2023年丹麦房地产市场展望

REPORT CreatingResilience Market Outlook 2023 DENMARK REALESTATE CBRERESEARCH JK_R_SLAKCI .IalIryP..li.. P33=taceM3*<33,l3:k2C2:1Danimrk Introduction wielcuntutr2023adilicnofcBREDurirriark'sCutluukresurt,dezilinyuulperspecliveurliklytrendsiniuachsec.orufLhecorirlercial Itisadifficultcimetoforecasthowthpropertymarketwilldeveap.weallthcLghtCoviDwasdiffult.huttastwiasjustarinterludetc hatvesreexperiencingnrw.Thebicchalengessrehighenera:prices,particuilarlvEuropeallnaturslgaspricesandrigherinterestrates Onthcot'rhard.theEuropoacconcmics,inparticulartheNordiccountrise,havcpcrformexlbettertharanybcdythoughtcheywouldin 2022. Thetrendvearegoingthroughtendstomakethemarketthinkqu'tenegatively.lrvestorsa'equietatthemoment:manyoftheTaresittingctlfence.Buttlhangeinsentimentwillhapoenatorpcint.Thebaginningof2023willorohablybequt.InQ2,slowvlybut surely,investarsselikelytogetreadyagsinforresllccaions,startingtobuikdspipeine.Inthesecandhalfofthevear,weareexpectirgtcsoomorodealactvity The'mpactcftherepricingwearecurrentlyexseriencirgwllbesubstanti=l.butrianyindicatorspointowardsrepricingbeingshort-lived. PerAlexandarWeinreich Itisnctgo'ngtobethes=metoralllocationsandallsectors.butit'sgoingtosematerial.Thisisnctverygoocnews'ortaosewtohaveinvestedinthepastthreeyesrs.Hawever.ifvouarelco<ingtoinvest,thefuturesudcenlygo:muchbrighter.Thnewequilbriumwillbe sxetiledamongcommerclalrealestatebuyersandsellersaswells3investorreturnexxctations. wehavoproducedthisrepxorlLohelpyounavigalcthomacieonvironmonlwooxpxelin2023,ardwolook[orwardLoworkingwilnyod +2.23C3RCIN: 01 Economy R=tareMa*<3.r3,il:k22:1Danimgrk Keytakeaways 01 ArioderategcossionisexpattecitoresuItinddecreasedeccnornicdctivityf-crranintlstecleveltoamorestablestate.Tniscanpartlybeattributedtcthcombinacior ofhighinflatic.anclarestrictivemanetarypolicyainedatachivinginflaziontargets. 02 n223,IIsprojectedtaatunmolomntvrisefromitscroscntlowristcrlcal lovcl.ospiloLhis,thocccnormywiIccnlinucleoxhibi,unreiovuddemardfo Isbour,resultinginarelativelynildinureaseinunen'ploynen. Iriflaliorihazlikelyrowehuuilspuakaridshouldrorrialiseduelodec'uasing demandandstabil'singenergysrices,However,adelayincoststransmittedtc consumerswilkeepinflaticrelevacedatthebeginingcftheyear. ThoDanishconliabarkwillkccpincicasinsikcyinlcics,1aLoe,vhichic anticipatadtcreachapeakintherid-yoar,Theateofincraaseispradictedtcslowastheneutrarateapp'caches.Tneinterestratesarelikelydeclinegradjallyas infstionclecelerstes.However,therateisexoectednstabilseatahigherlevel. 05 Increasingmartgagerateswilinhibithousingdemand.permstingthroughth.cconomy.Aseverehcusing-irducedrecessicnIs:hcwerer,urlikelyduerostrlczer MelLgagoregjulalionsanchevell-cushicnolinancescfthsDanishposulelionl. UJK_R_2LACI*+2123C3RCIN: R=ta.eMa*<3.rs,il:k22:1Danmrk Gl+rygR.ili. TleDanisheconomyispreparedforamoderatedownturn Figure1:GDPGrourthandCPIInflation,Denmark 125 11.C Forecast 1.C-0 9.5 0.75 50 3.50 5.5 *0.25 3.G C.Co 3.5 0.25 2.0 0.50 0.5 5.75 -1.5 2022:21 2022Q2 202202 202204 202501202362 20230320204 2024Q1 202-102 2021Q5 202104 C31CrWtt(LFS) Infla1(RHS) Seurce,OxlrdCromics.C3FCResrich Thepastyearhaswitnessedsigriicanteconcmictluctuaticrs,includina4yesrhichinlationandasnsrpinreaseinirterest ratos.BascdocuTenttrends,It$projccoxdlthatthcDanishcccnon1ywiIcnlerarricdorlerocossionin2023.wilhaprujccled GCPgrowthctjus:O.%.However.itisan.icip=tectnatthe whiletraditionalinclir:atorssur:hascpanc:gavernmentfinsnces haveycttoinlicatoanimixendingreccsskon:othefactorssuchas inflaLioranccurporalofinancialper'ormancchavcbounLo cetericrate.Additicnslly,theexpectaticnctrisinginterestraeshas furtherclcjdedtheoutlockfortneyearahead. eccnomywiIrecoverin2024,with=projectedg'cwthof2.0%. t>onsuImerrnnfidenr:erlec'easedmateriallyin2022,wlir:himparted rotallsslosslgnficantly,Thisim>sctis.howover,belovodtobc Tolalivolysholl-livod.OrthouLhcrhan:d,busirossuswillrios!likoly baforcedtcirnplementcostsaving'Tleasurestcm=intsin prcfitability,resulinginjcalossesandanoverallincreasein unempaymentd.Jrng223.Hnveve,i:shnt.lMhenntedthat unempoymentwilonlyrisemoderatelyasthcrrcrmainsdemand folbc.IriniwoiLuirisuclors. Despitetneindicatorspcintingtowercsarecession,thereare mitigatirgfaatcrsthatsuggestitwillbemoc.eratecne.Oneofthe mairresscnsisthestrongfiancialstancingcfhotlhousehrlds andc>rporations-hetightlalxourmarkotisfurtorcxooctccto picvenlasigrificanlincreasuir:ununployinuril.Acdilionally,Lhe Danisheconormyhasarelativelyowsensitivitytcglotalindustrial cycles,Fartularlyduetcthesigrificartpresen.eofche pharmace.ticairdus.ry. R=tareMa*<3.rs,il:k22:1Danmrk l+rygR.ili. Hlghastinflatlonlnfourdacadas Inflationisexpectadtonormallsein2023 Theunderhyingpricepressuresdrivingirflazionintle Gconomysreaelievedtoavaraachertreirpeakdueto Cerrirricdityp'iceshdv=lsostartudto"allafter=vuar oftluccuationsduetogecpol'ticalevents.herefore.the driverscfinflatianareexpectedtalberesolvec. grsdualyduring2079. 80% Dr::irLDulc'1ias:rits. mte