南华热卷策略周报：产量下降，库存小幅去化

1020 2023 Z0012648 F03095899F03118257 10月19日10月18日 10月13日 10月19日10月18日 10月13日 10 3,6913,677 0.14% 3,790 01 -2513 -38 3 10 0.070.07 0.01 3,790 05 642 -36 40 10 0.120.08 0.04 1.45 10 4983 -34 -60 4.75mm 3,7403,760 -20 3,730 01-05 3129 2 37 4.75mm 3,6603,660 0 3,670 05-10 4341 2 -100 4.75mm 3,7603,760 0 3,750 10-01 -74-70 -4 63 4.75mm 3,7803,760 20 3,760 1020 -10 10 6mm - 2,5502,550 0 2,570 01 121132 -11 107 PB- 937929 8 925 05 7885 -7 78 - 2,3402,340 0 2,340 10 6875 -7 270 -384-398 14 -284 - -200 -20 -20 -414-380 -34 -406 - 400 40 30 FOB 528528 0 525 - 200 20 10 FOB 560560 0 580 FOB - 9292 0 95 FOB 620620 0 620 FOB - 3232 0 55 FOB 640640 0 645 FOB (- ) 5252 0 55 FOB 580580 0 580 FOB (- 112112 0 120 CFR 525525 0 520 CFR 627630 -3 635 CFR 590590 0 590 CFR 605605 0 605 WIND 2023/10/20 2023/10/13 309.37 316.93 311.85 -7.56 -2.48 256.26 252.79 305.02 3.47 83.51 83.46 83.44 0.05 104.32 108.35 135.13 -4.03 148.04 156.68 143.95 2023/10/20 2023/10/13 391.29 400.31 91.64 94.70 299.65 305 1.23 2023 | 01 / 05 / 10 / 4500 4300 4100 3900 3700 3500 4900 4700 4500 4300 4100 3900 3700 3500 4600 4400 4200 4000 3800 3600 3400 3200 3300 2022/10/202022/12/202023/2/202023/4/202023/6/202023/8/20 3300 202 3000 2022/10/202022/12/202023/2/202023/4/202023/6/202023/8/20 / / / 5200 5000 4800 4600 4400 4200 4000 3800 3600 3400 2022/10/182023/1/182023/4/182023/7/182023/10/18 5500 5300 5100 4900 4700 4500 4300 4100 3900 3700 3500 2022/10/182023/1/182023/4/182023/7/182023/10/18 5100 4900 4700 4500 4300 4100 3900 3700 3500 2022/10/182023/1/182023/4/182023/7/182023/10/18 & / 01 / 10 / 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 2022/10/182023/2/182023/6/182023/10/18 600 2001 2101 2201 2301 2401 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 1 1 24 1 1 1 1 681012 650 2010 2110 2210 2310 2410 550 450 350 250 150 50 -50 -150 -250 1 1 1 1 1 1 1113579 - / - / - / 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 1 1 1 1 1357 1 1 911 300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200 100 0 -100 1 -200 1 1 1 1357 1 1 911 250 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 1 1 1 1 1357 1 1 911 01 / 05 / 10 / 2001 2101 2201 2301 2401 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 131415161718191101111121 2 900 2005 2105 2205 700 500 300 100 -100 -300 6 23052405 900 2010 2110 2210 2310 700 500 300 100 -100 -300 1 1 1 1 1 1 1113579 01-05 / 05-10 / 10-01 / 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 2001-2005 2301-2305 2101-2105 2401-2405 2201-2205 0 61 71 81 91 1 1 1 101112 250 2005-2010 2305-2310 2105-2110 2405-2410 2205-2210 200 150 100 50 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 11121234 250 1910-2001 2210-2301 2010-2101 2310-2401 2110-2201 200 150 100 50 1 0 1 23 1 1 1 1 1 1 456789 / / / 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 2022/7/82022/10/82023/1/82023/4/82023/7/82023/10/8 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 2005 2105 2205 2305 2405 2010 2110 2210 2310 2410 20 700 500 300 100 -100 -300 -500 2022/7/82022/10/82023/1/82023/4/82023/7/82023/10/8 01 / 05 / 10 / 2001 2101 2201 2301 2401 1900 1900 1900 1400 1400 1400 900 900 900 400 400 400 -100 131415161718191101111121 2 -100 171819110111112111213141 6 -100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1113579 247 % 247 % 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 355 345 335 325 315 305 295 285 275 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 20192020202120222023 2019 2020 2021 2022 95 95 90 8590 8085 7580 70 75 65 6070 W-W 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 210 205 200 195 190 185 180 175 170 165 20192020202120222023 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 20192020202120222023 73 68 63 58 53 48 W 14020192020202120222023 130 120 110 100 90 80 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 8520192020202120222023 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 W- 3020192020202120222023 28 26 3020192020202120222023 25 2420 22 20 18 16 14 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 15 10 5 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 630 580 530 480 430 380 330 280 230 20192020202120222023 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 450 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 400 350 300 250 200 150 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 110 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 350 330 310 290 270 250 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 450 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 350 250 150 50 -50 W 250 2019 2020 2021 2022 200 150 100 50 0 -50 W 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 9