艾昆纬：2024全球肿瘤研发趋势报告（英文版）

GlobalOncologyTrends2024 OUTLOOKTO2028 MAY 2024 Introduction Latestestimatesindicatethatthenumberofpatientsaffectedbycancerwillincreasedramaticallythroughthemiddleofthecenturyacrossallregionsoftheworld.Atthesametime,theinnovationecosystemthatdiscovers,develops,anddeliversbreakthroughtherapiesinentirenewareasofscienceisoperatingnearpeaklevels.Risingincidence,increasingnumbersoftreatedpatients,andtheresultingexpectedgrowthinspendinginthisareawilltriggeranarrayofcomplexchallengesoverthenextseveralyearsthatarereflectedinthetrendshighlightedinthisreport. Ourresearchprofileslatestavailabledataoncancerincidenceandsurvival,thecurrentstateofresearchanddevelopmentactivityinoncology,including keymechanisms,targetsandcancertypesbeinginvestigated.Wealsolookatmetricsofclinicaldevelopmentproductivity.Asmorenovelcancermedicinesarelaunched,patientaccessanduseofthosedrugsvarywidelyaroundtheworldandbysomemeasuresthegapsbetweenthescienceandpatientsisexpanding.Trendsintheuseofnovelmechanismsin specificcancertypesarereportedhereaswellascurrentexpectationsforhowspendingdynamicswillplayoutoverthenextfiveyears. Together,thiscontentisintendedtoprovideanevidencebasethatencouragesmulti-stakeholderdiscussionaboutpriorities,policies,andactionsthatcanbetakentoimproveindividualpatientoutcomes,populationhealth,andsustainabilityofhealthsystems. ThisstudywasproducedindependentlybytheIQVIAInstituteforHumanDataScienceasapublicservice,withoutindustryorgovernmentfunding.ThecontributionstothisreportofVaibhavBhalotia, TanyaBhardwaj,HeenaDarira,JuliaKern,KimMehle,BhagyashreeSitaramNawar,UrvashiPorwal,SurbhiRohilla,DurgeshSoni,TanushreeThakuranddozensofothersatIQVIAaregratefullyacknowledged. FindOutMore IfyouwishtoreceivefuturereportsfromtheIQVIAInstituteforHumanDataScienceorjoinourmailinglist,visitiqviainstitute.org. MURRAYAITKEN ExecutiveDirector IQVIAInstituteforHumanDataScience REFERENCINGTHISREPORT Pleaseusethisformatwhenreferencingcontentfromthisreport: Source:IQVIAInstituteforHumanDataScience.GlobalOncologyTrends2024:Outlookto2028,May2024.Availablefromwww.iqviainstitute.org ©2024IQVIAanditsaffiliates.Allreproductionrights,quotations,broadcasting,publicationsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicormechanical,includingphotocopy,recording,oranyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem,withoutexpresswrittenconsentofIQVIAandtheIQVIAInstitute. GlobalOncologyTrends2024:Outlookto2028 Tableofcontents Overview2 Trendsincancerincidenceandmortality4 Oncologyresearchanddevelopmentactivities9 Oncologyclinicaldevelopmentproductivity23 Novelactivesubstancesinoncology32 Cancerpatientaccessanduseofscientificadvances47 Spendingononcologymedicines59 Notesonsources66 Appendix67 References69 Abouttheauthors70 AbouttheInstitute71 Overview Newtherapiesforadvancedcancersandsomeofthemostadvancednovelscienceareunderdevelopmentorhavebeenrecentlylaunched.Thesetherapiesrepresentthelargestareaofcollectiveresearchandthelargestoverallareaofdrugspendingacrossallofhealthcare. Newtreatmentsinoncologyareincreasinglybecominghighlytargeted,providingprecisionmedicineforsubpopulationsofpatientsthatmaynothavebenefittedfromtraditionalstandardofcare.Despitesignificantadvancesintreatment,theglobaloncologycommunityandpatientscontinuetostrugglewithdisparitiesinaccessandcare.Theoutlookforthenextfiveyearsincludesthecontinuationofsomeofthesetrendsandshiftsinothers. TRENDSINCANCERINCIDENCEANDMORTALITY Cancerincidenceisexpectedtorisesignificantlythrough2050,particularlyinlower-incomecountries,withanincreaseofover12millionnewcasesannually.Thegrowingdiseaseburdenunderscorestheurgentneedfornewtreatmentstoenhancesurvivalandqualityoflife.Disparitiesin5-yearcancersurvivalacrosscountries,evenwithsimilarGDPlevels,indicatethatdifferenthealthcarestrategiesmayleadtobetteroutcomesforcertaincancers.Thevariabilityincancerseverityandprogression,alongwithhealthcaresystemdifferences,suggeststhattailoredstrategiescouldbemore effectiveforcertaincancers,includingearlydetectionorenhancingsurvivorshipandqualityoflife.Benchmarkingandsharingbestpracticesacrosscountriescouldhelpaddressvariationsandoptimizecareforcancerswithsignificantdifferencesinsurvivorship. ONCOLOGYRESEARCHANDDEVELOPMENTACTIVITIES In2023,oncologytrialstartsdecreasedbutwerestill11%higherthanin2019,withafocusonsolidtumors.Emergingbiopharmacompaniesaccountedfor60%ofthesetrials,asignificantincreasefrom33%adecadeearlier.China-basedcompaniesareplayinganincreasingroleinclinicalresearch,representing35%oftrialstartsin2023,upfrom5%adecadeago.Novelmodalities,includingcellandgenetherapies,antibody-drugconjugates(ADCs),andmultispecificantibodies,show significantpromiseforcancertreatmentandrepresentagrowingshareofclinicalresearch.Trialsinvolving PD-1/PD-L1inhibitorsgrew29%overthelastfiveyears,withthesetherapiesbeinginvestigatedacrossmoretumorsandearlierlinesoftherapy.Morethan250trialstestingCART-celltherapiesinoncologystartedin2023,withmostbeinginvestigatedforhematologicalcancersbutincreasinglylookedatacr