2025年下半年坎帕拉房地产市场绩效评估

Knight Frank Uganda’s performance review of Kampala'sproperty market over the second half of 2025 H2 2025 knightfrank.com/research Executive Summary Kampala’s real estate market demonstrated resilience inthe second half of 2025, underpinned by macroeconomicstability,contained inflation,and sustained infrastructureinvestment. Economic growth strengthened to 6.3% in FY2024/25, marking a full recovery to pre-COVID-19 growthlevels,while inflation remained well below the Bank ofUganda’s 5% target. The Uganda Shilling maintained relativestability, supported by a strong balance of payments positiondrivenby record coffee exports and increased foreignexchangeinflows.However,market sentiment remainedcautious ahead of the January 2026 general elections andreduced donor-funded activity. Purpose-built and well-located industrial facilities continuedto outperform, while infrastructure constraints limited short-term supply growth. Overall, Kampala’s property market enters 2026 on a stablebut cautious footing. While near-term risks linked to electionsandoil-sector timelines persist,long-term fundamentalsremain supportive, particularly for industrial, suburban office,and convenience-led retail assets. 6.3% Theresidential sectorsoftened modestly, particularly withinprime expatriate neighbourhoods, as increased apartmentsupply and shifting tenant demographics exerted downwardpressure on rents. Two-bedroom units recorded the sharpestrentalcorrection,while three-bedroom units remainedcomparativelyresilient.Occupancy levels held broadlystable,supported by growing uptake from high-incomeUgandan nationals. The sales market experienced increaseddistressed listings, with strongest demand concentratedin studio and one-bedroom units driven by investment-ledpurchases for the short-let market. Economic growth rate 3.1% Moderate rise in headline inflation 200,000sqmOffice space in the pipeline Theoffice sectortransitioned firmly into a tenant-favourablecycle following the delivery of new Grade A+ stock, whichdrove a pronounced “flight to quality.” Leasing activity wasdominated by relocations rather than new demand, resultingin rising vacancy levels within older and Grade AB buildings.Rental levels remained stable for Grade A+ offices butsoftened for Grade A and AB space. Demand remainedconcentrated in smaller, flexible office units and suburbanlocations, reflecting hybrid working models, cost sensitivity,and pre-election caution. 15%Rise in shopper footfall Theretail sectorremained resilient, supported by stronggrowth in footfall across prime and neighbourhood malls,despitesofter average spend per visit.Prime mallsapproachedsaturation,with leasing activity increasinglyselective, while suburban retail continued to benefit fromthe formalisation of informal trade and the expansion ofconvenience-ledretail formats.International brands andestablishedregional chains outperformed,supported bystrongerbrand recognition,promotions,and experientialretail offerings. 5% & 2% Drop in occupancy rates for GradeA and AB rentals respectively US$2.37 Bn Theindustrial sectorrecorded the strongest performanceacross all asset classes, with occupancy levels consistentlyabove80%and rental rates remaining firm.Demandwas driven by record coffee exports, preparations for oilproduction targeted for H2 2026, and sustained FMCG andlogistics activity. “Uganda also recorded a Balance ofPayments surplus of US$2.37 billionfor the year ending October 2025, thehighest in over 15 years.” Source:Knight Frank Uganda Economic update Economic Activity Uganda’s economy expanded by 6.3% in FY 2024/25, upfrom 6.1% in the previous year, according to revised GDP esti-mates from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS). This per-formance marks a return to Uganda’s Pre-COVID-19 growthtrajectory and confirms a full recovery from the pandemic-re-lated slowdown. Looking ahead, the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Eco-nomic Development (MOFPED) projects economic growthto strengthen toward 7.0%, with the potential for significantlyhigher growth once commercial oil production commences.The structure of the economy remained services-led, withservices contributing 42.1% of GDP, followed by agriculture(26.1%) and industry (24.3%). Uganda also recorded a Balance of Payments surplus ofUS$2.37 billion for the year ending October 2025, the high-est in over 15 years. This turnaround was driven by strongexport performance, particularly coffee and gold, alongsideimproved foreign investment inflows, supporting foreign ex-change reserves and currency stability Real Estate Activity Kampala’s real estate sector maintained positive momen-tum during H2 2025. Sector output increased from UGX3,323 billion in Q3 2025 to UGX 3,343 billion in Q4 2025,representing 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth. This steadyexpansion reflects sustained demand across residential,commercial, and industrial property segments, supported byurbanisation, infrastructure investment, and continued devel-opment ac