本迪戈银行：2026年澳大利亚农业展望报告

AustralianAgricultureOutlook Contents Executive summary.................................................................................................................. 3Economic outlook...................................................................................................................... 5Cattle.................................................................................................................................................. 6Cropping........................................................................................................................................... 9Dairy................................................................................................................................................. 14Horticulture.................................................................................................................................. 17Sheep...............................................................................................................................................22Wool..................................................................................................................................................25Climate and carbon..............................................................................................................28 Executive summary Bendigo Bank’sAustralian Agriculture Outlook 2026report provides an in-depthperspective on supply, demand, and price outlooks for six of Australia’s majoragricultural commodities. By analysing historical trends and considering futurescenarios, the Outlook presents a detailed view on what lies ahead for Australianfarmers to help them make informed business decisions. The next six months forAustralian agriculture will be impacted by two key factors, seasonal conditions andthe economic environment, both of which have the capacity to significantly benefitor hamper the industry as we move through the first half of 2026. Cattle Strong beef production and export demand along with stable pricesindicate a favourable outlook for the cattle industry. Cropping Harvest pressure keeps wheat soft early, but Q2 strength should emergeas Southeast Asian feed demand lifts. Barley expects support from Chinaand Middle East demand into early 2026. The past 12 months have presented a broad mix of seasonal conditions across thecountry, with some areas benefitting from favourable rainfall, while others havecontended with drought conditions. A dry start across the southeast and partsof Western Australia initially raised concerns for this year’s winter crop, althougha favourable winter period helped improve the outlook considerably. However,dry conditions across the southeast in spring have resulted in a large area cut forhay, while rainfall in October has helped finish some of the later sown crops. Froma livestock perspective, the northern regions have benefitted from timely rainfalland strong feed availability, while dry conditions across the southern regions haveresulted in elevated feed costs and reduced production. The current forecast fromthe Bureau of Meteorology is tipping a relatively even chance of above or belowmedian rainfall from January to March in the eastern states, while Western Australiais more likely to see drier conditions. This is paired with the expectation of abovemedian maximum temperatures over this period across the country, which will furtherincrease the drying out of soils. Given the importance of soil moisture during sowingand the low stocking rates across the southeast following a prolonged period ofdry conditions, growers will be hoping for significant rainfall to start 2026 and buildconfidence for the season. Dairy Expectations for milk production have improved whilst the outlook forfarmgate milk prices has eased. Downside risks cloud the outlook for both. Horticulture A shift in market dynamics with uncertain export demand, strong supplyforecasts and the high costs environment driving a slightly less favourableoutlook compared to 2025. Sheep The recent run of strong prices is expected to continue into 2026 due tofirm demand and the tight supply environment. Wool The Australian wool industry is looking to build on its positive startto the season, as constrained supplies continue to support prices. The trade environment has seen a volatile 2025, with the second TrumpAdministration bringing a range of tariffs and disruptive policies. Australia is highlyexposed to changes in the global trade environment, as the country exports overtwo thirds of its agricultural product. The trade conflict, centred around the US and China, has presented both challenges andopportunities for Australia. Demand for Australianred meat has been supported, while the trade dealsestablished between the US and some Asian nationsmay impact demand for Australian grain. There hasbeen an easing in trade tensions over the recent months,although uncertainty and volatility is expected toc