2026东盟与中日韩区域经济展望报告

The report is produced by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) for the use of the AMRO members andhas been reviewed by the Executive Committee. Its publication has been approved by the Executive Committee of theAMRO. Any interpretations or conclusions expressed are not necessarily those of the AMRO members. By making anydesignation of or reference to a particular territory or geographical area, or by using the term “member” or “country” inthis report, AMRO does not intend to make any judgements as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. As Timor-Leste is not currently a member of AMRO, it falls outside AMRO's formal surveillance mandate. Consequently,Timor-Leste is not included in the ASEAN+3 regional economic assessment, except where specifically noted forinformational context. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities ofthe AMRO, all of which are specifically reserved. The factual information covers data for the period up to March 13, 2026, except when stated otherwise. © 2026 ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research OfficeISSN: 2529-7538 Printed in Singapore ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office10 Shenton Way, #15-08 MAS BuildingSingapore 079117 enquiry@amro-asia.orgwww.amro-asia.org Table of Contents ForewordAcknowledgmentsAbbreviationsviviiiix Chapter 1. Macroeconomic Prospects and ChallengesHighlights12 I.Economic Developments in 2025: Better Than Expected PerformanceTrade Held Firm Despite Unprecedented Trade Policy UncertaintyDomestic Demand Anchored GrowthInflation Remained Low and StableFinancial Conditions Eased After April VolatilityStronger External Position Provided a Crucial BufferII.Outlook for ASEAN+3: Sustained Growth Amid Elevated UncertaintyBaseline Growth and Inflation OutlookRisk to Outlook: Tilted to the Downside with Uncertainty Remaining ElevatedIII.Policy Considerations: Preserving Policy Flexibility Amid UncertaintyFiscal PolicyMonetary PolicySpecial Feature: Decision-Making in the Dark – ASEAN+3 Monetary Policy in a High-UncertaintyEnvironment34567810101214151618 AppendixReferences Chapter 2. A More Regionally Anchored ASEAN+3: The Transformation ofEconomic LinkagesHighlights4546 IntroductionI.Changing Patterns of ASEAN+3 Economic LinkagesASEAN+3 in the Global Trade LandscapeSupply Chain Linkages: Reconfiguration Around ChinaFinal Demand Linkages: Reorientation Toward the RegionInvestment Linkage: Reinforcing Trade and Production NetworksII.Regional Business Cycle Synchronization and Policy ImplicationsBusiness Cycle Synchronization in ASEAN+3: Increasing Regional SynchronizationPolicy Discussion: Managing Increasing SynchronizationIII.Harnessing Economic Linkages for Long-term Growth and ResilienceMapping ASEAN+3 GVC Integration: Value Chain Upgrading and Concentration RiskThree Policy Priorities: Upgrading, Resilience, and InclusionSummary and Concluding DiscussionSpecial Feature: ASEAN at a Crossroads: Pathways for Deeper Economic Integration4748485053575959636565666970 References Boxes Box 1.1US Tariff Developments: A Key Source of Global Trade Uncertainty26Box 1.2Overview of ASEAN's Foreign Direct Investment in 202528Box 1.3Key Developments in ASEAN+3 Financial Markets30Box 1.4Resilience Amid Tariffs: Cambodia and Vietnam's Export Performance Under US Trade Measures31Box 1.5Scenario Analysis: Alternative Projections for ASEAN+333Box 1.6Scenario Analysis: Possible Impact of the Middle East Conflict on the ASEAN+3 Outlook35Box 1.7Government Debt and Financing Needs in ASEAN+3 Economies37Box 1.8Timor-Leste: A Brief Account on ASEAN Newest Member State39 Box 2.1Japan as the Region's Hub Before the 2000s76Box 2.2China's Emergence as a Source of Global and Regional Final Demand78Box 2.3China's External Balance Sheet: From Reserve Accumulation to Outward Investment80Box 2.4Inflation Co-movement and Supply Chain Linkages in ASEAN+382Box 2.5Semiconductor GVCs: Contrasting Upgrading Paths in Korea and Malaysia84Box 2.6Macroeconomic Impacts of ASEAN+3 Green Energy Integration on CLM Economies87 Figures Figure 1.1.Comparison Between Real GDP Growth and Post-Liberation Day Forecast3Figure 1.2.Breakdown of ASEAN+3 Real GDP Growth3Figure 1.3.ASEAN+3 (excl. China) Monthly Goods Exports to Selected Economies4Figure 1.4.China Monthly Goods Exports to Selected Economies4Figure 1.5.Global Semiconductor Cycle and Capital Expenditure5Figure 1.6.ASEAN+3 Semiconductor Export Growth5Figure 1.7.ASEAN+3 Tourist Arrivals5Figure 1.8.Growth in Exports of Services for ASEAN+3, by Category5Figure 1.9.Contribution of Private Consumption to GDP Growth for ASEAN+36Figure 1.10.Unemployment Rates and Labor Force Participation for ASEAN+36Figure 1.11.Contribution of Gross Fixed Capital Formation to GDP Growth for ASEAN+36Figure 1.12.Inward Investment Announcements by Subregion6Figure 1.13.ASEAN+3 Headline and Core Inflation7Figure 1.14.ASEAN+3 Headline Inflation by Components7Figure 1.15.Financial Condi