光伏玻璃行业研究：供需趋于动态平衡，行业盈利有望触底回升

20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 000300.SH 003010.CJ 投资要点     请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 一、光伏玻璃是组件的重要封装材料，双玻组件渗透率持续提升4 1.光伏玻璃是组件的重要封装材料4 2.双玻组件渗透率持续提升，光伏玻璃向薄型化发展6 二、光伏装机持续高增，政策调控下全年供需有望趋于动态平衡7 1.需求端：碳中和&光伏平价&消纳率缓解，光伏装机持续高增7 2.供给端：多因素制约光伏玻璃新增产能投放9 3.供需测算：全年供需趋于动态平衡11 三、生产成本下降叠加阶段性供需缺口，行业盈利有望触底回升12 1.成本端：原料燃料价格回落，生产成本下降12 2.价格端：阶段性供需缺口有望带来价格上涨13 3.盈利端：一线企业优势明显，行业盈利有望触底回升14 四、投资建议15 1.福莱特15 2.旗滨集团15 五、风险提示17 ........................................................................................................................................4 ........................................................................................................................................5 ........................................................................................................................................5 ...................................................................................................................................................5 ...................................................................................................................................................5 ......................................................................................................6 ..............................................................................6 ........................................................................................................................................7 .............................................................................................................................8 ...................................................................................................8 ...........................................................................................................................9 ...........................................................................................................................................10 ...........................................................................................................................................12 ................................................................................................................................12 ...........................................................................................................................................13 .........................................................................................................................13 .....................................................................................................14 ...............................................................................................................14 ......................................................................................................14 ..................................................................................................................15 ..............................................................................................................15 ................................................................................................16 ............................................................................................16 ............................................................................................................10 .........................................................................................................................................11         0.40.38 0.35 0.30.289 0.25 0.217 0.2 0.168 0.154 0.15 0.117 0.103 0.1 0.083 0.07 0.06 0.0560.048 0.05 0 201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021  8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 弃风率 弃光率   5% 9% 48% 38% 原材料燃料动力制造费用其他  5% 9% 48% 38% 原材料燃料动力制造费用其他 28% 47% 25% 纯碱石英砂其他 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2020/6/1 2021/6/1 2022/6/1 2023/6/1 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2020/7/1 2021/7/1 2022/7/1 2023/7/1 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 3.2mm镀膜 2.0mm镀膜 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 2023-12 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 福莱特 安彩高科 亚玛顿 凯盛新能 250 200 150 100 50 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2023 营业收入 YOY 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2019 20202021 2022 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2023 净利润 YOY 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 营业收入 YOY 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% 净利润 YOY