2025年预览：短期利润受定价压力和新工厂盈利能力下降的影响

dragged by pricing pressure andnew plant profitability 2025preview:near-term earnings dragged bypricing pressure andnew plant profitability Target PriceHK$8.40(Previous TPHK$8.84)Up/Downside79.8%Current PriceHK$4.67 BOEVxwill report2H25/FY25E results inmid-March, and we estimate FY25Erevenue/net profit ofHK$14,533mn/378mn(+8%/-3% YoY),implying 2H25Erevenue/net profit ofHK$7,863mn/198mn(+8%/-10% YoY),with profitmainlydragged by domestic destocking pressure,yields in new Vietnam/Chengduplants,andsystembusinessprofitability.Looking into 2026, we are positive onBOEVx’s earnings recovery, backed by overseasshare gains, Vietnamcapacityramp, marginimprovement fromtheChengdu plant and system business.We China Technology Alex NG(852) 3900 0881alexng@cmbi.com.hk Hanqing LIlihanqing@cmbi.com.hk 2H25/FY25E preview: earnings dragged by domestic demand, ASPheadwinds and depreciation pressure.We estimate FY25Erevenuetogrow 8%toHK$14,533mnandnet profittodecline 3% YoY toHK$385mn,9.7%below Bloomberg consensus estimates.For 2H25E,we expectrevenue/net profitofHK$7,863mn/205mn(+8%/-10% YoY), mainlydue todomesticdemand weakness,slower yield improvement in new 2026 outlook: overseassales growthand Vietnam/Chengdu capacityramp-up.For 2026,we are constructiveonearnings recovery: 1) overseassales:continued share gains with 20%+ YoY sales growth, backed byVietnam capacity ramp-up; 2)Chengdu plant: margin improvementgivenhigher UTR and better yield;3)system business:order wins of high-margin Valuation/Key risks.We lower FY25-27E EPS estimates by5-7% to factorin2H25 earningspressure,higherdepreciation costsand slower systembusinessmargin improvement. We trim our TP to HK$8.4based onthesame14.0xFY26E P/E. Weremain positive onBOEVx’s industry leadershipin auto display market, share gainswith overseas OEMs, and strong supportfrom its parent company BOE for R&D technology and order/client wins. Source: FactSet 2025results preview Earnings Revision Valuation Maintain BUY and ournew TP of HK$8.40isbased onthesame14.0x FY26E P/E.Wearepositive on BOEVx’s industry leadership in auto display market, share gainswith overseasOEMs, and strong support fromits parent company BOE for R&D technology andorder/client wins.Trading at7.8x/6.3xFY26/27E P/E, the stock offers attractive risk/reward Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Source: Company data, CMBIGMestimates Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect tothe securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potentialreturn of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates, shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall beliable for any loss, damage or expense whatsoever, whether direct or consequential, incurred in relying on the information contained in this report.Anyonemaking use of the information contained in this report does so entirely at their