中国AI基础设施：为AI数据中心供电与散热——8000亿元新机遇

RMB800bn worth of new opportunitiesIndustryOverview NopowernoAl:China2030non-ITcapexatRMB800bn triple vs. 2025. While US is a global leader in Al, we note that China plays an importantrole in global Al competition. We see China Al capex at RMB600-700bn in 2025, driven ChinaAl Infrastructure by government spending (including telco) and major internet firms (Exhibit 4). We expectsuch capex to grow at 25-30% CAGR to RMB2-2.5tn (US$280-350bn) by 2030. Power isfundamental to Al, fueling DC for model training & inference. President Trump explicitlymore vital, due to 1) fast adoption of AIDC vs. IDC (more training power draw); 2) high-performance computing chips deployment; and 3) higher server rack power density. IEAexpects global DC use of power to grow 2.3x from416TWh in 2024 to 946TWh in 2030(1.6% global power demand),a CAGR of 15%. We forecast China DC use of power to risefrom 102TWh to 277TWh in 2024-30E, a CAGR of 18%. We expect Al non-IT capex, or Alinfrastructure (Al metals,power, equipment, cooling,E&C) market size to grow toRMB800bn (c.USs110bn) by 2030, accounting for one-third of total China Al capex.Powered up for Al - nuclear, equipment, ESS, generators Matty Zhao >>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong) matty.zhao@bofa.comYibing Xia >Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) +852 3508 8045yibing.xia@bofa.comMing Hsun Lee, CFA >>ResearchAnalvstMerrll Lynch (Hong Kong) Gary Tsang >>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) Summer Wang, CFA >>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong) Compared with US, EU and SEA, China is well powered up for Al with high abundantpower capacity,low power cost, dominance in renewables,strong grid & equipment Miriam Chan, CFA >>Research Analyst supply. We identify five opportunities: 1) nuclear & uranium, with China capacity to growfrom60GW in2025to100GW in2030 (60%ofglobal capacity under construction),leading to uranium shortage and price hike. Buy CGN Mining; 2) strong China gridinvestment & US/EU grid upgrade leads to fast transformer demand growth. BuySieyuan/ Jinpan/ Huaming/ HD Hyundai; 3) we see global ESS installation growth of 21%CAGR in 24-30E, and China players' order growth CAGR of 30%+ in 25-27E. China's15FYP also stresses to develop ESS. Buy Sungrow/ CATL/ EVE; 4) diesel powergenerator to grow at 28% CAGR in 24-27E. Buy Weichai/ Yuchai; 5) investment in AIDCCooling & Al-related metals (copper, aluminum) Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)See Team Page for List of Analysts We present the key stocks involved below 26E26E Every 10°C rise in server temperature can reduce equipment reliability by up to 50%. With surging Al power need, we expect 42% CAGR for China liquid cooling market in2025-30E, with the penetration rate reaching 45% in 2030; given liquid cooling offers20-50x higher heat-transfer efficiency than air, save up to 30% power and PUE is as lowas 1.1. Buy AvC. Powering Al requires metals like copper (most important), aluminum. Weexpect China direct Al use of copper demand to grow to c.1mnt by2030, accounting for5-6% of total copper demand. The indirect use like grid, power equipment will add up toc.50% of copper demand. We also forecast DC to drive 695kt of aluminum demand by2030E, vs.330kt in 2025, implying a 2025-30E CAGR of 16%. Minor metals liketungsten, tin, and gallium are critical parts for chips and rare earth is important for Alapplications. Buy Zijin Mining/ CMOC/ Chalco/ Hongqiao. China's East to Westcomputing projects lead to optical fiber growth to feed data transition need. ContentsKey chart 122030: Global Al capex to reach USs1.2tn+ 12China 2025 Al Capex at US$85-95bn (RMB600-700bn)12China 2030 Al Capex at US$330bn13China 2030Alnon-ITCapex tobe USS110bn (RMB800bn)13 Powering Al: five new opportunities14 No power, no Al14Al power opportunities #1.Nuclear value chain21Al power opportunities #2. Asia filling equipment gap22Al power opportunities #3.BESS for AIDC24Al power opportunities#4.Powergeneratorfor AIDC26Al power opportunities #5: Al power supply28 Al Cooling: liquid cooling penetration up38 Why cooling important in AIDC?38Liquid Cooling: efficient, power saving, innovation38China cooling market to grow at 42% CAGR in 2025-30E39Trend #1:Immersion cooling(浸没式)penetration to grow6Trend #2: Centralized CDU vs. Distributed CDU40Trend#3:Microchannel（微通道)cold plate technology41Competitive landscape41 Asia roles in growing global Al42 Taiwan's role in Al infra boom42 Korea: structural growth for power equipment; nuclear renaissance43SEA's competitiveadvantage inAl boom45India: limited role in global Al boom46Appendix48 Key chartExhibit 2: China Al capex value chain We present China Al capex value chain below. Exhibit 3: Who powers the AIDC 800 reactor under Source:ZTE Liquid Cooling White Book, BofA Global Research Executive summaryChina Al capex to reach USs330bn+ in 2030E Our global team estimates that Al-related capex will nearly triple between 2025-30E, surpassing US$1.2tn. We expect China Al capex to reach