CBRE 2026年印度住宅市场展望报告（英文版）（16页）.pdf

Market Outlook2026 REPORT WearepleasedtopresenttheIndiaMarketOutlook2026,ourpremiermarketintelligencereportdeliveringadistilledperspectiveonthenation’sevolvingrealestatelandscape.Anchoredbydata-drivenrigourandinstitutionalexpertise,thispublicationaimstodecipherthestructuralshiftsandstrategictrajectoriesdefiningthesector’scurrentmomentum. India’seconomiclandscapecontinuestobecharacterisedbyaresilientgrowthbaselineandadisciplinedfiscalframework,albeitincreasinglytestedbyglobalvolatility.Whilerobustpubliccapitalexpendituresustainsdomesticmomentum,systemicrisks—particularlywithinenergymarkets—necessitateacalibratedoutlook.Inthisenvironment,proactivetradediplomacyandstrategicprojectde-riskingcouldserveasvitalbuffers,providingthepolicyvisibilityessentialforsustainedinvestment. Anshuman MagazineChairman & CEOIndia, South-East Asia, MiddleEast & Africa, CBRE Theofficesectorissettosurpassthe1-billion-sq.-ft.thresholdin2026,drivenbyinvestment-gradesupplyandtheexpansionofGCCsintohigh-complexityR&Drolesandproductownership.Thismulti-dimensionalecosystemisbeingredefinedbyastructuralpivottowardsAI-drivenworkforcestrategies,whereoccupiersincreasinglyprioritisefuture-ready,high-performanceenvironmentstosustainlong-terminstitutionalgrowth. Paralleltothis,theindustrialandlogisticssectorsaretransitioningtowardsmanufacturing-ledgrowthandinstitutional-gradewarehousing,bolsteredbynew-ageautomationanddeepeningin-citydeliverynetworks.Simultaneously,theretaillandscapeisbeingreshapedbyexperientialflagshipformatsanddestinationmalls,asinvestment-gradesupplyandhigh-streetcorridorsdrivethe Foreword steadyexpansionoftheorganisedfootprint. Notably,theresidentialsectorismovingtowardsmarketequilibrium,ledbypremiumdemandanddisciplinedsupply-demandparity.Atthesametime,structuralREITreformsandsustainedinvestmentmomentumareacceleratinginstitutionalmaturity,drivingaresurgenceininternationalcapitalandlong-termequityinflowsintoIndia’srealestatesector. Collectively,theseshiftsunderscoreamarketmovingtowardsasophisticatederaofinstitutional-gradematurity.Wetrustthisreportwillserveasadefinitiveframeworkfornavigatingthecomplexitiesofthe2026landscapeandinformingyourstrategiccapitalobjectives. Abhinav JoshiHead of Research, India, MiddleEast & North Africa, CBRE Contents EconomyResidential0408 Economy01 India’s2026economicoutlookischaracterisedbyaresilientgrowthbaselineandmaturingfiscalframework,thoughthisstabilityisincreasinglybeingtestedbyongoingglobalgeopoliticalvolatility.WhilenominalGDPisprojectedtoexpandby10.5%thisfiscal,supportedbyafirmpubliccapexoutlayofINR12.2lakhcrore,externalpressures—particularlyinglobalenergymarkets—poseaprimarysystemicrisk.Inthiscontext,thegovernment’scontinuedfocusonproactivetrade diplomacyto secure preferentialaccess to economiesrepresentingnearlythree-quartersofglobalGDP,alongsideprojectde-riskingviacreditsupport,couldprovideavitalstrategicbufferandthepolicyvisibilityessentialforsustainedinvestmentacrosssectors. India’s Economy in 2025: A Brief Revisit Strategic infrastructure push through public capex Rebound in domestic consumption aided by tax concessions Domestic demand fuelled India’s growth momentum in 2025, catalysed by the UnionThroughout 2025, the government maintained a strong emphasis on capitalexpenditure to bridge investment gaps and modernise national infrastructure.The public capex outlay for FY2026 reached ~INR 11.2 lakh crore5, with fundsdirected towards the creation of productive assets. This sustained capex push, representing nearly 3.1% of GDP5, served as a keycatalyst for the construction sector’s robust performance during the year. Byenhancing multi-modal connectivity under the PM Gati Shakti framework, the government also aims to reduce logistics costs and incentivise greaterprivate-sector participation across the manufacturing and warehousingsectors. INR 230 lakh crore during April-December 20259, while two-wheeler sales in CY2025touched 2.03 crore10, reflecting broad-based consumption momentum spanning bothurban and rural markets. Top Trends Expected to Shape India’s Economic Trajectory in 2026 In tandem, the RBI MPC (February 2026) adjusted its CPI inflation forecast to 4.0% for Q1 FY2027, reflecting a modestupward adjustment while remaining within the target band4. Central to this stability is the government’s commitment to a4.3% fiscal deficit target for the next financial year, with a further glide path to 3.8% by FY2028. This is further supported by agradual decline in the central government’s debt-to-GDP ratio, projected at 55.6% for FY2027 and a medium-term target of50.0% by FY20311. This fiscal roadmap aims to reduce the sovereign interest burden, thereby securing the long-term capitalnecessary for sustained public infrastructure investment. Strategic trade breakthroughs amidst heightened global uncertainties India’s 2026 economic outlook is shaped by a strategic expansion of its trade network, even as heightened geopolitical volatility **Note: On 27 February 2026