蔚来（NIO）第一季度收入和利润率未达预期，使2025财年目标愈发难以实现

Restricted - External Earnings ReviewNIOUNDERWEIGHTChina TechnologyPrice Targetlowered -25% from USD 4.00Price (03-Jun-25)Potential Upside/DownsideSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (USD mn)Shares Outstanding (mn)Free Float (%)52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)Dividend Yield (%)Return on Equity TTM (%)Current BVPS (USD)Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-NYSE52 Week rangeSource: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingChina TechnologyJiong Shao, CFA+1 212 526 5562jiong.shao@barclays.comBCI, USLian Xiu (Roger) Duan+1 212 526 4633lianxiu.duan@barclays.comBCI, USXinyao Song+1 212 526 6972xinyao.song@barclays.comBCI, US UnchangedPOSITIVEUnchangedUSD 3.00USD 3.53-15.0%79282245.99N/A53.2N/AN/A-0.19USD 7.71-3.02 1Q25 Earnings UpdateFinancialsRevenue:NIO delivered 42,094 units in 1Q, in line with our estimate and the mid-end of theguidance range. Total revenue for the quarter was RMB 12.0bn, missing guidance and -5.2% vs.our estimate. Within, vehicle sales revenue was RMB 9.9bn, -1.6% vs. our estimate, while othersales revenue was RMB 2.1bn, -19.3% vs. our estimate.Gross Profit:NIO reported total gross profit of RMB 919.6mn, -17.2% vs. our estimate with ablended gross margin of 7.6%, -111bps vs. our estimate. Vehicle margin was 10.2%, -80bps vs.our estimate.OPEX:R&D expenses were RMB 3.2bn, 3.6% lower than we expected, while SG&A expenses wereRMB 4.4bn, 8.3% higher than we expected. 3 Adj. operating income & Adj. net income:NIO reported adj. operating loss of RMB 5.9bn, -4.5%vs our estimate, with an adj. operating margin of -49.4%, -457bps vs. our estimate. Adj. net losswas RMB 6.3bn, -1.9% vs. our estimate.Guidance:NIO guided 2Q delivery to be between 72k and 75k, and revenue to be in the range ofRMB 19.5bn to RMB 20.1bn.FIGURE 1. Actual vs estimateSource: Company data, Barclays ResearchBusiness UpdateNIO brandofficiallydelivered new SUV ES6 and EC6 on May 20 and new sedan ET5 and ET5T onMay 27. MSRP remained similar but considering subsidies on old generation models to clearinventory, the actual prices of new models have increased by ~10% (ES6 from RMB 338k, EC6from RMB 358K, ET5/ET5T from RMB 298k). New model gross margins are also improved. Interms of future pipeline, new luxury SUV ES8 is slated for deliveries in 4Q. Looking ahead,management expects NIO brand models to achieve 25k monthly deliveries in 4Q, up from ~19kin April and ~13k in May (buyers likely await new models), which would be the highest deliveriesit has ever had. Gross margin is expected to return to 15% in 2Q and reach 20% in 4Q, with ~20%GM for ES6 and slightly higher GM for EC6.ONVO L60 orders have been growing gradually, from 4.4k in April to 6.3k in May, largelyattributable to improvement in sales productivity andefficiencyafterreorganization. SinceMarch, NIO conducted a series of cost control methods including cross-brand integration. WhileNIO and ONVO brands still sell in their own stores, the mid- to back-end departments have beenintegrated. Regional managers now manage the sales of both brands. R&D resources acrossNIO, ONVO and Firefly brands have been merged to improveefficiency.In terms of pipeline,ONVO L90, the three-row SUV, was debuted during Shanghai Auto Show and is set to launch anddeliver in 3Q; L80 is planned to launch in 4Q. Hence ONVO will have three models in total by theend of this year. Management expects 4Q ONVO brand monthly deliveries to reach 25k unitswith over 10k units of L60. That indicates nearly doubled L60 sales and likely a similar level ofdeliveries for the new model L90.4 Firefly started deliveries in late April and has achieved 3.7k units in May. It plans to roll out ininternational markets mainly Europe in 3Q by collaborating with local partners. But on NIO'soverall overseas expansion, management didn't set high expectations on deliveries.All in, NIO guided 72k-75k deliveries for 2Q, which implies 25k-28k units in June, up from 23-24kin the previous two months, mainly driven by NIO new models and ongoing ramp up in ONVOand Firefly. Management expected 2Q group gross margin to return double digits, with NIObrand back to 15% and slight improvement in ONVO. Full year guidance remained unchanged –doubled yoy deliveries and breakeven in 4Q. That means over 50k monthly deliveries by4Q (~25k from NIO and ~25k from ONVO), roughly 17-18% GM (NIO brand targeted 20%),targeted 10% adj. SG&A margin as percent of revenue, and RMB 2-2.5bn quarterly R&D costs toachieve the profitability target. We will keep monitoring deliveries, especially new models, in2H. Again, we believe successful volume is the foundation of costefficiency,and full year targetsappear challenging amid intense competition in China.Estimate Revisions and PTWe raise our 2Q deliveries estimate in line with guidance but largely maintain estimates for therest of the quarters in 2025 and 2026. We tweak our margin estimates given higher mix fromONVO and Firefly with relatively lower margins. On valuation, with a 10x FY26 EV/EBITDAm