南华航运(集运)周报：期价大涨，即期运价超预期继续上行

20231210 — Z0003508 F03100647 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1 1 SCFIS CCFISCFI NCFISEAFINCFI 890 2 2 11 0.45% 1.1% 6.4% √ ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ FedEx √ ⭐⭐⭐⭐ √ ⭐⭐⭐⭐ OOCL — —⭐⭐⭐⭐ MSC CEO — —⭐⭐⭐⭐ 3 2 9.22% 894.0 5.16% 878.5 70407 EC2404 EC2404 EC2406 EC2408 EC2410 EC2412 818.5 900.1 992.8 854.2 943.3 894.0 992.8 1057.0 950.1 1019.5 9.22% 10.30% 6.47% 11.23% 8.08% 835.4 901.9 993.5 860.0 938.4 878.5 991.1 1060.9 950.8 1009.4 5.16% 9.89% 6.78% 10.56% 7.57% 70407 34394 3013 3296 608 - 4 2 5.77% CCFI 124 -7.50% SCFIS 126 SCFI 0.22% -4.43% NCFI CICFINCFI 8.16% 128 SEAFI 0.20% NCFI 1.66% 5.51% 1.15% 20.05% NCFI 0.11% SEAFI - 0.39% 5 2023-08-18 2023-08-25 2023-09-01 2023-09-08 2023-09-15 2023-09-22 2023-09-29 2023-10-06 2023-10-13 2023-10-20 2023-10-27 2023-11-03 2023-11-10 2023-11-17 2023-11-24 2023-12-01 2023-12-08 2023-08-18 2023-08-25 2023-09-01 2023-09-08 2023-09-15 2023-09-22 2023-09-29 2023-10-06 2023-10-13 2023-10-20 2023-10-27 2023-11-03 2023-11-10 2023-11-17 2023-11-24 2023-12-01 2023-12-08 3 1,150.0 1,110.0 1,100.0 1,050.0 1,060.0 1,010.0 1,000.0 960.0 950.0 900.0 910.0 860.0 850.0 810.0 800.0 760.0 750.0 700.0 710.0 EC2404 EC2406 EC2408 EC2410 EC2412 EC2404 EC2406 EC2408 EC2410 EC2412 Wind 6 2023-08-18 2023-08-25 2023-09-01 2023-09-08 2023-09-15 2023-09-22 2023-09-29 2023-10-06 2023-10-13 2023-10-20 2023-10-27 2023-11-03 2023-11-10 2023-11-17 2023-11-24 2023-12-01 2023-12-08 2023-08-18 2023-08-25 2023-09-01 2023-09-08 2023-09-15 2023-09-22 2023-09-29 2023-10-06 2023-10-13 2023-10-20 2023-10-27 2023-11-03 2023-11-10 2023-11-17 2023-11-24 2023-12-01 2023-12-08 3 130,000.0 610,000.0 110,000.0 510,000.0 90,000.0 410,000.0 70,000.0 310,000.0 50,000.0 210,000.0 30,000.0 110,000.0 10,000.0 10,000.0 EC2404 EC2404 Wind 7 2021-12-13 2022-02-13 2022-04-13 2022-06-13 2022-08-13 2022-10-13 2022-12-13 2023-02-13 2023-04-13 2023-06-13 2023-08-13 2023-10-13 2021-12-27 2022-02-10 2022-03-27 2022-05-11 2022-06-25 2022-08-09 2022-09-23 2022-11-07 2022-12-22 2023-02-05 2023-03-22 2023-05-06 2023-06-20 2023-08-04 2023-09-18 2023-11-02 4 40.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% 12,000.0 6,000.0 30.0% 10,000.0 5,000.0 20.0% 8,000.0 4,000.0 10.0% 6,000.0 3,000.0 0.0% 4,000.0 2,000.0 -10.0% 2,000.0 1,000.0 -20.0% -30.0% 0.0 0.0 SCFIS SCFIS SCFIS SCFIS : iFinD 8 2016-01-08 2016-06-08 2016-11-08 2017-04-08 2017-09-08 2018-02-08 2018-07-08 2018-12-08 2019-05-08 2019-10-08 2020-03-08 2020-08-08 2021-01-08 2021-06-08 2021-11-08 2022-04-08 2022-09-08 2023-02-08 2023-07-08 2023-12-08 2022-12-09 2022-12-30 2023-01-20 2023-02-10 2023-03-03 2023-03-24 2023-04-14 2023-05-05 2023-05-26 2023-06-16 2023-07-07 2023-07-28 2023-08-18 2023-09-08 2023-09-29 2023-10-20 2023-11-10 2023-12-01 4 9,000.0 1,800.0 8,000.0 1,600.0 7,000.0 1,400.0 6,000.0 1,200.0 5,000.0 4,000.0 1,000.0 3,000.0 800.0 2,000.0 600.0 1,000.0 400.0 0.0 SCFI CCFI SEAFI NCFI SCFI CCFI SEAFI NCFI iFinD 9 20.0% 4.00% 15.0% 3.00% 10.0% 2.00% 1.00% 5.0% 0.00% 0.0% -1.00% -5.0% -2.00% -10.0% -3.00% SCFI SEAFI NCFI CCFI : 2023-11-10 2023-11-13 2023-11-16 2023-11-19 2023-11-22 2023-11-25 2023-11-28 2023-12-01 2023-12-04 2023-12-07 4 iFinD 10 2012-03-30 2012-10-30 2013-05-30 2013-12-30 2014-07-30 2015-02-28 2015-09-30 2016-04-30 2016-11-30 2017-06-30 2018-01-31 2018-08-31 2019-03-31 2019-10-31 2020-05-31 2020-12-31 2021-07-31 2022-02-28 2022-09-30 2023-04-30 2023-11-30 2022-12-09 2022-12-30 2023-01-20 2023-02-10 2023-03-03 2023-03-24 2023-04-14 2023-05-05 2023-05-26 2023-06-16 2023-07-07 2023-07-28 2023-08-18 2023-09-08 2023-09-29 2023-10-20 2023-11-10 2023-12-01 4 8 11 12 7,000.0 850.0 NCFI NCFI 6,000.0 750.0 5,000.0 650.0 4,000.0 550.0 3,000.0 450.0 2,000.0 350.0 1,000.0 0.0 250.0 iFinD 11 2022-12-09 2022-12-23 2023-01-06 2023-01-20 2023-02-03 2023-02-17 2023-03-03 2023-03-17 2023-03-31 2023-04-14 2023-04-28 2023-05-12 2023-05-26 2023-06-09 2023-06-23 2023-07-07 2023-07-21 2023-08-04 2023-08-18 2023-09-01 2023-09-15 2023-09-29 2023-10-13 2023-10-27 2023-11-10 2023-11-24 2023-12-08 4 8 11 12 NCFI 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% iFinD 12 2012-10-19 2013-05-19 2013-12-19 2014-07-19 2015-02-19 2015-09-19 2016-04-19 2016-11-19 2017-06-19 2018-01-19 2018-08-19 2019-03-19 2019-10-19 2020-05-19 2020-12-19 2021-07-19 2022-02-19 2022-09-19 2023-04-19 2023-11-19 2022-12-09 2022-12-30 2023-01-20 2023-02-10 2023-03-03 2023-03-24 2023-04-14 2023-05-05 2023-05-26 2023-06-16 2023-07-07 2023-07-28 2023-08-18 2023-09-08 2023-09-29 2023-10-20 2023-11-10 2023-12-01 4 1,500.0 1,400.0 1,300.0 1,200.0 1,100.0 1,000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 6,000.0 5,000.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 0.0 NCFI NCFI NCFI NCFI iFinD 13 2022-12-09 2022-12-23 2023-01-06 2023-01-20 2023-02-03 2023-02-17 2023-03-03 2023-03-17 2023-03-31 2023-04-14 2023-04-28 2023-05-12 2023-05-26 2023-06-09 2023-06-23 2023-07-07 2023-07-21 2023-08-04 2023-08-18 2023-09-01 2023-09-15 2023-09-29 2023-10-13 2023-10-27 2023-11-10 2023-11-24 20