南华热卷策略周报：产业链内产量动态平衡

426 2024 Z0020173F03118257 05 3,856 3,863 0.10% 3,863 05 3.45 3.20 0.25 3.49 01 56 50 6 54 05 4 -3 7 -3 05 6.84 8.61 -1.77 12.68 10 33 25 8 25 4.75mm 3,860 3,860 0 3,860 01-05 -52 -53 1 -57 4.75mm 3,760 3,750 10 3,760 05-10 29 28 1 28 4.75mm 3,790 3,790 0 3,800 10-01 23 25 -2 29 4.75mm 3,830 3,830 0 3,840 210 220 -10 220 6mm - 2,550 2,550 0 2,500 01 137 138 -1 145 PB- 877 887 -10 881 05 286 280 6 269 - 1,940 1,940 0 1,840 10 158 154 4 160 -7 -5 -2 28 - 70 70 0 60 35 17 18 92 - -30 -30 0 -20 FOB 530 530 0 525 - 40 40 0 40 FOB 540 540 0 540 FOB - 30 30 0 35 FOB 560 560 0 560 FOB - 10 10 0 15 FOB 615 615 0 600 FOB (-) 30 30 0 35 FOB 560 560 0 560 FOB (- 85 85 0 75 CFR 540 540 0 535 CFR 640 625 15 625 CFR 575 575 0 575 CFR 570 570 0 550 2024/4/26 2024/4/19 315.60 323.15 -7.55 222.05 217.87 4.18 85.37 85.77 -0.40 87.41 80.89 6.52 153.55 152.78 0.77 2024/4/26 2024/4/19 409.99 417.86 -7.87 85.05 87.97 -2.92 443.40 447.81 -4.41 1.27 1.28 -0.02 2024/4/26 2024/4/19 323.47 325.46 -1.99 288.00 281.58 6.42 86.59 88.66 -2.07 104.40 107.44 -3.04 155.42 156.46 -1.04 | 01 / 05 / 10 / 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300 2023/4/252023/6/252023/8/252023/10/252023/12/252024/2/252024/4/ 4900 4700 4500 4300 4100 3900 3700 3500 3300 2023/4/252023/6/252023/8/252023/10/252023/12/252024/2/252024/4/ 4200 4000 3800 3600 3400 3200 3000 2023/4/252023/6/252023/8/252023/10/252023/12/252024/2/252024/4/ / / / 5200 5000 4800 4600 4400 4200 4000 3800 3600 3400 2023/4/232023/6/232023/8/232023/10/232023/12/232024/2/232024/4/23 5500 5300 5100 4900 4700 4500 4300 4100 3900 3700 3500 2023/4/232023/6/232023/8/232023/10/232023/12/232024/2/232024/4/23 5100 4900 4700 4500 4300 4100 3900 3700 3500 2023/4/232023/6/232023/8/232023/10/232023/12/232024/2/232024/4/23 & / 01 / 10 / 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 2023/4/232023/8/232023/12/232024/4/23 600 2101 2201 2301 2401 2501 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 1 1 24 1 1 1 1 681012 650 2010 2110 2210 2310 2410 550 450 350 250 150 50 -50 -150 -250 1 1 1 1 1 1 1113579 - / - / - / 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 1 -250 1 1 1 1357 1 1 911 300 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200 100 0 -100 1 -200 1 1 1 1357 1 1 911 250 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 1 -200 1 1 1 1357 1 1 911 01 / 05 / 10 / 2101 2201 2301 2401 2501 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 131415161718191101111121 -200 2 900 2005 2105 2205 700 500 300 100 -100 -300 6 23052405 900 2010 2110 2210 2310 2410 700 500 300 100 -100 -300 1 1 1 1 1 1 1113579 01-05 / 05-10 / 10-01 / 2001-2005 2301-2305 2101-2105 2401-2405 2201-2205 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1 -50 1 67 1 1 1 8910 1 1 1112 250 2005-2010 2305-2310 2105-2110 2405-2410 2205-2210 200 150 100 50 0 -50 1 1 1 1 1 1 11121234 250 2010-2101 2310-2401 2110-2201 2410-2501 2210-2301 200 150 100 50 1 0 1 23 1 1 1 1 1 1 456789 / / / 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 2023/1/122023/4/122023/7/122023/10/122024/1/122024/4/12 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 2005 2105 2205 2305 2405 2010 2110 2210 2310 2410 2022/12/272023/3/272023/6/272023/9/272023/12/272024/3/27 700 500 300 100 -100 -300 -500 2023/1/112023/4/112023/7/112023/10/112024/1/112024/4/11 01 / 05 / 10 / 2101 2201 2301 2401 2501 2200 1700 1900 1900 1200 1400 1400 700 200 -300 900 400 900 400 -800 131415161718191101111121 2 -100 171819110111112111213141 6 -100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1113579 350 340 330 320 310 300 290 280 270 260 250 1 1 14 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 1 1 71011 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 1 1 14 1 1 710 2020202120222023202420202021202220232024 75 70 65 60 55 1 50 1 1 1 14710 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 1 1 14 1 1 710 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 1 114 1 1 710 20202021202220232024 20202021202220232024 20202021202220232024 247 % 247 % 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 1 1 14 1 1 710 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 1 114 1 1 710 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 1 1 14 1 1 710 20202021202220232024 20202021202220232024 20202021202220232024 247 % % % 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 1 14 1 1 710 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 114 1 1 710 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 1 14 1 1 710 20202021202220232024 20202021202220232024 20202021202220232024 55 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 1 1 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 1 1 14 1 1 710 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 1 1 14 1 1 710 20202021202220232024202220232024 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 1 0.5 1 14 1 1 710 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 1 14 1 1 710 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 114 1 1 710 20202021202220232024 20202021202220232024 202220232024 % 360 340 320 300 280 260 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 200%