中国医药股：2025财年业绩符合预期；关注ASCO会议数据及业务发展驱动的利润率扩张

EquitiesPharmaceuticals FY25 in-line;watch for ASCO readout and BD-drivenmargin expansion China ◆Chinesepharmacompaniesreported generally in-line FY25results despite tight domestic medical insurance cost controls Linda Shu*, PhD (Reg. No. S1700522120001)Head of China Healthcare ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedlinda.y.l.shu@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 755 88983246 ◆2026 ASCO and businessdevelopment (BD) could be nextcatalysts Cindy Chai* (Reg. No. S1700523040001)Analyst, China Healthcare ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedcindy.x.r.chai@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 5066 2005 ◆Prefer Hansoh (Buy);Maintain BuyratingsonHengrui, CMS,CSPC and SBP,andHoldonFosun-A/H and Livzon-A/H Andre Sun* (Reg. No. S1700526040001)Analyst, China HealthcareHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedandre.h.j.sun@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 50662034 2025 results largely inline for drug sales;BD revenue recognition a bit vague.Our covered pharma names reported largely in-line top-line growth in 2025, with thedifferences to our and market consensus estimatesmainly reflectingbusinessdevelopment (BD)revenuerecognitiontiming. For Sino Biopharm(SBP, Buy)and CSPC(Buy), we expect cUSD300mandUSD120m BD revenuerecognitionto be delayed to2026.Despite cost control from domestic medical insurance, most leading pharmanamesstill maintain high-single to low-double-digit product salesgrowth, driven by their 20%+innovativedrugsales ramp-up.Looking ahead, we expectimprovedrevenue growth of11% on averagein 2026for our coveredpharma names,supportedbymore innovativedrug launchesand ramp-up and more BD opportunities for early-stage pipelines. Pharmanames are trading atan average16x 2026e PE,withaverage17% earnings growth. Wethink sector valuation is still attractive, with upcoming readoutsinAmerican Society ofClinical Oncology (ASCO),and potentialupsidefrom BDs. Major downside risks for thesector include earlier-than-expected VBP on biosimilars,fiercerprice cutsfor generics,stricter medical cost control policies,andgeopolitical risks. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Readoutstobeexpectedin 2026.We expectHengrui(Buy)toreportphase III data forfive ADCs, oral GLPand GLP1/GIP;Hansohto report China phase III data for B7H3ADCinSCLCand osteosarcoma, GLP1/GIP in obesity,followed bytheirnew drugapplications(NDA), per company;CSPC’s EGFR ADC to report phase III data in 2LEGFRm NSCLC, phaseI innasopharyngeal cancer(NPC)(atAACR),esophagealsquamous cell carcinoma(ESCC)andgastric cancer (GC), and KN026 to report phaseIII in 1Lbreast cancer (BC),adjuvantBC and GC;its other phase I readoutsarefromB7H3 ADC, PD1/IL15, Nectin-4 ADC.We expectSBPto report phase II CLDN18.2 ADCdata (atASCO).ItsCCR8 phase I data in 1Lprostate cancer(PC)and 1L GC, andEGFR/c-METADC phase I data in solid tumours, are expected at ESMO.Inaddition,LaNova’spartner MSDexpectstorelease PD1/VEGF ph I data(AACR).We expectFosun’s PDL1 ADC to report monotherapy proof of concept (POC) in ESCC, CC, NPCand GC, and PD1 combo POC in NSCLC, SCLC and CRC. Itnoted that its PD1 willupdate China perioperative GC phase III data and US ES-SCLC bridge study data,followed by NDA. Update target priceswith unchanged ratings; Hansoh our preferred stock.Welike pharma companies withstrong sustainable growth and strengthened R&D forbusiness development. We preferHansoh(Buy),andmaintain our Buy ratingsforHengrui,CMS,CSPCandSBP,withHold ratingsforFosun-A/HandLivzon A/H.Seepages5-13for valuation, potential share price catalysts and key risks. HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBCQianhai Securitiesat:https://www.research.hsbc.com SinoBiopharm(1177HK,Buy, TP HKD9.00) 2025 results and estimatechanges Sino Biopharm (SBP Group) reported RMB31.8bn revenue in 2025, up 10.3% y-o-y whilebeing6% below our estimates. The miss is due to a delay inbooking aUSD300m upfront paymentfromtheLM-299 deal (LaNova’s PD1-VEGF).Adjusted net income was down 33% y-o-y, due toan RMB2.06bn financial asset impairment. Looking ahead, we continue to like SBP Groupforitsinnovative transition. We expectfourinnovative drug launchesin 2026e, including TQB3616(CKD2/4/6), M701 (CD3/EPCAM),anIDH1inhibitorandaHER2inhibitor,whichtogetherweexpectwouldgenerate cRMB460m revenue in 2026. AlongsideLaNova’s(acquired by SBP inJuly 2025)early phasebreast cancer,lung cancerandgastric cancerassets, plus a good trackrecord of clinical trialsandthestrongcommercialisation capabilities of SBP, we expect the twocompanies to create ongoing synergyfrom 2026. A major downside risk would bean earlier-than-expectednational VBP on biosimilars. We raise our2026 revenue estimates by 8% as we factor in a USD300m BD upfront payment in2026; welowerou