From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Kenya

FROMCLIMATERISKTORESILIENCE:UNPACKINGTHEECONOMICIMPACTSOFCLIMATECHANGEINKENYA November2023 ThiscountryreportisajointpublicationoftheAfricanClimateFoundation(ACF)andtheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI),withsupportfromtheCGIARResearchInitiativeonForesightandtheCGIARInitiativeonNationalPoliciesandStrategies.ItwaspreparedundertheoverallguidanceofIvaDetelinova(SeniorAdvisor-ClimateAdaptationandResilience,ACF)andateamconsistingofFaaiqaHartley(ScientistinIFPRI'sForesightandPolicyModelingUnit),TimothyS.Thomas(SeniorResearchFellowinIFPRI'sForesightandPolicyModelingUnit),andWoleHammond(ResearchAssistant-ClimateAdaptationandResilience,ACF),withoversightfromChanningArndt(SeniorDirectorforTransformationStrategies,IFPRI). TheteamwouldliketoexpressitsappreciationfortheprovidedinsightfulcommentsandsupporttoBerberKramer(SeniorResearchFellowinIFPRI'sMarkets,TradeandInstitutionsUnit,Kenya),JosephKarugia(PrincipalScientist -AgriculturalEconomistandPolicyExpertattheInternationalLivestockResearchInstitute(ILRI),Kenya),ClemensBreisinger(CountryProgramLeaderforKenya,IFPRI),KelvinShikuku(Scientist-EconomistatILRI,Kenya),LaurenceHarris(ProfessorofEconomicsatSchoolofFinanceandManagement,SOAS,UniversityofLondon),AdamKennedy(ProgrammeHeadofIFPRI'sDevelopmentStrategiesandGovernanceUnit),andAlanWallis(StrategicAdvisor,ACF). ©InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI),2023. ThisreportislicensedforuseunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0InternationalLicense(CCBY4.0). IFPRIdonotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthecontentcontainedwithintheworkandthereforedoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythirdparty-ownedindividualcomponentorpartcontainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthosethirdparties.Ifyouwishtoreuseacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodeterminewhetherpermissionisneededforthatre-useandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightowner.Examplesofsuchcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto,tables,figuresandimages. Anyopinionsstatedinthisbookarethoseoftheauthor(s)andarenotnecessarilyrepresentativeoforendorsedbyIFPRI.Theboundaries,names,anddesignationsusedinthispublicationdonotimplyofficialendorsementoracceptancebytheauthors,IFPRI,theirpartnersordonors. Imagecredits Cover:iStock;pvi:PrzemyslawStroinski/Unsplash;p15:DamianPatkowski/Unsplash;p24:MuradSwaleh/Unsplash;p40:AdobeStock DesignedandtypesetbyCOMPRESS.dsl|800832|www.compressdsl.com FROMCLIMATERISKTORESILIENCE:UNPACKINGTHEECONOMICIMPACTSOFCLIMATECHANGEINKENYA ––––––iii–––––– TABLEOFCONTENTS Prefaceiv ExecutiveSummaryv ListofAcronymsvii 1.OverviewofclimatechangeimpactonKenya1 Climateprofile1 Recenttrends2 Projectedclimatetrends3 2.Climatechangeimpactonkeyeconomicsectors6 Agriculture7 Tourism13 Hydropower13 Broadermacroeconomicimpactsandvulnerabilities14 3.Kenya’sclimateadaptationandresilienceplanningandpreparedness16 Governmentclimateaction16 Climateadaptationprojects18 Challengestocountrypreparedness20 4.Adaptationstrategiesandrecommendations21 References25 AnnexA:UpdatedNDCprioritizedadaptationprograms31 AnnexB:Climateadaptationprojects34 AnnexC:Keyclimatechange-relatedpoliciesandstrategiesinKenya37 AnnexD:RelevantinstitutionsrelatedtoclimatechangeinKenya40 AnnexE:Kenya’sclimatefinancelandscape41 PREFACE Thisreport,focusedonKenya,formspartof“FromClimateRisktoResilience,”aseriesofcountrystudiesthatanalyzeandexplorethepotentialeconomicandsocialimpactsofclimatechangeonKenya,Malawi,Mozambique,andZambia,focusingonclimate-vulnerableandcriticaleconomicsectors.TheseriesisproducedbytheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI),ascommissionedbytheAfricanClimateFoundation(ACF),withadditionalsupportfromtheCGIARResearchInitiativeonForesight. Eachreportsummarizesanextensiveliteraturereviewandinternalviewsandrecommendationsinfourmainareas.Section1unpacksrecentandprojectedchangestothecountry’sclimateprofileandpatterns,includingupdatedclimatescenarioanalysismodelling.Section2considersthepotentialimplicationsoftheseprojectedclimatechangesforkeyeconomicsectorsandfortheeconomyasawhole.Italsotouchesonthefiscal,trade,andothermacroeconomicimplicationsofclimatechange.Section3providesanoverviewofeachgovernment’sexistingandplannedclimateadaptationmeasuresandpriorities,aswellaskeychallenges.Section4concludeswithstrategicconsiderationsandsuggestions,informedbythecountry’sspecificcircumstances,andthesubsequentstepsthatcouldsupportmobilizationoffundingforclimateadaptationandresiliencemeasures. Thepurposeofthesereportsistwofold.First,theyserveasastartingpointforfurthernationalcomprehensiveclimatechangeassessments,backedbyevidenceandclimatescenarioanalysis.Suchassessmentswouldfacilitatethequantificationofclimatechangeimpacts,offeranuancedunderstandingofpotentialcostsandlosses,considertrade-offsacrossvariousdevelopmentindicators,andthereforehelpgovernmentsinidentifyingandprioritizingstrategicpublicinvestmentsinaclimatechangecontext(buildingonexistingeffortsandstrategies).Itisintendedthatthe“FromClimateRisktoResilience”reportswilllaythefoundationforfurtherengagementwithrespectivegovernments,developme