生物燃料的未来：政策教训和研究方向（英）

Nafisa Lohawala, Kristen McCormack, Emma DeAngeli, Ambarish Kota, EthanZiegler, Alan Krupnick, Beia Spiller, David N. Wear, and Matthew Wibbenmeyer About the Authors Nafisa Lohawalais a fellow at Resources for the Future (RFF). She earned a PhDin economics at the University of Michigan after receiving a BS-MS dual degree ineconomics with a minor in computer science and engineering (algorithms) from theIndian Institute of Technology, Kanpur. Lohawala’s research lies at the intersection of Kristen McCormackis is a fellow at RFF. McCormack received a PhD in Public Policyfrom Harvard University in 2023. Following the completion of her degree, she workedas a financial economist at the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Tax Analysis.Her research focuses on the distributional effects of climate change and the design of Emma DeAngeliis a research associate at RFF. DeAngeli earned her Master ofEnvironmental Management degree with a specialization in Environmental Economicsand Policy from Duke University in 2022, focusing on climate change policy. Her Ambarish Kotais a Pathways to Policy (Brook Bryers Institute for SustainableSystems) fellow at RFF. Prior to RFF, he was a fellow at the George Institute forTechnology. Kota’s research focuses on life-cycle assessments, energy systemsanalysis and techno-economic modeling for emerging technologies in the field of Ethan Ziegleris a research analyst at RFF, where he works on E4ST. He previouslystudied economics and environmental science at American University, where heconducted optimization modeling research on the effects of food waste. Alan Krupnickis a senior fellow and director of RFF’s Industry and Fuels Program.Krupnick is an expert on the oil and gas sector, reducing greenhouse gas emissionsfrom this and the industrial sectors, and cost-benefit analysis. His portfolio alsoincludes guiding the value of information agenda covered by our VALUABLES initiativewith NASA, the valuation of reducing asthma risks, estimating the value of statistical Beia Spilleris a fellow and the director for RFF’s Transportation Program. Priorto joining RFF, she was Lead Senior Economist at Environmental Defense Fund(EDF), where she worked for almost a decade. She was also a Board member for theAssociation of Environmental and Resource Economists through 2024. Spiller is an David N. Wearis a senior fellow and the director of RFF’s Land Use, Forestry, andAgriculture Program. Prior to his arrival, he spent more than 30 years with US ForestService Research and Development, most recently as a senior research scientist andleader of national and regional resource assessments. As a federal scientist, he led or contributed to several national and regional natural resource assessments includingthe Southern Forest Resource Assessment, Southern Forest Futures Project, and Matthew Wibbenmeyeris a fellow a RFF. Wibbenmeyer’s research studies climateimpacts and mitigation within the US land sector, with a special emphasis onwildfire impacts and management. Alongside his work on wildfire, Wibbenmeyer isinvestigating the role of the US land sector in mitigating climate change, and how Acknowledgments We thank Aaron Smith, Brent Sohngen, Corinne Scown, Chris Malins, James Stock, JeffLuse, Jeremy Martin, Julie Witcover, Marc Hafstead, Robert Bonnie, and Scott Irwinfor sharing their expertise and perspectives, which informed the development of thisreport. Any errors are our own. About RFF Resources for the Future (RFF) is an independent, nonprofit research institution inWashington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resourcedecisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF iscommitted to being the most widely trusted source of research insights and policy The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may differ from thoseof other RFF experts, its officers, or its directors. Sharing Our Work Our work is available for sharing and adaptation under an Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) license. Youcan copy and redistribute our material in any medium or format; you must giveappropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made,and you may not apply additional restrictions. You may do so in any reasonablemanner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.You may not use the material for commercial purposes. If you remix, transform, or Abstract Overlapping economic, energy security, and environmental rationales have contributedto relatively broad political support for biofuel policy in the United States overtime. Biofuels can reduce reliance on imported petroleum, create new markets foragricultural and forestry products, and are often discussed as a potential near-termoption for decarbonizing difficult-to-electrify sectors such as aviation, marine shipping,and heavy-duty transport. Expanding biofuel production, however,