2024年东盟与中日韩区域经济展望报告

Navigating Tomorrow The report is produced by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) for the use of the AMRO members andhas been reviewed by the Executive Committee. Its publication has been approved by the Executive Committee of theAMRO. Any interpretations or conclusions expressed are not necessarily those of the AMRO members. By making anydesignation of or reference to a particular territory or geographical area, or by using the term “member” or “country” in thisreport, AMRO does not intend to make any judgements as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of theAMRO, all of which are specifically reserved. The factual information covers data for the period up to February 29, 2024, except when stated otherwise. © 2023 ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research OfficeISSN: 2529-7538 Printed in Singapore ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office10 Shenton Way, #15-08 MAS BuildingSingapore 079117 enquiry@amro-asia.orgwww.amro-asia.org Table of Contents ForewordAcknowledgmentsAbbreviations Chapter 1. Macroeconomic Prospects and ChallengesHighlights I.Economic Developments in 2023: A Resilient but Challenging YearDomestic Demand Anchored GrowthWeaker Exports PerformanceGradual DisinflationFinancial Conditions EasedSustained External StrengthII.Outlook for ASEAN+3: Sustained Growth amid Continued DisinflationKey Factors Shaping the Near-Term OutlookIII.Risks to the Outlook: Uncertainties RemainIV.Policy Considerations: To Prepare for TomorrowV.Special Feature: The Long Recovery from COVID-19 AppendixReferences4850 Chapter 2. Navigating TomorrowHighlights I.IntroductionII.Navigating AgingAging in ASEAN+3Macroeconomic Implications of Aging in ASEAN+3Rethinking Aging for ASEAN+3Policy ConsiderationsIII.Navigating Trade ReconfigurationTrade, RealignedA Less Diversified Trade LandscapeRising Importance of Services TradeMacroeconomic Implications of Shifting Global TradeA Balanced View for ASEAN+3Policy ConsiderationsIV.Navigating Technological ChangeASEAN+3: A Technology Powerhouse?Technology as a SolutionReaping the Longevity Dividend with TechnologyAchieving Trade Resilience with TechnologyTechnology, as a Catalyst of ChangeSpecial Feature: ASEAN+3 and the Economic Impact of Generative AIPolicy ConsiderationsV.Summary and Concluding Discussion References Annex. Developments in ASEAN+3 EconomiesBrunei Darussalam CambodiaChinaHong Kong, ChinaIndonesiaJapanKoreaLao PDRMalaysiaMyanmarThe PhilippinesSingaporeThailandVietnam Boxes Box 1.1Migrant Worker Developments in Selected ASEAN+3 Economies7Box 1.2Sticky Food Prices Spice Up ASEAN+3 Inflation Outlook13Box 1.3Drivers of Core Inflation in ASEAN+315Box 1.4Will Risks China Faced in 2023 Carry Over to 2024?26Box 1.5Fiscal Policy: Recent Developments and Outlook32Box 1.6Estimating the Neutral Rate of Interest for Selected ASEAN+3 Economies34Box 1.7Japan’s Yield Curve Control Policy: A Rethink and Its Significance36 Box 2.1Population Aging and Economic Growth: Stocktaking Evidence72Box 2.2Macroeconomic Consequences of Population Aging in China74Box 2.3Old-Age Social Protection in ASEAN+3 Economies79Box 2.4Where Do China and ASEAN Stand in the Ongoing Trade Reconfiguration?96Box 2.5Globalization at a Crossroads: Where Does ASEAN+3 Go From Here?109Box 2.6Gen AI: Augmenting or Displacing Jobs in ASEAN+3?124 Figures Figure 1.1.United States: Federal Funds Rate and 10-year Treasury Note3Figure 1.2.United States: Real GDP Growth and Headline Inflation3Figure 1.3.Selected ASEAN+3: Real GDP Growth4Figure 1.4.Selected ASEAN+3: Output Gap, 2022–20234Figure 1.5.Selected ASEAN+3: Aggregate Real GDP Growth, by Expenditure Category4Figure 1.6.Selected ASEAN+3: Private Consumption Growth5Figure 1.7.Selected ASEAN+3: Unemployment Rate5Figure 1.8.Selected ASEAN+3: Labor Force Participation Rate5Figure 1.9.Selected ASEAN+3: Nominal Wages, by Economy5Figure 1.10.Selected ASEAN+3: Real Gross Fixed Capital Formation and Contribution to GDP Growth6Figure 1.11.Selected ASEAN: Investment Approvals6Figure 1.12.China: Fixed Asset Investment6Figure 1.13.China: Real Consumer Spending6Figure 1.14.ASEAN+3: Goods Export Growth9Figure 1.15.World: Global Semiconductor and Capital Expenditure Cycles10Figure 1.16.Selected ASEAN+3: Goods and Services Export Growth10Figure 1.17.Selected ASEAN+3: Export Growth, by Product Type10Figure 1.18.Selected ASEAN+3: Growth in Exports of Services, by Category10Figure 1.19.Selected ASEAN+3: Tourist Arrivals11Figure 1.20.Selected ASEAN+3: Share of Tourist Arrivals, by Source Economy11Figure 1.21.ASEAN+3: Average Headline and Core Inflation12Figure 1.22.World: Commodity Prices12Figure 1.23.ASEAN+3: Consumer Price Inflation12Figure 1.24.Selected Economies: Policy Interest Rates17Figure 1.25.Selected ASEAN+3: AMRO’s Financial Conditions Index17Figure 1.26.Selected ASEAN+3: Growth in Credit to Private Nonfinancial Sector18Figure 1.