南华航运（集运）周报：现货运价持续下行，欧洲高通胀短期难改

20230924 − Z0003508 F03100647 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1 1 SEAFI SCFIS SCFICCFI NCFI 2 9 7.58% CCFI 18 920 SCFIS CICFI 5.67% -7.75% 8.33% 9 22 SCFI NCFI NCFI -12.09% SEAFI 7.25% 5.63% -8.72% 19.13% NCFI 6.90% -5.03% 3.20% 25.67% NCFI SEAFI 12.48% NCFI -10.53% NCFI 0.50% 2 3 2 0.11% 880.5 32413 EC2404 468 0.76% 877.8 EC2404 EC2406 EC2408 EC2410 EC2412 884.5940.1999.0947.0965.4 877.8933.3985.0930.0950.9 -0.76%-0.72%-1.40%-1.80%-1.50% 879.5940.0997.1943.7957.3 880.5930.5980.6933.7950.9 0.11% -1.01% -1.65% -1.06% -0.67% 32413 11856 2051 1960 544 - 4 2 Markit PMI 43.4 √ ⭐⭐⭐⭐ —— ⭐⭐⭐⭐ —— ⭐⭐⭐ CPI 6.7% √ ⭐⭐⭐⭐ CPI 5.2% √ ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 5 2017-06-02 2017-10-02 2018-02-02 2018-06-02 2018-10-02 2019-02-02 2019-06-02 2019-10-02 2020-02-02 2020-06-02 2020-10-02 2021-02-02 2021-06-02 2021-10-02 2022-02-02 2022-06-02 2022-10-02 2023-02-02 2023-06-02 2022-09-23 2022-10-14 2022-11-04 2022-11-25 2022-12-16 2023-01-06 2023-01-27 2023-02-17 2023-03-10 2023-03-31 2023-04-21 2023-05-12 2023-06-02 2023-06-23 2023-07-14 2023-08-04 2023-08-25 2023-09-15 3 9,000.0 3,000.0 8,000.0 2,500.0 7,000.0 6,000.0 2,000.0 5,000.0 1,500.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 1,000.0 2,000.0 500.0 1,000.0 0.0 0.0 SCFI CCFI SEAFI NCFI SCFI CCFI SEAFI NCFI iFinD 6 2023-08-25 2023-08-28 2023-08-31 2023-09-03 2023-09-06 2023-09-09 2023-09-12 2023-09-15 2023-09-18 2023-09-21 3 20.0% 1.00% 15.0% 0.50% 10.0% 0.00% 5.0% -0.50% 0.0% -1.00% -5.0% -1.50% -10.0% -2.00% CCFI SCFI SEAFI NCFI iFinD 7 2022-04-04 2022-05-04 2022-06-04 2022-07-04 2022-08-04 2022-09-04 2022-10-04 2022-11-04 2022-12-04 2023-01-04 2023-02-04 2023-03-04 2023-04-04 2023-05-04 2023-06-04 2023-07-04 2023-08-04 2023-09-04 2022-04-25 2022-06-09 2022-07-24 2022-09-07 2022-10-22 2022-12-06 2023-01-20 2023-03-06 2023-04-20 2023-06-04 2023-07-19 2023-09-02 3 40.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% 9,000.0 8,000.0 6,000.0 30.0% 5,000.0 7,000.0 20.0% 6,000.0 4,000.0 10.0% 5,000.0 3,000.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 0.0 0.0% 2,000.0 -10.0% 1,000.0 -20.0% -30.0% 0.0 SCFIS SCFIS SCFIS SCFIS iFinD 8 2012-08-03 2013-03-03 2013-10-03 2014-05-03 2014-12-03 2015-07-03 2016-02-03 2016-09-03 2017-04-03 2017-11-03 2018-06-03 2019-01-03 2019-08-03 2020-03-03 2020-10-03 2021-05-03 2021-12-03 2022-07-03 2023-02-03 2023-09-03 2022-09-23 2022-10-14 2022-11-04 2022-11-25 2022-12-16 2023-01-06 2023-01-27 2023-02-17 2023-03-10 2023-03-31 2023-04-21 2023-05-12 2023-06-02 2023-06-23 2023-07-14 2023-08-04 2023-08-25 2023-09-15 3 7,000.0 2,500.0 6,000.0 2,000.0 5,000.0 1,500.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 1,000.0 2,000.0 500.0 1,000.0 0.0 0.0 iFinD 9 2022-09-23 2022-10-07 2022-10-21 2022-11-04 2022-11-18 2022-12-02 2022-12-16 2022-12-30 2023-01-13 2023-01-27 2023-02-10 2023-02-24 2023-03-10 2023-03-24 2023-04-07 2023-04-21 2023-05-05 2023-05-19 2023-06-02 2023-06-16 2023-06-30 2023-07-14 2023-07-28 2023-08-11 2023-08-25 2023-09-08 2023-09-22 3 NCFI 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% iFinD 10 2012-08-03 2013-03-03 2013-10-03 2014-05-03 2014-12-03 2015-07-03 2016-02-03 2016-09-03 2017-04-03 2017-11-03 2018-06-03 2019-01-03 2019-08-03 2020-03-03 2020-10-03 2021-05-03 2021-12-03 2022-07-03 2023-02-03 2023-09-03 2022-09-23 2022-10-14 2022-11-04 2022-11-25 2022-12-16 2023-01-06 2023-01-27 2023-02-17 2023-03-10 2023-03-31 2023-04-21 2023-05-12 2023-06-02 2023-06-23 2023-07-14 2023-08-04 2023-08-25 2023-09-15 3 6,000.0 3,000.0 5,000.0 2,500.0 4,000.0 2,000.0 3,000.0 1,500.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 1,000.0 500.0 0.0 NCFI NCFI NCFI NCFI iFinD 11 2022-09-23 2022-10-07 2022-10-21 2022-11-04 2022-11-18 2022-12-02 2022-12-16 2022-12-30 2023-01-13 2023-01-27 2023-02-10 2023-02-24 2023-03-10 2023-03-24 2023-04-07 2023-04-21 2023-05-05 2023-05-19 2023-06-02 2023-06-16 2023-06-30 2023-07-14 2023-07-28 2023-08-11 2023-08-25 2023-09-08 2023-09-22 3 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% NCFI NCFI iFinD 12 2012-08-03 2013-02-03 2013-08-03 2014-02-03 2014-08-03 2015-02-03 2015-08-03 2016-02-03 2016-08-03 2017-02-03 2017-08-03 2018-02-03 2018-08-03 2019-02-03 2019-08-03 2020-02-03 2020-08-03 2021-02-03 2021-08-03 2022-02-03 2022-08-03 2023-02-03 2023-08-03 2022-09-23 2022-10-13 2022-11-02 2022-11-22 2022-12-12 2023-01-01 2023-01-21 2023-02-10 2023-03-02 2023-03-22 2023-04-11 2023-05-01 2023-05-21 2023-06-10 2023-06-30 2023-07-20 2023-08-09 2023-08-29 2023-09-18 3 2023 9,000.0 8,000.0 7,000.0 6,000.0 5,000.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 0.0 2,000.0 1,800.0 1,600.0 1,400.0 1,200.0 1,000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 1,200.0 1,000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 NCFI NCFI NCFI NCFI iFinD 13 2022-09-23 2022-10-07 2022-10-21 2022-11-04 2022-11-18 2022-12-02 2022-12-16 2022-12-30 2023-01-13 2023-01-27 2023-02-10 2023-02-24 2023-03-10 2023-03-24 2023-04-07 2023-04-21 2023-05-05 2023-05-19 2023-06-02 2023-06-16 2023-06-30 2023-07-14 2023-07-28 2023-08-11 2023-08-25 2023-09-08 2023-09-22 3 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0