全球基金经理调查 ： 相当全面的恶霸

Pretty Fully Bully 16 April 2024 BofAApril Global Fund Manager SurveyBottom Line: most bullish FMS since Jan’22; biggest jump in global growth optimism Investment StrategyGlobal since May’20, record jump in allocation to commodities, FMS cash levels drop to 4.2%from 4.4%; bull sentiment not quite at“close-your-eyes-and-sell”levels (i.e. cash <4%)but risk assets tactically much more vulnerable to bad news than good. On Macro: first time since Dec’21 investors say global growth (net 11%) to accelerate,78% say global recession unlikely,“no landing”expectations surge to 36% (was 7% inJanuary),“soft landing”falls to 54%, hard landing at 7% (was 30% in Oct’23–Chart 1). On Rates: 76% expect 2 or more Fed cuts in’24 vs 8% saying no cuts; but investorsless optimistic on inflation & bonds (38% expect lower bond yields vs 62% in Dec’23). On Risks & Crowds: biggest tail risks = inflation (41%) & geopolitics (24%); catalyststo drive defensive risk-off: 33% say 4.5% U-rate, 30% say 10-year UST yield >4.5%,29% say oil >$100/bl; most“crowded trades”long Mag 7 (52%) & short China (16%). Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com On AA, Regions & Sectors: largest drop in bond allocation since Jul’03, biggest 3-month drop in cash since Dec'20, record jump in commodity allocation, gold most“overvalued”since Aug’20, equity allocation at 27-month high; big rotation to materials(biggest jump ever), energy, industrials & Europe (biggest overweight since Feb’22), andaway from cash, EM & staples (UW largest since Nov’21). ElyasGalou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com FMSContrarian Trades: long bonds-short stocks, long cash-short commodities, longChina-short Japan, long staples-short industrials. Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com What is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months? Notes to Readers Source for all tables and charts:BofA Fund Manager Survey,DataStream Survey period 5thto 11thApr 2024 260 panellists with $719bn AUMparticipated in the April survey. 224participants with $638bn AUMresponded to the Global FMSquestions and 144 participants with$319bn AUM responded to theRegional FMS questions. Trading ideas and investment strategiesdiscussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. How tojoin the FMS panelInvestors/clients are encouraged tosign up to participate in the Survey.This can be done by contactingMichael Hartnettor your BofA salesrepresentative. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 23 to 25.12681954 Participants in the survey will continueto receive the full set of monthlyresults but only for the relevant monthin which they participate. Timestamp: 16 April 2024 12:30AM EDT Charts of the Month AprilFMS sentimentis at the mostbullishlevel since Jan'22. Percentile rank of FMS growth expectations, cash level, and equity allocation Our broadest measure of FMS sentiment,based on cash levels, equity allocation, andeconomic growth expectations, jumped to 5.8from 4.6. Investorsturned net bullish on the macro forthe first time since Dec'21…net 11% expect astrongereconomy over the next 12 months(jumping from net 12% expecting aweakereconomy in Mar'24). While global growth expectations are pickingup rapidly (to the highest since Sep'21), theyare still playing 'catch up' with equity prices. The average cash level of FMS investors fell to4.2% from 4.4% of AUM,very close to the<4% contrarian sell signal for equities. FMS average cash level (% of AUM) Per BofA Global FMS Cash Rule…when FMSaverage cash balance rises >5%, triggers a buysignal for equities (contrarian bullish signal),<4% triggers a sell signal for equities(contrarian bearish signal) 78% of FMS investors say a global recession is"unlikely" within the next 12 months. This is up from 65% of investors last month,and the highest level since Feb'22. Expectations for an "economic boom" (above-trend growth, above-trend inflation) havespiked to 24% (up rapidly from 12% lastmonth and 5% in Jan'24). While "stagflation" (below-tre