2026年2月美国银行全球基金经理调查：资本支出目前过热

Capextoo hotright now BofAFebruary Global Fund Manager SurveyBottom Line: FMS sentiment stays uber-bullish…asset price upside in Q1 harder when all positioned for it; investors most OW commodities since May’22, most OW stockssince Dec’24, most UW bonds since Sep’22; FMS cash 3.4% up from record-low 3.2%. On Macro:“run it hot”so hot right now…most optimism on“boom”since Feb’22, on>10% EPS growth since Aug’21, on growth since Aug’21; but capex too hot right now…CIOs telling CEOs to improve balance sheets (35% from 26%) vs. increase capex (20%from 34%) as FMS investors saying corps“overinvesting”at new record high (Chart 1). OnPolicy & Risk: majority (38%) say Fed chair Warsh = higher UST yields, lower US$;DEM House/GOP Senate = most likely US midterm election result (62%, then 20% DEMsweep); biggest tail risk = AI bubble (25%), most crowded trade = long gold (50%), likelysource of credit event = private credit (43%), 80% positioned for steeper yield curve. OnAsset Allocation: rotation from US stocks to EM (highest since Feb’21) & EU butnot Japan, from tech stocks to energy & materials (highest since Apr'22), investors OWsmall vs. large cap by most since Apr'21, OW value vs. growth by most since Apr'25. FMSContrarian Trades: BofA Bull & Bear Indicator up to 9.5 from 9.4 = contrarian“sell signal”(since Dec 17th) = reduce risk in Q1; contrarian FMS pair trades…long bonds-short gold, long US$-short EM, long tech-short banks, long REITs-short materials. Net % of FMS investors saying companies are “overinvesting” Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources toabsorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take Charts of the Month The February 2026 BofA Global Fund ManagerSurveysuggests global investor sentiment isthe most bullish since Jun'21…our broadestmeasure of FMS sentiment, based on cashlevels, equity allocation, and global growthexpectations, rose to 8.2 from 8.1. Chart2: BofA Global FMS investor sentiment highest since Jun'21Percentile rank of FMS growth expectations, cash level, and equity allocation BofA FMS cash level rose to 3.4%, up from therecord low of 3.2% in January, the first rise in7 months. Inputs from the Feb'26 FMS push the BofABull & Bear Indicator up to 9.5, from 9.4 lastweek (Bull & Bear has been indicatingcontrarian“sell”signal since Dec 17th). Net 52% of FMS investors see“no landing”asthe most likely outcome for the globaleconomy…a record high. Another 40% expect a“soft landing”while just 6% expect a“hardlanding.” What is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months? “No landing”has been the consensus amongFMS investors for two months in a row. FMS expectations fora boom (above-trendgrowth & above-trend inflation) reached thehighest level since Feb’22 (36%). FMS % expecting “boom” (above-trend growth & above-trend inflation) That said, stagflation (below-trend growth &above-trend inflation) is still the consensus per42% of respondents. Another 14% saygoldilocks (above-trend growth & below-trendinflation), and just 5% say stagnation (below-trend growth & below-trend inflation). Net 24% of FMS investors expect that globalcorporate earnings will rise by 10% or more inthe next 12 months. This is thehighest levelsince Aug’21. Net % FMSexpect double-digit earnings growth in the next 12 months 38% of FMS investors believe that, all elseequal, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as thenext Fed Chair will likely lead tohigher USTreasury yields and a lower US dollar. Do you think the nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair will most likely lead to… In the February FMS, investors were askedabout the most likely outcome for the 2026 USmidterm elections (currently Republicans holdmajority in both the US House and the Senate). What outcome do you expect from the 2026 US midterm election? FMS investorssurveyed believe that the mostlikely outcome for the Nov 5thelection is aDemocratic House & Republican Senate (60%).Another 20% expect a "blue wave" (DemocraticHouse & Democratic Senate), while just 12%expect to maintain the Republican House &Republican Senate. “Long gold”was the most crowded trade inFebruary (per 50%), for the second month in arow (was 51% in January). What do you think iscurrently the most crowded trade? 20% of FMS respondents said the mostcrowded trade was“Long Magnificent 7,”down from 54% two months ago. Asked about the biggest tail risk for markets,FMS investors said an“AI bubble”(25%),followed by“inflation”(20%), and“disorderlyrise in bond yields”(17%). What do you consider the biggest ‘tail risk’? Asked for the most likely source of a cred