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工作的新未来：在欧洲及其他地区部署 AI 和提高技能的竞赛

机械设备2024-05-21麦肯锡小***

AI智能总结

A New Future of Work: The Race to Deploy AI and Raise Skills in Europe and Beyond

Overview

The report "A New Future of Work: The Race to Deploy AI and Raise Skills in Europe and Beyond" explores the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation on labor demand across Europe and the United States. It highlights the shifts in labor demand patterns and the necessary adjustments in skills and productivity needed to navigate this transformation.

Key Findings

Labor Market Dynamics: The report identifies labor shortages and a slowdown in productivity growth as significant challenges facing Europe and the U.S. These trends are exacerbated by the increasing adoption of AI technologies.

Automation and Generative AI: By 2030, up to 30% of current hours worked could be automated, particularly accelerated by generative AI capabilities. This automation will affect various sectors differently, leading to both opportunities and challenges.

Occupational Transitions: Europe and the U.S. could require up to 12 million occupational transitions by 2030, double the prepandemic pace. These transitions are necessary to adapt to the changing demands of the labor market.

Skills Required: The demand for technological skills and social-emotional skills is anticipated to rise, while physical skills might stabilize. Executives surveyed express a need for advanced IT, data analytics, critical thinking, creativity, and teaching and training skills.

Impact on Wages: Workers with lower wages face redeployment challenges as demand shifts towards higher-wage occupations. Acquiring new skills is essential for transitioning to better-paying work to avoid a polarized labor market.

Productivity and Growth: Embracing accelerated technology adoption and proactive worker redeployment could help achieve an annual productivity growth rate of up to 3% through 2030 in Europe. Slow adoption limits this growth to 0.3%, similar to today's productivity growth rates.

Conclusion

Navigating the future of work requires strategic planning around skills development, redeployment, and embracing technological advancements. The report underscores the importance of adapting to the changing labor market dynamics to maintain competitiveness and societal outcomes.

This summary captures the essence of the report's findings without delving into specific methodologies, charts, or detailed data points, focusing instead on key themes and implications for decision-makers.

Anewfutureofwork:Theracetodeploy AIandraiseskillsin Europeandbeyond Authors EricHazan AnuMadgavkarMichaelChuiSvenSmitDanaMaor GurneetSinghDandonaRolandHuyghues-Despointes May2024 AbouttheMcKinseyGlobalInstitute TheMcKinseyGlobalInstitutewasestablishedin1990.Ourmissionistoprovideafactbasetoaiddecisionmakingontheeconomicandbusinessissuesmostcriticaltotheworld’scompaniesandpolicyleaders.WebenefitfromthefullrangeofMcKinsey’sregional,sectoral, andfunctionalknowledge,skills,andexpertise,buteditorialdirectionanddecisionsaresolelytheresponsibilityofMGIdirectorsandpartners. Ourresearchisgroupedintofivemajorthemes: —Productivityandprosperity:Creatingandharnessingtheworld’sassetsmostproductively —Resourcesoftheworld:Building,powering,andfeedingtheworldsustainably —Humanpotential:Maximizingandachievingthepotentialofhumantalent —Globalconnections:Exploringhowflowsofgoods,services,people,capital,andideasshapeeconomies —Technologiesandmarketsofthefuture:Discussingthenextbigarenasofvalueandcompetition Weaimforindependentandfact-basedresearch.Noneofourworkiscommissionedorpaidforbyanybusiness,government,orotherinstitution;weshareourresultspubliclyfreeofcharge;andweareentirelyfundedbythepartnersofMcKinsey.Whileweengagemultipledistinguishedexternaladviserstocontributetoourwork,theanalysespresentedinourpublicationsareMGI’salone,andanyerrorsareourown. YoucanfindoutmoreaboutMGIandourresearchatwww.mckinsey.com/mgi. MGIDirectors SvenSmit(chair)ChrisBradleyKweilinEllingrudSylvainJohanssonOliviaWhite MGIPartners MichaelChuiMekalaKrishnanAnuMadgavkarJanMischkeJeongminSeongTilmanTacke Anewfutureofwork:TheracetodeployAIandraiseskillsinEuropeandbeyondii Contents Ataglance 3 Context:Laborshortagesandaslowdowninproductivitygrowth 4 Potentialforacceleratedworktransitionsahead10 Thevariedgeographyoflabormarketdisruptions22 Newskillsforanewera 26 Spotlight:Wholesaleandretailtrade 36 Spotlight:Financialservices 38 Spotlight:Manufacturing 40 Spotlight:Healthcare 42 Implicationsfortheworkforce44 Enhancingproductivityandhumancapitalinatimeoftechnologicalferment 52 Technicalappendix 60 Acknowledgments 65 Anewfutureofwork:TheracetodeployAIandraiseskillsinEuropeandbeyond1 Anewfutureofwork:TheracetodeployAIandraiseskillsinEuropeandbeyond2 Ataglance Amidtighteninglabormarketsandaslowdowninproductivitygrowth,EuropeandtheUnitedStatesfaceshiftsinlabordemand,spurredbyAIandautomation.OurupdatedmodelingofthefutureofworkfindsthatdemandforworkersinSTEM-related,healthcare,andotherhigh-skillprofessionswouldrisewhiledemandforoccupationssuchasofficeworkers,productionworkers,andcustomerservicerepresentativeswoulddecline.By2030,inamidpointadoptionscenario,upto30percentofcurrenthoursworkedcouldbeautomated,acceleratedbygenerativeAI.Effortstoachievenet-zeroemissions,anaging workforce,andgrowthine-commerceaswellasinfrastructureandtechnologyspendingandoveralleconomicgrowthcouldalsoshiftemploymentdemand. By2030,Europecouldrequireupto12millionoccupationaltransitions,doubletheprepandemicpace.IntheUnitedStates,requiredtransitionscouldreachalmost12million,inlinewiththeprepandemicnorm.BothregionsnavigatedevenhigherlevelsoflabormarketshiftsattheheightoftheCOVID-19period,suggestingthattheycanhandlethisscaleoffuturejobtransitions.ThepaceofoccupationalchangeisbroadlysimilaramongcountriesinEurope,althoughthespecificmixreflectstheireconomicvariations. Businesseswillneedamajorskillsupgrade.Demandfortechnologicalandsocialandemotionalskillscouldriseasdemandforphysicalandmanualandhighercognitiveskillsstabilizes.SurveyedexecutivesinEuropeandtheUnitedStatesexpressedaneednotjustforadvancedITanddataanalyticsbutalsoforcriticalthinking,creativity,andteachingandtraining—skillstheyreportascurrentlybeinginshortsupply.Companiesplantofocusonretrainingworkers,inadditiontohiringorsubcontracting,tomeetskillneeds. WorkerswithlowerwagesfacechallengesofredeploymentasdemandreweightstowardoccupationswithhigherwagesinbothEuropeandtheUnitedStates. Occupationswithlowerwagesarelikelytoseereductionsindemand,andworkerswillneedtoacquirenewskillstotransitiontobetter-payingwork.Ifthatdoesn’thappen,thereisariskofamorepolarizedlabormarket,withmorehigher-wagejobsthanworkersandtoomanyworkersforexistinglower-wagejobs. Choicesmadetodaycouldreviveproductivitygrowthwhilecreatingbettersocietaloutcomes.EmbracingthepathofacceleratedtechnologyadoptionwithproactiveworkerredeploymentcouldhelpEuropeachieveanannualproductivitygrowthrateofupto 3percentthrough2030.However,slowadoptionandslowredeploymentwouldlimitthatto 0.3percent,closertotoday’slevelofproductivitygrowthinWesternEurope.Slowworkerredeploymentwouldleavemillionsunabletoparticipateproductivelyinthefutureofwork. Anewfutureofwork:TheracetodeployAIandraiseskillsinEuropeandbeyond3 1 Context:Laborshortagesandaslowdowninproductivitygrowth ThisreportfocusesonlabormarketsinEuropeandtheUnitedStates,lookingatthe nextfewyearsto2030.Technologyandotherfactorswillspurchangesinthepatternoflabordemand,buttheseexpectedshiftsneedtobetakeninthecontextofdeep-seatedlabormarketchangesa

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