南华钢材策略周报：观点：反弹乏力

Z0020173F03112665 742.37-17.8715.37 432.31+2.15 1747.41-10.45 84-111+26-358+12 PMI 螺纹、热卷盘面信息 2024-08-02 2024-07-26 01 3470 3458 12 05 3537 3528 9 10 3379 3371 8 01 3569 3587 -18 05 3609 3614 -5 10 3525 3557 -32 01-05 -67 -70 3 05-10 158 157 1 10-01 -91 -87 -4 01-05 -40 -27 -13 05-10 84 57 27 10-01 -44 -30 -14 01 99 129 -30 05 72 86 -14 10 146 186 -40 :, 螺纹、热卷现货价格、基差 / 2024-08-02 2024-07-26 3386 3443 -57 3210 3220 -10 3300 3300 -60 3230 3230 0 3310 3390 -80 3500 -10 3510 -20 3400 10 01 -260 -238 -22 05 -327 -308 -19 10 -169 -151 -18 -79 -11 -68 01 -87 -15 05 -114 -30 10 -65 -57 -8 23 -37 :, 螺纹、热卷价差 / 2024-08-02 2024-07-26 - -70 -130 60 - 260 330 -70 - 190 200 -10 - 10 -10 - 110 -30 - 100 -20 280 -60 220 0 -110 -140 30 410 0 : 570 -20 热卷海外价格 2024-07-31 2024-07-24 FOB 487 507 -20 FOB 540 545 -5 FOB 590 593 -3 FOB 575 575 0 FOB 545 545 0 CFR 500 521 -21 CFR 560 560 0 CFR 640 650 -10 CFR 531 532 -1 : 钢材基本面 2024-08-02 2024-07-26 197.75 216.69 -18.94 176.65 195.36 -18.71 21.1 21.33 -0.23 223.28 229.04 -5.76 100.17 99.17 1 170.58 173.6 -3.02 20.57 20.05 0.52 247 236.62 239.61 -2.99 255 40.0428 45.6409 -5.5981 + 293.5657 302.9332 -9.3675 + 0.54 0.5469 -0.0069 945.3062 960.7747 -15.4685 : 987.06 972.52 14.54 原料价格与利润 2024-08-01 2024-07-25 PB61.5%) 785 765 20 1990 2040 -50 2340 2380 -10 1840 1900 -60 -413.07 -52.61 -460.99 -598.53 137.54 -328.76 -59.86 -257.84 -52.38 -151 -181 26 -364 -416 12 01 25.9896 15.6272 13.4336 05 109.1952 91.5048 20.5 10 -35.0456 -45.7872 12.7664 01 35.9896 50.6272 -16.5664 05 88.1952 83.5048 6.5 10 14.9544 43.2128 -27.2336 :, 2024-08-02 2024-08-02 2024-08-02 2024-08-02 2024-08-02 2024-08-02 3690 3488 3325 -22 -560 -358 -195 6 12 3735 3600 3465 -21 -350 -215 -80 0 -18 3439 3344 3258 -23 -209 -114 -28 -17 -17 3520 3417 3302 -42 -390 -287 -172 -12 -8 3648 3489 3348 -35 -391 -232 -172 -3 -45 3454 3326 -72 -252 -134 -6 9 52 : 2024-08-02 2024-07-26 01 /01 4.45 4.52 -0.07 05 /05 4.63 4.69 -0.06 10 /09 4.25 4.33 -0.1 01 /01 1.63 1.58 0.05 05 /05 1.644 1.59 0.05 10 /09 1.68 1.62 0.06 : , 2024-08-02 2024-07-26 81.28 82.33 -1.05 88.87 89.61 -0.74 61.46 65.26 -3.8 41.95 44.51 -2.56 247 6.49 15.15 -8.66 : 2024-07-31 2024-07-30 2024-07-24 115214 94214 100188 21000 15026 14735 12319 15793 2416 -1058 30230 27246 27490 2984 2740 4050 2500 4180 1550 -130 8250 7800 8600 450 -350 17000 8000 10200 9000 6800 6590 5400 6680 1190 -90 : 2024-08-02 2024-07-26 2024-08-02 2024-07-26 2024-08-02 2024-07-26 2024-08-02 2024-07-26 2024-08-02 2024-07-26 215.62 227.02 -11.4 197.75 216.69 -18.94 742.37 760.24 -17.87 191.15 193.65 -2.5 551.22 566.59 -15.37 321.3 321.22 0.08 323.45 328.21 -4.76 432.31 430.16 2.15 91.81 95.81 -4 340.5 334.35 6.15 84.44 92.02 -7.58 86.08 93.03 -6.95 156.3 154.66 1.64 80.91 79.51 1.4 75.39 75.15 0.24 85.29 83.41 1.88 84.94 85 -0.06 188.61 188.96 -0.35 42.05 41.7 0.35 234.14 235.32 -1.18 147.86 151.17 -3.31 151.84 152.55 -0.71 227.82 223.84 3.98 78.82 77.17 1.65 149 146.67 2.33 : 854.51 874.84 -20.33 844.06 875.48 -31.42 1747.41 1757.86 -10.45 484.74 487.84 -3.1 1262.67 1270.02 -7.35 螺纹、热卷盘面价格 / 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3500 RB01M.SHFffiRB05M.SHFffiRB10M.SHFffi / 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 HC01M.SHFffiHC05M.SHFffi HC10M.SHFffi 3400 3300 :, 23/0423/0823/1224/04 3500 3400 : 23/0423/0823/1224/04 , 螺纹、热卷现货价格 / 5000 4750 4500 4250 4000 3750 3500 : 螺e:HRB400E:Ф20:ffi:1螺e:HRB400E:Ф20:ffi:螺e:HRB400E:Ф20:ffi:螺e:HRB400E:Ф20:ffi:螺e:HRB400E:Ф20:ffi: 22/0622/1223/0623/1224/06 / 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 : :4.75mm:ffi:(B) :4.75mm:ffi:$(B) :4.75mm:ffi:(B) :4.75mm:ffi:¾ł(B) :4.75mm:ffi:(B) :4.75mm:ffi:(B) :4.75mm:ffi:1(B) 02/2904/3006/30 螺纹、热卷主力收盘价与持仓量 RBZL.SHFîRBZL.SHFffi(ð) / 4200 HCZL.SHFffi(ð)HCZL.SHFî / 4200 2400000 2200000 2000000 1800000 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 :, 02/2904/3006/30 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300 1100000 1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 :, 02/2904/3006/30 4150 4100 4050 4000 3950 3900 3850 3800 3750 3700 3650 3600 螺纹持仓量与仓单数量 螺纹01仓量螺纹05仓量 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 02/29 04/30 06/30 08/31 10/310 06/30 08/31 10/31 12/31 02/28 04/30 : , : , 0 20202021202220232024 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 20202021202220232024 螺纹10仓量 仓单数量:螺纹钢 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 2021202220232024 200000 160000 120000 80000 40000 20202021202220232024 10/3112/3102/2904/3006/3008/31 :, 002/2904/3006/3008/3110/31 :, 热卷持仓量与仓单数量 HC01M.SHF仓量HC10M.SHF仓量 202020212022202320242021202220232024 1250000 1250000 1000000 1000000 750000 750000 500000 500000 250000 250000 02/29 04/30 06/30 08/31 10/310 10/31 12/31 02/29 04/30 06/30 08/31 : , : , 0 HC05M.SHF仓量 热卷仓单 1250000 1000000 750000 500000 250000 0 :, 21052205230524052024 06/3008/3110/3112/3102/28 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 :, 20202021202220232024 02/2904/3006/3008/3110/31 / 6000 IepW:$IepW:IepW:№ ffi(Rę):螺eIG3№epW(15%K) 5750 5500 5250 5000 4750 4500 4250 4000 3750 350