英伟达公司：在最具吸引力的可见增长机会中拥有坚实基础，目标价上调至235美元

Solidsetupinmostattractivevisible/growthoppty.,POto$235 ReiterateRating:BUY|PO:235.00USD|Price:181.60USD 27August2025 IgnoreChinanoise,focuson~$10inCY27EPSpowerWereiterateBuyontopsectorpickNVDAaswebelieveitremainssolidlypositionedto maintainits80%+shareinthefastestgrowingandmostattractiveglobalAIinfrastructurebuildout,alongwithindustryleading45%+FCFmarginsandvaluationat~1xearningsgrowthrate(vs.S&P500index/Mag-7peersat2x+PEG).Chinaremainsanuncertainty,butweexpectnon-ChinaRestofWorld(~$200bninFY26Esales)tomorethanoffsetgeopoliticalheadwindsinshippingtoChina,whichwecompletelyexcludefromourmodel.Overall,weraiseFY26/27/28E(roughlyCY25/26/27E)pf-EPSby6%/7%/11%to$4.45/$6.26/8.03.Ourforecastsarebasedona30-35%CY25-27Eannualsalesgrowth,whileNVDA’s“50%industrygrowth”suggestsanearningspowerofover$10/shbyCY27E(andperhaps$15longer-term),inourestimation.Near-termthestockcouldremainvolatileduetoits35%+moveintra-quarterandhighexpectations,butweexpecttheuptrendtoresumeasinvestorsrevisitthesolidfundamentaloutlook.WeraiseourPOto$235from$220onunchanged37xCY26EPE,inlinewithEPSgrowthandthemiddleofNVDA’s25x-56xhistoricalrange. Equity VivekAryaResearchAnalystBofASvivek.arya@bofa.com Likes:Blackwellramp,GM,networking,Rubin1)BlackwellUltraisnowrampingatfullproduction,or1,000racksperweek(~$39bnin salesat~$3mnASPover13weeks),whichisexpectedtofurtheracceleratethroughoutFQ3.Assystem-levelracksmatureandgainscale,GMcouldmorequicklyreturntowardpriormid-70%range,whilerelatednetworking(NVLink–switch-up;Spectrum-X–switch-out)couldalsocontinuetobenefit.NoteSpectrum-Xhasnowreached$10bn/yrrun-rate,upfrom$8bn/yrinAprQ.Lastly,next-genRubinisontrackforCY26(FY27)launch,maintainingthe0.5-1.0yearhardwareadvantageoverAMDGPUs. DuksanJangResearchAnalystBofASduksan.jang@bofa.com MichaelManiResearchAnalystBofASmichael.mani@bofa.com LiamPharrResearchAnalystBofASliam.pharr@bofa.com Risks:mutednear-termEPSrevisions,Chinauncertainty GiventheChinauncertaintyandreset,EPSrevisionscouldremainmoremutedinthenear-termthanoverthelastfewquarters.However,notethe$54bnOctQsalesguideshouldbecomparedagainst$51bn-$52bnfrompre-H20licenseapproval,ratherthanthecurrent$53.5bnconsensus.AlsonotethatonceH20beginsshipping,itcouldreusesomeofthepriorwritten-offinventoryandcouldboostGMbyupto200-300bps. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of thisreport. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page17to19.Analyst Certification on page15.PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page15.12870644 Timestamp:27August202510:28PMEDT iQprofileSMNVIDIA Corporation Company SectorSemiconductors Company Description Nvidia designs and sell graphics and video processing chipsfor desktop and notebook gaming PCs, workstations, gameconsoles, and accelerated computing servers andsupercomputers. Investment Rationale Our positive view on Nvidia is based on itsunderappreciated transformation from a traditional PCgraphics chipvendor, into a supplier into high-end gaming,enterprise graphics, cloud, accelerated computing andautomotive markets. The company has executedconsistently and has a solid balance sheet withdemonstrated commitment to capital returns. Stock Data FQ2 2026 Earnings Call SummaryPrepared remarks •Blackwell:Blackwell reached record levels in Q2, growing +17% QoQ with production of GB300 beginning in Q2. oBlackwell Ultra platform saw strong quarter, generating tens of $bnsin revenue.oFactory builds in late July and early August were successfully convertedto support the GB300 ramp with full production underway today,producing ~1,000 racks per week and expected to accelerate furtherthrough 3Q as add’l capacity comes online. •AI TAM:Nvidia sees $3-4tn in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decadeoCloud capex on track to invest $600bn in data center infrastructureand compute this calendar year alone. •Rubin:Chips are in-fab and remain on schedule for volume production nextyear •China H20:Nvidia has not shipped any H20s to China despite a select numberof China-based customers receiving licenses. US gov’t are expecting to receive15% of revenue generated from licensed H20 sales. oNvidia has not included H20 in Q3 outlook however, if geopoliticalissues subside, Nvidia should ship $2bn-$5bn in H20 revenue withadditional billing capacity.oNvidia sold $650m of H20 in Q2 to an unrestricted customer outsideof China •RTX PRO:Currently in full production, these air-cooled PCIe-based systems fortraditional enterprise IT applications are being adopted by nearly 90 companiesand are expected to become a multi-billion dollar product line. •Sovereign AI:Nvidia is on track to achieve over $20bn in sovereign AI revenuethis year, more than double than that of last year. •Networking:2Q saw record revenue of $7.3bn (+46% QoQ, +98% YoY) wi