石油市场5月报比较分析

Summary and Oil Market Context DemandOPEChas maintaineditsglobaloildemandgrowthforecastunchangedinitslatestassessment,projectingyear-on-yeargrowthofapproximately1.3mb/dinboth2025and2026.DemandinOECDcountriesisexpectedtorisemodestlyby0.1mb/dineachyear,whilenon-OECDregions—accountingforthebulkofthegrowth—areprojectedtoseeanincreaseof1.2mb/dannuallyoverthesameperiod. TheEIAhasrevisedits2025globaloildemandgrowthforecastupwardby0.1mb/dcomparedtothepreviousmonth,projectingyear-on-yeargrowthof1.0mb/d.However,thisrepresentsadownwardrevisionof0.4mb/drelativetotheJanuary2025Short-TermEnergyOutlook(STEO).For2026,theEIAanticipatesafurtherdecelerationinglobaldemandgrowthto0.9mb/d.Regionally,India’sfueldemandisprojectedtoincreaseby0.2mb/din2025and0.3mb/din2026,whileChina’sconsumptionisprojectedtoriseby0.2mb/dinbothyears. TheIEAforecastsglobaloildemandgrowthof0.7mb/dy/yin2025,despiteanexpecteddeclineinOECDconsumptionofapproximately120kb/d.For2026,theIEAseesglobaldemandgrowthof0.8mb/dy/y.NewlyavailabledatareleasedbytheIEAalsoindicateanaverageannualincreaseinglobaloildemandofapproximately0.3mb/dbetween2022and2024. growthforecastsstandsat0.6mb/dfor2025and0.5mb/dfor2026,year-on-year SupplyOPECprojects ayear-on-yeargrowthof0.9mb/dinnon-DeclarationofCooperation(non-DoC)liquidsproductionandDoCNGLsin2025,representingadownwardrevisionof0.1mb/dfromthepreviousmonth’sassessment.For2026,growthisalsoprojectedat0.9mb/dy/y.TheprojectedsupplyexpansionisprimarilydrivenbytheUnitedStates,Canada,Brazil,andArgentinainbothyears. TheEIAprojectsyear-on-yeargrowthof1.3mb/dinnon-OPECsupplyandOPECNGLsin2025,followedby1.2mb/din2026.Fornon-DoCsupplyandDoCNGLs,EIAestimatesgrowthof1.4mb/din2025—downby0.1mb/dfromthepreviousmonth’sassessment—andprojectsgrowthof1.0mb/din2026. TheIEAhasmaintaineditsforecastfornon-OPECsupplyandOPECNGLsgrowthat1.4mb/dyear-on-yearin2025,alongsideanunchangedestimateof1.3mb/dfornon-DoCsupplyandDoCNGLs.For2026,theIEAprojectscontinuedgrowthofapproximately1.0mb/dinbothnon-OPECandnon-DoCsupply,representingadownwardrevisionof0.1mb/dyear-on-yearforeachcategory. Summary of 2024-2026 Balances •OPEC has maintained its forecast for global oil demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year in both2025 and 2026. •Non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs may grow by 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d y/y in 2025, according to projections from the EIAand IEA, respectively. 2025 Outlook Comparison Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions •OPEC sees global oil demand to grow by 1.3 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, primarily driven by growth in non-OECDcountries. DoCsupply andDoCNGLs to grow by 1.4 mb/d year-on-year in 2025. Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts •OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 mb/d y/y this month, following a downward revision in the previousmonth driven by updated data and expected changes in trade flows. The EIA projects global oil demand to grow by approximately 1.0 mb/d y/y in 2025. Non-OECD Demand GrowthEvolution of 2025 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day Global Demand GrowthEvolution of 2025 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day OECD Demand GrowthEvolution of 2025 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day The IEA now forecasts total OECD demand to decline by ~ 0.1 mb/d, anupward revision from last month’s estimate of a ~ 0.2 mb/d decline 2025 Demand Growth Forecasts by Regiony/y growth in million barrels perday Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts •OPEC reports a further downward revision this month in its non-DoCsupply growth, lowering the estimates by around 0.1 mb/d y/y.•EIA projects non-OPEC supply to grow by 1.2 mb/d y/y in 2025. •The divergence between OPEC and IEA estimates for non-DoCsupply growth ismorethan0.4 mb/d. The IEA and EIA broadly agree on total non-DoCsupply growth,but differ on Brazil and the Middle East 2025 Supply Growth Forecasts by Regiony/y growth in million barrels perday 1.4 Quarterly divergences in call onDoCsupply estimates acrossagencies increase from ~1.0 mb/d in 1Q25 to ~3.0 mb/d by 4Q25 2026 Outlook Comparison Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions •OPEC projects global oil demand to grow by 1.3 mb/d y/y in 2026.•The EIA forecasts non-OECD oil demand to grow by 1.0 mb/d in2026.•The IEA has revised its third-quarter 2026 forecast upward by 0.6 mb/d. Evolution of 2026 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts •OPEC has maintained its estimate for global oil demand growth at 1.3 mb/d y/y for the second consecutive month. •IEA and EIA estimates for non-OECD demand growth show strong alignment. Non-OECD Demand GrowthEvolution of 2026 Forecastsy/y growth in million barrels per day Evolution of 2026 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts •The EIA maintained its non-DoCsupply growth forecast largely unchanged in this month’s assessment.•The gap between IEA and EIA projections is widening, with a difference of 0.3 mb/d, compared to ~ 0.2 mb/d in the previous re vision. USSupplyGrowthEvolution o