国会预算办公室对工资收入分配的预测（英）

CBO's Projection of the Distribution of Wage Earnings

Overview: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses its projection of the earnings distribution to ensure consistency across various models and projections within the agency. These models include the individual tax model, social security model, and health insurance simulation model (HISIM).

Key Definitions:

• Wage Earnings: Defined by CBO as the sum of federally taxable wages and employee-paid retirement contributions. The Social Security Administration (SSA) refers to this as "net compensation."
• Exclusions: Employee-paid premiums for employer-sponsored health insurance, employee contributions for flexible spending accounts, employer contributions to retirement accounts, and employer-paid premiums for employer-sponsored health insurance are excluded.

Data Sources:

• SSA Net Compensation Data: Available at www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/netcomp.html.
• Social Security Administration (SSA): Annual Statistical Supplement to the Social Security Bulletin, 2023 (November 2023), table 4.B1.

Methodology:

• Interpolation: CBO interpolates the shares of net compensation using a Pareto distribution as described in Atkinson (2005).
• Projection Subgroups: CBO projects earnings shares for three subgroups of the top decile of wage earners:
  • Top percentile of earners (P100)
  • Next four highest percentiles of earners (P96-99)
  • Remaining five percentiles of earners (P91-95)

Economic Models:

• Basic Time Series Regression Models: Include a time trend and a measure of the GDP gap to control for economic cyclicality.
• Residual Share: The share of wage earnings accruing to the bottom nine deciles is calculated as a residual, with relative wage earnings shares held constant.

Projected Shares:

• Percentage Share:
  • P100 (Top Percentile): 54% (2054), 49% (2049), 44% (2039), 39% (2034), 34% (2029), 29% (2024), 24% (2019), 19% (2014), 14% (2009), 9% (2004), 4% (1999)
  • P96-99 (Next Four Highest Percentiles): 80% (2054), 75% (2044), 70% (2034), 65% (2024), 60% (2014), 55% (2004), 50% (1994), 45% (1984)
  • P91-95 (Remaining Five Percentiles): 20% (2054), 15% (2044), 10% (2034), 5% (2024), 0% (2014), -5% (2004), -10% (1994), -15% (1984)

GDP Gap:

• Ratio of GDP to Potential GDP: Used to project earnings shares for the top decile subgroups.

Social Security Taxable Ratio:

• Share of Work-Related Earnings Subject to Social Security Taxes: Below the Social Security taxable maximum.

Summary: CBO's projections provide a comprehensive view of wage earnings distribution, ensuring consistency across different models and projections. The methodology involves interpolation using a Pareto distribution and includes adjustments for economic cyclicality. The projected shares for the top decile subgroups show a decline over time, while the taxable ratio for Social Security remains below the maximum.