2025年银行业与资本市场首席执行官展望

Foreword The banking and capital markets sector has historicallyproved effective at pivoting and adjusting to change.Despite recent shocks such as tariffs, wars, inflation,rapid rate hikes, liquidity scares, and credit risks, CEOsfeel their organizations have the resources to thrive, AI canhelp improve customer engagement and increaseunderstanding of customers, but banks must avoid de-personalizing their interactions and losing the human touch. The KPMG 2025 Banking and Capital Markets CEOOutlook reflects these underlying geopolitical, economicand market conditions, and provides some interestingsuggestions as to how CEOs are tackling the manychallenges to find a winning competitive formula. Ourglobal organization of professionals across KPMGmember firms are always available to discuss these Inorganic growth remains firmly on the agenda, not leastto acquire and/or partner with fintech expertise and accesscustomers who prefer a digital experience. At the sametime, bank CEOs are aware of preserving the trust premium Technology, in particular AI, presents a hugeopportunity, but also a challenge in terms of whereto prioritize, how to achieve a measurable return oninvestment (ROI), and how to ensure responsibleand safe adoption to maintain trust. Banks need tomodernize legacy IT, cope with rising financial crimerisk, made more difficult by sophisticated scams using Geoff RushGlobal Head of Banking andCapital Markets Executivesummary In a volatile world, banking CEOs areremarkably upbeatabout the prospects for their companies and their industry,with positive expectations for business and earningsgrowth. Appetite for M&A remains high, although this hasshifted somewhat towards more strategic transactions.Those expressing interest in higher-impact M&A are likelyto seek market consolidation — especially in regions like Balancing humans and machines is becoming one of thekey priorities, to get the most out of AI, and reassurepeople that technology is there to make their lives morefulfilling — not simply take their jobs. There is a rethink of 25% of CEOs identified ‘strategicdifferentiation’ — gainingcompetitive advantagethrough innovation, customer In a highly regulated sector, sustainability reportingremains a major challenge for banking, and complianceis high on CEOs’ agendas. However, they alsoacknowledge the business benefits of clean energy,smart buildings and low-emission value chains, and areembedding sustainability into their business strategy AI has become central to banking strategy,transforming the operations and employee andcustomer experience. Banks are acceleratinginvestment in AI, and rolling out AI at scale to reapbenefits in productivity and enhanced customer Over its history, the banking sector has shownremarkable resilience in adapting to periods of changeand uncertainty. Our 2025 CEO Outlook suggestscontinued optimism combined with realism, as banks Banking leaders recognize the seismic impact of AI ontheir workforces, with an urgent need for upskilling andredeployment, as AI radically transforms the shape of jobs. Keyfindings Tuning your workforceinto an AI world Achieving strategic advantagethrough ESG 78%say AI workforce readiness orAI upskilling could negativelyimpact the organization. say sustainabilityis embedded into 83%of CEOs areconfidentin company growth, upfrom 78% last year.Economic outlook andbusiness confidence AI-powered technological innovation 79% say AI has redefinedentry-level skills (up from53% in 2024) and 80% sayit is reshaping workforce prioritize complianceand reportingstandards to 41% expect 2.5–4.99%earnings growth, upfrom 30% in 2024; 20%expect earnings growth of5–9.99%, up from 13%. 46% anticipate moderate-impact M&A activity,high-impact M&A expect ROI from AIinvestments within 1–3 years, of CEOs identified bridgingthe skills gap and identifyingcandidates with suitableskills as the top two view AI as a driverof responsible ESGinnovation; 72%say it helps identifyresource efficiency 86% of CEOs say cybersecurityis the most likely factorto impact organizationalgrowth in next three years. say ethical challenges are the biggestobstacles to implementation. Economicoutlookandbusinessconfidence Despiteliving in uncertain times, 83 percent of CEOs surveyed are confident in theircompany’s growth prospects in the next three years, up from 78 percent in 2024. Theyhave similar sentiments about the banking sector as a whole, with growth expectationssurging from 66 percent last year to 81 percent in 2025. Leaders are very focusedon growth, with technology as a key enabler, helping to broaden channels throughe-commerce, mobility and health apps — and boost margins through AI-powered This optimism is reflected in expectations of earnings growth, which have alsorisen significantly. The proportionof CEOs anticipating a 2.5–4.99 percent uptick in earnings has leapt from 30 percent in 2025 to 41 percent, while A cautious but positive attitude to M&A Tri