晨间洞察：2026年2月25日

Morning Insight:February 25,2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Lithium carbonate:Supply–demand conditions are relatively tight, andprices are biased to the upside in the short term. Futures surgedyesterday as capital rotated into a supply-tightening narrative. On thenews front, adjustments to U.S. tariff policies during the holiday areexpected to reduce export tariffs on energy storage batteries by 5%, Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's civil aviation sector handled 22.05 million passenger tripsduring the 2026 Spring Festival holiday--up 7.7 percent from the same The sector operated an average of 18,956 flights each day of the nine-dayholiday, which concluded on Monday, marking a 4.4 percent increase from The Spring Festival, which is also known as Chinese New Year, fell onFeb. 17 this year, providing an occasion for family reunions and travel. Data from the Ministry of Transport shows that more than 2.8 billion 2. The People's Bank of China on Tuesday announced that it will conduct a600-billion-yuan (about 86.44 billion U.S. dollars) one-year medium-term The central bank said the MLF operation will be carried out using afixed-quantity, interest-rate-bidding and multiple-price-bidding method. The MLF was introduced in 2014 to help commercial and policy banksmaintain liquidity by allowing them to borrow from the central bank using 3. China's one-year loan prime rate (LPR), a market-based benchmark The over-five-year LPR, on which many lenders base their mortgage rates,also remained unchanged from the previous reading of 3.5 percent, LPRs reflect the level of financing costs for households and businesses.Lower rates will ease the burden on borrowers, leading to higher levels of investment and consumption. Interest rates on newly issued loans in China have stayed at relativelylow levels. Data show that in January 2026, the weighted average interestrate for new corporate loans was around 3.2 percent, about 20 basis Chart 6:Upcoming Important Economic Data Calendar 2026/2/28Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must be used within thepermitted scope, and the source must be indicated as "Guotai Junan Futures Research," along with a reminder of the risks associated Unless otherwise specified, all trademarks, service marks, and logos used in this report are owned by Guotai Junan Futures orare legallyauthorized for use. No individual or institution may use these trademarks, service marks, or logos without the writtenpermission of Guotai