2023年下半年全球粮食市场报告

ISSN0251-1959 FoodOutlook BIANNUALREPORTONGLOBALFOODMARKETS 2022 2023 2021 2020 November2023 FoodOutlook BIANNUALREPORTONGLOBALFOODMARKETS FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsRome,2023 Requiredcitation: FAO.2023.FoodOutlook–Biannualreportonglobalfoodmarkets.FoodOutlook,November2023.Rome.https://doi.org/10.4060/cc8589en ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialinthisinformationproductdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartoftheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)concerningthelegalordevelopmentstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.Thementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturers,whetherornotthesehavebeenpatented,doesnotimplythatthesehavebeenendorsedorrecommendedbyFAOinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned. Theviewsexpressedinthisinformationproductarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsorpoliciesofFAO. ISSN0251-1959[print]ISSN1560-8182[online] ISBN978-92-5-138359-9 ©FAO,2023 Somerightsreserved.ThisworkismadeavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike3.0IGOlicence(CCBY-NC-SA3.0IGO;https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo/legalcode). Underthetermsofthislicence,thisworkmaybecopied,redistributedandadaptedfornon-commercialpurposes,providedthattheworkisappropriatelycited.Inanyuseofthiswork,thereshouldbenosuggestionthatFAOendorsesanyspecificorganization,productsorservices.TheuseoftheFAOlogoisnotpermitted.Iftheworkisadapted,thenitmustbelicensedunderthesameorequivalentCreativeCommonslicence.Ifatranslationofthisworkiscreated,itmustincludethefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththerequiredcitation:“ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbytheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO).FAOisnotresponsibleforthecontentoraccuracyofthistranslation.Theoriginal[Language]editionshallbetheauthoritativeedition.” DisputesarisingunderthelicencethatcannotbesettledamicablywillberesolvedbymediationandarbitrationasdescribedinArticle8ofthelicenceexceptasotherwiseprovidedherein.TheapplicablemediationruleswillbethemediationrulesoftheWorldIntellectualPropertyOrganizationhttp://www.wipo.int/amc/en/mediation/rulesandanyarbitrationwillbeconductedinaccordancewiththeArbitrationRulesoftheUnitedNationsCommissiononInternationalTradeLaw(UNCITRAL). Third-partymaterials.Userswishingtoreusematerialfromthisworkthatisattributedtoathirdparty,suchastables,figuresorimages,areresponsiblefordeterminingwhetherpermissionisneededforthatreuseandforobtainingpermissionfromthecopyrightholder.Theriskofclaimsresultingfrominfringementofanythird-party-ownedcomponentintheworkrestssolelywiththeuser. Sales,rightsandlicensing.FAOinformationproductsareavailableontheFAOwebsite(www.fao.org/publications)andcanbepurchasedthroughpublications-sales@fao.org.Requestsforcommercialuseshouldbesubmittedvia:www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request.Queriesregardingrightsandlicensingshouldbesubmittedto:copyright@fao.org. Photocredits(lefttoright/toptobottom): ©AllFreeDownload;©Shutterstock;©Shutterstock;©AllFreeDownload;©PEXELS;©PEXELS;©iStock;©AllFreeDownload;©FAO;©iStock;©Freepik; ©iStock;©iStock;©iStock;©PEXELS;©Shutterstock HIGHLIGHTS Fproductionoutlooksacrossmostbasice AO’slatestforecastspointtofavourable foodstuffs.However,globalfoodproductionsystemsremainvulnerabletorisksfromextremeweatherevents,risinggeopoliticaltensionsandpolicychanges,potentiallytippingthedelicatedemand-supplybalancesanddampeningprospectsforinternationaltradeinfoodcommoditiesandglobalfoodsecurity. WHEAT Despiteananticipateddeclineinglobalwheatproductionin2023,globalsuppliesareexpectedtoremainatacomfortablelevelin2023/24owingtolargecarryoverstocks.Globalwheattradeispredictedtocontract,reflectingaweakerglobalimportdemand,thewar-relateddisruptionsinUkraineandtighteningsuppliesinsomemajorexportingcountries. COARSEGRAINS Globalcoarsegrainsuppliesarforecasttoreboundin2023/24,largelystemmingfromanexpectedrecordmaizeproduction.Highersuppliesshouldsupportanincreaseinglobalutilizationandstocks,whileworldtradeincoarsegrainsmaydecline. RICE Althoughcurrentprospectsfor2023/24pointtoalikelyrecoveryinworldriceproductionandstocks,highlevelsofinternationalanddomesticriceprices,againstthebackdropofanintensificationofriceexportrestrictions,dampenexpectationsofadiscerniblerevivalinworldriceutilizationandtrade. MEAT Worldmeatproductionisforecasttoexpandin2023,albeitslowly,drivenbyagreatersupplyofanimalsforslaughteramidfavourableproductionconditionsinsomeleadingproducingregions.Meanwhile,internationaltradeinmeatisseenheadingtowardsacontractionashighinflation,sluggisheconomicgrowthandaccumulatedstockslowerimportdemand. SUGAR Worldproductionofsugarisforecasttodeclinein2023/24,afterincreasingfortwoconsecutiveseasons,andfallshortofglobalconsumption.Worldtradeinsugarispredictedtocontractslightlybecauseofexpectedreducedavailabilitiesinkeyexportingcountries. OILCROPS Preliminaryforecastsfor2023/24pointtocontinuedproductionexpansionforoilseeds