全球基金经理调查：现金激增但未出现股票投降

Cash surge but no equity capitulation 17 March 2026 BofA March Global Fund Manager Survey Investment StrategyGlobal Bottom Line: March FMS turns bearish as Iran & private credit concerns end“frothybull”sentiment of recent months; growth optimism tanks and cash levels surge to 4.2%(contrarian FMS cash“sell signal”over), FMS bearish enough to sell oil >$100/bbl, sellDXY >100, buy GT30 at 5%, buy SPX 6600; that said, BofA positioning metrics far from On Macro: global growth optimism slumps to net 7% from 39%, inflation expectationsjump to net 45% from 9%, rate cut optimism lowest since Feb’23; but no one pricing inrecession…probability of hard landing just 5% (vs. 46% no landing, 44% soft landing). Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com On Risk: geopolitics & inflation replace AI bubble as biggest tail risks, and 63% sayprivate equity/credit most likely source of systemic credit event; most crowded FMStrades = long gold & long global semis; most likely result for US midterms = DEMHouse/GOP Senate (54%), but investor probability of DEM sweep (28%) on the rise. Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com On Asset Allocation: March rotation from“boom”(e.g., banks) to“stagflation”(e.g.,staples); more broadly, US$ short-covering has been modest, investors are longcommodities (most since Apr'22), and retain big OW in equities, especially EM (mostsince Feb’21), Japan (most since May'24), banks, industrials, in sharp contrast to a big Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Jessica GuoInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0033jessica.guo@bofa.com Contrarian Trades: long bonds-short commodities, long UK-short EM, long consumer-short industrials; FMS also says lightly held Mag7, consumer and China stocks set tooutperform the still heavily owned EM, Japan, semis, banks and industrials in an end of Notes to Readers Source for all tables and charts:BofA Fund Manager Survey, BofA Trading Rules & Tools in Mar’26 vs. at Big Lows of past 15 years Survey period Mar 6th-12th, 2026 210 panellists with $589bn AUMparticipated in the March survey. 181participants with $529bn AUM responded to the Global FMSquestions and 103 participants with$243bn AUM responded to the Regional FMS questions.How to join the FMS panel Investors/clients are encouraged tosign up to participate in the Survey. This can be done by contactingMichael Hartnettor your BofA sales Participants in the survey will continueto receive the full set of monthly Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources toabsorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of OW: overweight; UW: underweightAA: asset allocation Charts of the Month In the March2026 BofA Global Fund ManagerSurvey, our broadest measure of FMSsentiment, based on cash levels, equityallocation, and global growth expectations,dropped sharply from 8.2 to 5.6, a 6-month Global growth expectations droppedsharply,with just 7% expecting a stronger globaleconomy, down from 39% in Feb’26. BofA FMS cash levels jumped sharply from3.4% last month (and 3.2% record low inJanuary) to 4.3% in March, the biggest jump Cash levels are an input into the BofA Bull &Bear Indicator, which is down to 8.5 from 8.7. Bull & Bear Indicator triggered a contrarian 46% of FMS investors see“no landing”as themost likely outcome for the global economy,while another 44% expect a“soft landing.” “No landing”has been the consensus amongFMS investors for three months in a row now. While investors are more bearish on globalgrowth in March, the probability of a“hard” Our March survey shows the first hit of asecond wave higher in inflationexpectations…net 45% expect higher globalCPI in the next 12 months (up from 9% a Higher CPI expectations are driving a rise inrate expectations…net 17% of investors expectlower short-term rates (from 46% a monthago, and 78% in Aug’25)…lowest since Feb’23. There has been acyclical peak in expectationsfor a steeper yield curve…net 56% expect the3mo-10yr yield curve to steepen, down sharply Source:BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Bloomberg Asked if AI stocks are in a bubble, 51% of FMSinvestors said no, while 38% said yes. FMS investors expect AI to have the biggestimpact on corporate profits via higherproductivity (27%), followed closely bycommodity inflationvia AI buildout (26%).Another 22% believe AI’s greatest impact will Net22% of FMS investors believe companiesare overinvesting (too much capex), down froma record high of 33% last month. Concerns over AI hyperscalers overspending oncapex have eased in the past few week