2026年可再生能源展望报告：政策变动下的韧性重构 (英文版)

Renewables recalibrate for resilience amid policy shifts 2025 has been a challenging year for renewables. The new tax law, commonly referred to as the One BigBeautiful Bill Act, rolled back many clean energy tax credits and imposed new restrictions, pressuringearly-stage wind and solar pipelines. Wind and solar investments in the first half of 2025 fell 18%, to nearly US$35 billion (prior to the enactment of this act), compared to the same period in 2024. Still, renewables dominated US capacity growth, accounting for 93% of additions (30.2 gigawatts)through September 2025, with solar and storage making up 83%.2 Deployment could surge in 2026 as developers shift to safe-harbor projects, while the new foreign entityof concern (FEOC) sourcing rules—restrictions targeting entities linked to covered nations (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) through ownership, control, or jurisdiction—take effect.3With only 35% of thepipeline under construction, renewable starts are expected to accelerate despite supply chain pressures Executives may focus on near-term deployment to capture safe-harbor credits while embedding flexibility This 2026 outlook highlights five key trends shaping the year ahead, along with associated risks and 1.Policy shifts: Adapting to a changing energy landscape2.Storage integration: Delivering clean, firm power on demand3.Capital and operational efficiency: Implementing a leaner, smarter strategy4.Strategic merger and acquisition: Attracting capital through platform and mature assets5.Supply chain agility: Prioritizing alternative sourcing and reshoring 1. Policy shifts: Adapting to a changing energy Policy changes in 2025 may worsen compressed timelines and raise costs, reshaping renewable economics.The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) shortened qualification windows for wind and solar credits, while new guidance from the Internal Revenue Service requires continuous construction.4FEOCrestrictions further raise supply chain pressures, making developers weigh credit value against compliance These shifts also create additional clarity through 2030.5Deloitte analysis projects that annual solar,wind, and storage additions between 2026 and 2030 could fall to a range of 30 GW to 66 GW, downfrom a range of 54 GW to 85 GW under pre-OBBBA trajectories (figure 1).6 Compressed timelines and shifting economics Wind and solar developers are accelerating projects to secure safe-harbor eligibility. Pre-2026 starts: Projects that begin construction by Dec. 31, 2025, may still qualify for tax creditswithout being subject to the new FEOC restrictions and have four years to be placed in service,potentially preserving credits with supply flexibility.8Mid-2026 starts: Projects beginning construction by July 4, 2026, or in service by 2027, may stillqualify but face uncertainty around FEOC compliance. Beyond utility-scale wind and solar, phaseouts are reshaping other technologies. The residential solar 25Dcredit sunsets after 2025, pushing installers toward leasing, power purchase agreements (PPAs), and cooperatives, while storage, hydro, and geothermal retain longer credit windows into the 2030s. Phaseouts alone could increase solar costs by 36% to 55%over the next yearand onshore wind by 32%to 63%, but data center demand and rising electricity prices reinforce renewable viability.10solar already outcompetes natural gas combined cycle in many regions without credits. Project and trade headwinds The Department of the Interior paused offshore wind leasing, removed designated areas, and haltedprojects.12Funding reductions across agencies are impacting siting and financing,13whiletheEnvironmental Protection Agency’s proposed repeal of the endangerment finding and fossil plant Trade investigations are compounding costs. Antidumping and countervailing duties investigations aretargeting solar and battery inputs, while Section 232 probes could extend exposure to wind and electricalcomponents.14 States as swing factors In 2024, 28 states with renewable portfolio standards (RPS) drove 37% of renewable additions.15 Yetmomentum is uneven: Ohio is sunsetting its RPS after 2026, while North Carolina rolled back its 2030carbon reduction target, both citing affordability concerns.16More states could revisit commitmentsunder economic pressure. Permitting and long-term targets remain critical levers, but local opposition andinterconnection queues still pose barriers.17 In 2026, developers are working toward front-loading construction to secure safe-harbor eligibility andfour-year flexibility, diversifying suppliers and investing domestically to manage FEOC and tariffs, andsiting projects where market drivers, RPS support, and permitting clarity sustain deployment. Supply 2. Storage integration: Delivering clean, firm power on Hyperscalers are driving unprecedented demand for firm, low-carbon power.18The United States hosts90% of hyperscalers’ global carbon-free energy contracts, with renewables supplying