南华甲醇产业链数据周报：偏空对待

20231224 F3046357Z0015428F03100606 WIND 300000 280000 260000 240000 220000 200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MTO + + + 270000 220000 170000 120000 70000 20000 3 2020 2021 2022 2023 200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 -50000 -100000 -150000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 - 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 600000 550000 500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 550000 500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MTO 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 65 55 45 35 25 15 5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2021 2022 2023 4 200 150 100 50 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2021 2022 2023 5 2700 2500 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 2023-07-24 2023-08-24 2023-09-24 2023-10-24 2023-11-24 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2020 2021 2022 2023 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2020 2021 2022 2023 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2020 2021 2022 2023 WIND 6 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20192020202120222023 7,000 4,500 6,000 4,000 5,000 3,500 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,000 2,000 0 2019-01-18 1,500 2020-01-18 2021-01-18 2022-01-18 2023-01-18 + + 4,500 3,000 4,000 2,500 3,500 2,000 3,000 1,500 2,500 1,000 2,000 500 1,500 2019-08-01 0 2020-08-01 2021-08-01 2022-08-01 2023-08-01 650 550450 350 250 150 50 -507/1 -150 -250 -350 7/31 8/30 9/2910/2911/2812/28 01 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 -509/1 -150 10/1 10/31 11/30 12/30 1-5 1000 800 600 400 200 0 11/1 12/1 12/31 1/30 2/29 3/30 4/29 -200 05 400 300 200 100 0 1/1 1/31 3/1 3/31 4/30 -100 -200 5-9 550350 150 -503/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 -250 09 0 5/1 5/31 6/30 7/30 8/29 -40 -80 -120 -160 -200 9-1 WIND 3200 700 3000 500 2800 300 2600 2400 100 2200 -100 2000 -300 1800 -500 利润（右轴） 川渝市场价 西南天然气制成本 3600 3400 1000 800 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 利润（右轴） 北线市场价 内蒙古煤制成本 4800 900 4300 700 3800 500 300 3300 100 2800 -100 2300 -300 1800 -500 利润（右轴） 山东中部市场价 山东煤制成本 3200 1000 3000 800 2800 600 2600 400 2400 2200 200 2000 0 1800 -200 2022-03-18 2022-04-18 2022-05-18 2022-06-18 2022-07-18 2022-08-18 2022-09-18 2022-10-18 2022-11-18 2022-12-18 2023-01-18 2023-02-18 2023-03-18 2023-04-18 2023-05-18 2023-06-18 2023-07-18 2023-08-18 2023-09-18 2023-10-18 2023-11-18 2023-12-18 125 115 105 95 85 75 65 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 20192020202120222023 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 20192020202120222023 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 10 135 125 115 105 95 85 75 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 11 270000 260000 250000 240000 230000 220000 210000 200000 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 2020 2021 2022 2023 370 350 330 310 290 270 250 230 210 190 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 CFR FOB / CFR 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 2020 2021 2022 2023 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2020 2021 2022 2023 WIND 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 49 44 39 34 29 24 19 14 9 4 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MTO MTO MTO 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023MTO 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2020 2021 2022 2023 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 沿海MTO日耗加总内地MTO日耗加总 • 1 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MTBE • 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 6 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 105% 95% 85% 75% 65% 55% 45% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 2020 2021 2022 2023 DMF 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2022-01-14 2022-02-14 2022-03-14 2022-04-14 2022-05-14 2022-06-14 2022-07-14 2022-08-14 2022-09-14 2022-10-14 2022-11-14 2022-12-14 2023-01-14 2023-02-14 2023-03-14 2023-04-14 2023-05-