................................................................................11 2.4.4 .............................................12 2.4.5 .......................................................................13 2.4.6 ...................................................................13 2.4.7 ..........................................................................14 2.4.8 ................................................................15 2.4.9 ...................................................................15 2.4.1 9 26 .........................16 2.4.10 .....................................................................17 2.4.11 .....................................................................17 2.4.12 : : - .....................18 3.1.1 (NCFI)19 3.1.2 .......................................................................20 3.2.1 PPI ............................................................21 3.2.2 OECD ..................................................................22 3.2.3 27 .................................................................22 3.2.4 .................................................23 4.1 ........................................................24 4.2 ...................................................................25 5.1 ETS26 1.2023 1.1 11 11 8 120.50% 1.2 1.3 2.2023 2.1 2023 704.62 SCFIS 7 1110.0225.33% 925SCFIS9.7% 79.01% 724.71NCFI 56.87% 400 6 2016 9SCFIS 7 461.98 922 NCFI 375.74 811 8 18.74% NCFI712.00%16.67% SCFI 8 1043.54754.84922SCFINCFI 12.63%20.93%911.71596.83 2.12023SCFIS 25 2.22023SCFIS 25 1,250.0 1,150.0 1,050.0 950.0 850.0 750.0 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 650.0 1,400.0 9 9 1,300.0 1,200.0 1,100.0 1,000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 600.0 iFinD iFinD 5,000.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 0.0 2.4 6,000.0 5,000.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 0.0 2.2 818 34 936.0 2012-03-16 iFinD 2012-09-16 2013-03-16 EC2404 2013-09-16 2014-03-16 2014-09-16 SCFI EC2406EC2408 2015-03-16 2015-09-16 17.47% 12099 2016-03-16 2016-09-16 2017-0