诺和诺德：2026年第一季度业绩超预期推动指引小幅上调

Shan Mian+44 20 7676 8981shan.mian@bernsteinsg.com RatingUnderperform Maximilian Brewster+44 20 7550 2193maximilian.brewster@bernsteinsg.com Price Target NOVOB.DC 175.00 DKK Specialist Sales Christian Moore+1 917 344 8555christian.moore@bernsteinsg.com Novo (UP): 1Q26 beat drive minor guide raise 1Q26: (i) Core P&L: out-performance assisted Wegovy pill US stocking:Total revenues(DKK 70 Bn; - 4% at constant exchange rates (CER) and +1% above consensus (IR collatedthroughout). Absolute revenue outpeformance was DKK0.9bn but the Wegovy pill USstocking was DKK1bn. Adjusted operating profit was DKK 33 Bn (-4% at CER and +14%above consensus) for a margin of 46.9% (-300bps yoy but +500bps above consensus).SG&A (-13% at CER and -8% below consensus) was helped by reduction in a legal provisionand restructuring(ii)Top line variance: notable consensus beats were ina)Ozempic (GLP1diabetes; -7% CER growth and +7% above consensus) and Wegovy (GLP1 obesity; +12%CER growth and +5% above consensus). But both declined yoy due to lower realizedprices (in the commercial channel) and lower volumes in the US.b)Wegovy Pill (+95% >consensus) driven by above expectations prescriptions, with totally weekly prescriptionsexceeding 200k for the week ending April 17th. But 90% of the revenue outperformancevs consensus in 1Q26 driven by stocking. Post a call IR its unclear how quickly this stock isexpected to burn off. Close Date5 May 2026NOVOB.DC Close Price (DKK)285.90Price Target (DKK)175.00Upside/(Downside)(39)%52-Week Range533.40/224.25EDME1,509.74FYEDecDiv Yield4.1%Market Cap (DKK) (B)1,276.54EV (DKK) (B)1,380.54 2026 guidance upgraded, albeit marginally: (i)excluding the 340B provision reversalgroup sales and adjusted EBIT growth both now expected to decline by 4-12% both atconstant exchange rates CER)). This compares to 5-13% CER declines at both these P&Llines communicated with the FY25 results. The guidance upgrade is driven by increasedexpectations for GLP1 sales(ii)the consensus IR poll prior to these results projectedgroup sales and adjusted EBIT declines (at the medians) of 7% and 8% respectively both atCER. The mid-point of the new FY26 guidance ranges both imply 8% declines at CER(iii)mechanically, this suggests to us that upgrades to the consensus sales and EBIT forecastsmight be in the ca. 1% range(iv)Net financials: loss of ca. DKK0.6bn now expected (vsDKK 2.3bn gain prior). (Capex and tax rate guidance retained at DKK55bn and 21-23%respectively). Semaglutide patent expiries:Canadian generics now approved but not launched yet. R&D:zenagamtide (amycretin, NN948) phase 3 program now launched Capital allocation:25% of DKK15bn buyback (‘deadline’ 1/2/27) completed by 4/5/26. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We calculate our Price Target via the average of our DCF (DKK 191; 8% WACC & 0% perpetuity growth) and ‘26-’28 EV/EBITAmultiples (DKK 160; 36% discount to EU peers) to be consistent with our existing EU biopharma coverage. Our PT implies a 10xPE26 for discounts to EU peers, Lilly (O; Courtney Breen) and Novo’s 20-year history of 40%, 67% and 61% respectively. (OnPE30 the PT discounts to EU peers and Lilly are 30% and 53% respectively). BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Novo Nordisk A/S Our price target (DKK175) is the average of an EV/EBITA-multiples based valuation (applying a 36% discount to 2026-28e peergroup and DCF (WACC 8.0%, terminal growth 0%). RISKS Novo Nordisk A/S Upside risks: 1. The major FDA approved growth drivers (Ozempic, Wegovy and Oral-Sema) and pipeline (in particular Cagri-Sema)deliver the consensus estimates 2. Novo’s manufacturing scale means that patent expiries are even more benign than we expect3. Management engages in major, value accretive, bridging M&A. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500