甲骨文公司2026年第四季度预览：平衡增长与数据中心建设及融资需求；目标价上调至240美元

4Q26 Preview: balancing growth and DCbuildout with financing needs; PO to $240 Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 240.00 USD | Price: 211.82 USD 09 June 2026 Converting backlog into revenue; core strength to remainOraclereports 4Q26 results after the close on Wednesday, June 10th. The stock is up +30% since 3Q26 earnings and +45% since our reinstatement of coverage in March,primarily related to broader software strength and reduced funding overhang following~$50bn of recent debt and equity raises. Into the print, we expect the key areas of focusto center on: (1) data center buildout and pace of revenue recognition, (2) capex andfinancing needs tied to DC buildout and (3) sustained strength in the core business. Wereiterate our Buy rating and raise our PO to $240 from $200, based on 26.5x our CY27EP/E estimates vs 22x prior, as underlying demand trends remain robust across bothcloud infrastructure and database workloads. Equity Tal LianiResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 5107tal.liani@bofa.com Cloud growth inflection and margins in focus Kevin NiederpruemResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855-1540kevin.niederpruem@bofa.com Weremain focused on the trajectory of cloud revenue growth and expect CloudPaaS/IaaS to grow 94% YoY in 4Q26, accelerating from 84% in 3Q26, as incrementaldata center capacity comes online, allowing for RPO recognition. In addition, we seeCloud margins and new compute deal announcements as increasingly important areas offocus as the Cloud segment becomes a larger portion of revenue, currently representing52% compared to 44% a year ago. We model Cloud & Software gross margin to be 70%,roughly consistent with last quarter, with total gross margin at 67%. Lastly, we note thatOpenAI represents >50% of RPO, and are closely monitoring its ability to meet itsrevenue targets and access sufficient capital to support its commitments. Eden VacnichResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 1971eden.vacnich@bofa.com Investment pace and financing flexibilityWe expect capital expenditures to remain elevated, modeling $11bn in 4Q27 and $68.3bn in FY27, up 21% and 36%, respectively, as Oracle continues to investaggressively in data center capacity to meet its backlog commitments and overalldemand for compute. We are focused on any commentary around the company’s $20bnATM equity program, announced earlier this year, and believe the company will need toraise an additional ~$35bn over the next few years given the cost intensity nature of thebuildout.Discussion continues on Page 3. Glossary: •DC = Data Center•PaaS = Platform-as-a-Service•IaaS = Infrastructure-as-a-Service•RPO = Remaining PerformanceObligations•ATM = At-the-market•FCF = Free Cash Flow BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As aresult, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 6 to 8. Analyst Certification on page 4. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 4.12982290 Timestamp: 09 June 2026 01:00AM EDT iQprofileSMOracle Corporation Company SectorSoftware Company Description Oracle is a globalleader in enterprise software, cloudservices, and database technologies, and in recent years thecompany has increasingly centered its strategy aroundOracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) as its primary growthengine. Oracle has invested heavily in expanding its globaldata‑center footprint to meet rising demand forAI‑optimized and multicloud infrastructure, backing thisshift with multibillion‑dollar capital expenditures and rapidbuild‑outs of new facilities. Investment Rationale We rate Oracle Buy.Our bullish view on Oracle is based onaccelerating demand in the company's OCI segment. Whilevisibility remains somewhat limited on profitability/capexROI, the outlook for OCI revenue suggests a step function indemand. It is clear that Oracle is capturing share in the largeand rapidly growing market for AI infrastructure, in ourview. Stock Data Average Daily Volume23,510,200 Core growth supports revenue, but capex weights on FCF We continue to expect solid performance from Oracle’s core database business, whichgrew 35% YoY and Multicloud database revenue up 531% YoY in 3Q26, as it provides astable foundation for free cash flow generation, supported in part by strategicpartnerships announced during the quarter with Amazon and Google. However, whilethese trends reinforce underlying demand and ecosystem expansion, we do not expectcore strength alone to offset the near-term impact of elevated capex on free cash flow.We model free cash flow of -$2.6bn and margin of -13.4% in 4Q26. Price objective basis & risk Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Our PO of $240 is based on 26.5x our CY27E P/E, a premium to large cap software andcloud data center group trading at 19x which we believe is warranted due to acceleratinggrowth/mounting