全球基金经理调查 ： 相当全面的恶霸

GlobalFundManagerSurvey PrettyFullyBully Accessibleversion BofAAprilGlobalFundManagerSurvey BottomLine:mostbullishFMSsinceJan’22;biggestjumpinglobalgrowthoptimismsinceMay’20,recordjumpinallocationtocommodities,FMScashlevelsdropto4.2%from4.4%;bullsentimentnotquiteat“close-your-eyes-and-sell”levels(i.e.cash<4%)butriskassetstacticallymuchmorevulnerabletobadnewsthangood. OnMacro:firsttimesinceDec’21investorssayglobalgrowth(net11%)toaccelerate,78%sayglobalrecessionunlikely,“nolanding”expectationssurgeto36%(was7%inJanuary),“softlanding”fallsto54%,hardlandingat7%(was30%inOct’23–Chart1). OnRates:76%expect2ormoreFedcutsin’24vs8%sayingnocuts;butinvestorslessoptimisticoninflation&bonds(38%expectlowerbondyieldsvs62%inDec’23). OnRisks&Crowds:biggesttailrisks=inflation(41%)&geopolitics(24%);catalyststodrivedefensiverisk-off:33%say4.5%U-rate,30%say10-yearUSTyield>4.5%,29%sayoil>$100/bl;most“crowdedtrades”longMag7(52%)&shortChina(16%). OnAA,Regions&Sectors:largestdropinbondallocationsinceJul’03,biggest3-monthdropincashsinceDec'20,recordjumpincommodityallocation,goldmost“overvalued”sinceAug’20,equityallocationat27-monthhigh;bigrotationtomaterials(biggestjumpever),energy,industrials&Europe(biggestoverweightsinceFeb’22),andawayfromcash,EM&staples(UWlargestsinceNov’21). FMSContrarianTrades:longbonds-shortstocks,longcash-shortcommodities,longChina-shortJapan,longstaples-shortindustrials. Chart1:Expectationsfor“NoLanding”surging Whatisthemostlikelyoutcomefortheglobaleconomyinthenext12months? 16April2024 InvestmentStrategyGlobal MichaelHartnettInvestmentStrategistBofAS +16468551508 michael.hartnett@bofa.com ElyasGalou>>InvestmentStrategistBofASE(France) +33187700087 elyas.galou@bofa.com AnyaShelekhinInvestmentStrategistBofAS +16468553753 anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-JeeJungInvestmentStrategistBofAS +16468550389 myung-jee.jung@bofa.com 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% NolandingSoftlandingHardlanding 3% 4% 9%11% 5% 7%6%7% 19% 23% 36% 65% 62% 54% 20% 21% 26% 17% 23% 21% 30% 21% 59% 64% 66% 68% 67% 64% 65% 71% 11%11%7% Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24Apr'24 NotestoReaders Sourceforalltablesandcharts:BofAFundManagerSurvey,DataStream Surveyperiod5thto11thApr2024 260panellistswith$719bnAUMparticipatedintheAprilsurvey.224participantswith$638bnAUMrespondedtotheGlobalFMS Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey BofAGLOBALRESEARCH questionsand144participantswith $319bnAUMrespondedtotheRegionalFMSquestions. Tradingideasandinvestmentstrategiesdiscussedhereinmaygiverisetosignificantriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.Investorsshouldhaveexperienceinrelevantmarketsandthefinancialresourcestoabsorbanylossesarisingfromapplyingtheseideasorstrategies. >>Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofBofASandisnotregistered/qualifiedasaresearchanalystundertheFINRArules. Referto"OtherImportantDisclosures"forinformationoncertainBofASecuritiesentitiesthattakeresponsibilityfortheinformationhereininparticularjurisdictions. BofASecuritiesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithissuerscoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision. Refertoimportantdisclosuresonpage23to25.12681954 Timestamp:16April202412:30AMEDT HowtojointheFMSpanel Investors/clientsareencouragedtosignuptoparticipateintheSurvey.ThiscanbedonebycontactingMichaelHartnettoryourBofAsalesrepresentative. Participantsinthesurveywillcontinuetoreceivethefullsetofmonthlyresultsbutonlyfortherelevantmonthinwhichtheyparticipate. ChartsoftheMonth Chart2:BofAGlobalFMSsentimentmostbullishsinceJan'22 PercentilerankofFMSgrowthexpectations,cashlevel,andequityallocation AprilFMSsentimentisatthemostbullishlevelsinceJan'22. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 29/11 1 Iraqwar QE1 BRICS US/EU debtcrisis CNY deval Taxcuts Tradewar Bluewave COVIDSVB Apr'24 OurbroadestmeasureofFMSsentiment,basedoncashlevels,equityallocation,andeconomicgrowthexpectations,jumpedto5.8from4.6. 0GFC '01'03'05'07'09'11'13'15'17'19'21'23'25 PercentilerankofFMSgrowthexpectations+cashAA+equityAA(scale1-10) Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey BofAGLOBALRESEARCH Chart3:1sttimesinceDec’21investorsexpectglobalgrowthtoaccelerate Net%expectingastrongerglobaleconomyvsS&P500(YoY%) Oct'98Dec'00 Jan'19 Jul'08 Mar'20 Jul'22 150Net%ExpectingStrongerEconomyS&P500(YoY%,RHS)100 50 0 -50 -100 '94'96'98'00'02'04'06'08'10'12'14'16'18'20'22'24 Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey;Bloomberg 70% 50% 30% 10% -10% -30% -50% InvestorsturnednetbullishonthemacroforthefirsttimesinceDec'21…net11%expectastrongereconomyoverthenext12months(jumpingfromnet12%expectingaweakereconomyinMar'24). Whileglobalgrowthexpectationsarepickinguprapidly(tothehighestsinceSep'21),theyarestillplaying'catchup'withequityprices. BofAGLOBALRESEARCH Chart4:FMScashlevelfallsto4.2%from4.4%ofAUM FMSaveragecashlevel(%ofAUM) TheaveragecashlevelofFMSinvestorsfellto4.2%from4.4%ofAUM,veryclosetothe <4%contrariansellsignalforequities. May'0