早晨洞察：2026年3月25日

Morning Insight:March 25, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Fuel Oil & LSFO:Strength pauses as prompt tightness is fully priced; Recent spot market performance in both high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) andlow-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) indicates that prompt cargoes for early April As prompt loading schedules across regions become clearer, market focus Looking ahead, on the HSFO side, whether Russia can step in to fill thesupply gap left by the Middle East will be a key supply-side variable. On For LSFO, the supply gap left by Kuwait will need to be gradually filledby other regions. However, exports from Brazil—a key supplier to the Domestically, if major state-owned refiners further increase throughputwithout raising refined product yields, LSFO output could gradually Lithium carbonate:Futures opened higher and extended gains yesterday,closing at RMB 152,940/tonne, up 6.1%. The move was primarily driven bycontinued market focus on policy disruptions in Zimbabwe. According to In fact, the upstream market remains tight. Processing fees for lithiumore have declined to RMB 18,000–18,500/tonne, while domestic ore On the demand side, although domestic EV sales growth has softened year-on-year, higher battery capacity per vehicle and resilient EV exports In the near term, price action is heavily influenced by news flow andmacro factors. However, tightness in the upstream continues to underpin Strategy: Favor a buy-on-dips approach, while managing elevated Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. The People's Bank of China on Tuesday announced that it will carry outa 500-billion-yuan (about 72.52 billion U.S. dollars) one-year medium- The central bank said this MLF will be conducted through variable-rate With a 450-billion-yuan MLF maturing this month, the move will result in a net injection of 50 billion yuan, marking the 13th consecutive month of The MLF was introduced in 2014 to help commercial and policy banksmaintain liquidity by allowing them to borrow from the central bank by 2.Chinese companies and researchers filed a record 22,031 patentapplications with the European Patent Office (EPO) in 2025, with China The figure marked a year-on-year increase of 9.7 percent and accountedfor 10.9 percent of all applications filed at the EPO, making China the Digital communication was the field with the highest number of patentapplications from China. Transport and semiconductors were the fastest- In terms of company rankings, Chinese tech giant Huawei ranked secondamong all companies filing patent applications at the EPO in 2025, with4,744 applications. Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Overall, a record 201,974 patent applications were filed at the EPO in2025, up 1.4 percent from the previous year. Computer technology remained "The record volume of patent applications underlines Europe's innovativecapacity and its appeal as a global technology market," said EPO 3. China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) directly administered by thecentral government are urged to intensify relocation to and investment in A meeting held on Tuesday by the State-owned Assets Supervision andAdministration Commission of the State Council called on central SOEs to Efforts should be made to ensure smooth progress in relieving Beijing offunctions non-essential to its role as China's capital, the meeting said, The commission emphasized the need to continue guiding central SOEs toconcentrate investment in the new area, actively participate in the Central SOEs were encouraged to implement key projects that strengthenindustrial chains and have a clustering effect, to attract more Efforts should also be made to guide central SOEs to establish morequalified research institutions, high-tech enterprises and pilot bases in To support the high-quality development of the new area, the commissionalso expressed support for central SOEs to develop internationally Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information i