世界贸易发生了前所未有的变化

BradSetserSaysWorldTradeHasChangedinWaysThatNobodyWasExpecting bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-09/brad-setser-says-world-trade-has-changed-in-ways-that-nobody-was-expecting JoeWeisenthal,TracyAlloway BradSetser称世界贸易发生了前所未有的变化 <Wetalkaboutde-globalization,whenonmostmeasuresChina'seconomyactuallyre-globalized.= <s们谈论的是去全球W，而在大多数情况O，中ÿ经济实际N是重ð全球W的2= TheMSCNewYorkcontainershipatthePortofFelixstoweinFelixstowe,UK. 在费利克ï托菲力ï杜港的海运]司纽þ集装箱船2 Photographer:ChrisRatcliffe/Bloomberg摄影:ChrisRatcliffe/彭博社 2023€6o9日GMT+816:00GMT09June20102023+816:00GMT Fouryearsago,priortothepandemic,thebigstoryinworldtradewastheTrumptariffsagainstChina. 四€前，疫情爆发O前，世界贸易的大ð闻是特朗普对中ÿà征s税2 Flashforwardtotoday,andwhilethetariffsarestillhere,they’renotfrontandcenterthewaytheyusedtobe. 回到今y，虽然s税Ï然存在，但它们þ经O像过去那样r~首要þ题2 InsteadthetradeconversationisdominatedbytalkofsemiconductorsandfearsthattheUSisfallingbehindinleadingedgetechnology.China’sboomingelectricvehicle-exportbusinessisputtingpressureonincumbentautomakersallovertheworld,particularlyinEurope.AndtheBidenadministration’sInflationReductionAct(IRA)isreshapingsupplychainsforcriticalbatterytech.Meanwhile,Russia’sinvasionofUkrainehasreconfiguredtheworld’senergymap,andoilexportingpowerhouseslikeSaudiArabiahaveaccumulatedevenmoremassivesurpluses. 相反，贸易对话要围绕半导体，ñ及对美ÿ在尖端€术方面落^的担忧2中ÿ蓬勃发展的电ú汽车û口业á给世界各地的Āp汽车制 商带来了压力，尤w是在欧洲2拜登政府的:降P通°膨胀法案;(IRA)k在重塑s键电池€术的供应链2Pl\时，Ð罗ï入侵P克q重塑了世界能源版Ā，沙特阿拉伯等石油û口大ÿ积累了更大规模的盈余2 <Noneofthatwould’vebeenonanyone’sradarscreensbackin2019,=saysBradSetser,wholefthispositionasatradeadvisortotheBidenadministrationlastyear,inanewepisodeoftheOddLotspodcast.Ontheflipside,henotes<Thetariffsdidn'tdriveasbigashiftintradeassomeexpected.= 去€离开拜登政府贸易顾þ职O的_拉德•塞泽尔(BradSetser)在ð一期的<奇°ÿ居=播客中表示:<2019€的时候，任何人都O会注意到à些2=2另一方面，他指û，<s税并没p像一些人预期的那样推ú贸易的巨大转ę2= Indeed,judgedonjusttheaggregatenumbers,alotofthepre-pandemictrendsremaininplace.UStradedeficitsremainwide.China’stradesurplusremainslargeandgrowing.ThefactthatSetserkeepscomingbackto,however,isthat<Chinaisexportingatrilliondollarsmorethanitwasbeforethepandemic.It’sexportingatrilliondollarsmorethanitdidwhenTrumpstartedhistradewar.= 事实N，仅Ð总数来看，大流行前的许多趋势Ï然存在2美ÿ的贸易逆差Ï然很大2中ÿ的贸易顺差Ï然很大，而且ß在增长2然而，塞策尔O断提到的事实是，<中ÿ的û口额比疫情爆发前增à了1万亿美元2P特朗普发ú贸易战时相比，美ÿû口了1万亿美元2= Bloomberg彭博社 Betweentheincome-supportmeasuresputinplaceinNorthAmericaandEurope—whichhelpedcatalyzeaboominthedemandforgoods—andChina’sownchoicetoprioritizedomesticmanufacturingcapacityoverhouseholddemand,<there'sjustallsortsofmeasuresthatsuggest[the]overallpolicyresponsetothepandemicmadetheworldmore,notlessdependentonChinesemanufacturing.= 在X美和欧洲实施的收入支持措施(à些措施帮û催W了商品需求的繁荣)和中ÿ自ý选择将ÿ内制 能力置于家庭需求ONO间，<p各种各样的措施表明，应对疫情的整体政策反应使世界更à依赖中ÿ制 业，而O是减少了à种依赖2= Theirony,Setsersays,isthat<wetalkaboutde-globalization,whenonmostmeasuresChina'seconomyactuallyre-globalized.= 塞策说，xp讽刺意味的是，<s们谈论的是去全球W，而在大多数情况O，中ÿ的经济实际N是重ð全球W的2= It’sthisenvironment—onecharacterizedbyChina’sgrowingexportdominanceandthesupplychainfrailtiesexposedbythepandemic —thathavecatalyzedashiftinthinkingfrompolicymakersintheWest. k是à种ÿ境Ïr了西方政策制定者思维的转ę2à种ÿ境是中ÿ日益增长的û口导拥p属g和疫情暴露û的供应链脆弱g的体Ā2 <In2019,itwasn’twidelyrecognizedthatIntelwasfallingbehindtheleadingedgeofsemiconductormanufacturingtechnology.AndthevulnerabilitiesthatwereassociatedwithrelianceonTSMCweren’tkindoffrontandcenter,=notesSetser,whohasnowrejoinedtheCouncilonForeignRelationsasaseniorfellow. <2019€，人们没p普遍认识到，英特尔在半导体制 €术方面落^于领先水2而且P依赖Ā积电相s的脆弱g并O是首要的,=塞策指û，他Ā在ñ高ÿ研究员的身份重ðà入外交s系委员会(CouncilonForeignRelations)2 ThentheCHIPSActaimedatboostingAmerica’sownsemiconductorcapacitywasintroduced.AndwiththeIRA,theWhiteHousedecided,asSetserputsit,that<thetransitiontoelectricvehiclesshouldnotbeatransitiontoChinese-madeelectricvehicles …Ifyou’regoingtoclosefactoriesmakinginternalcombustion engines,youwantedtheretobenewfactoriesbeingbuiltintheUnitedStatestomakebatteries,tomakethecomponentsofanelectriccar.= 随^，旨在提高美ÿ自身半导体产能的CHIPS法案ûĀ2对于爱尔qr和军，白宫ô定，k如塞策所说，<向电ú汽车的过渡O应该是向中ÿ制 的电ú汽车的过渡如果你打算sý制 内燃机的工厂， 你希望在美ÿ建立ð的工厂来制 电池，制 电ú汽车的零部þ2= Meanwhile,theIRAhasjoltedEuropeangovernments,whobelievetheAct’ssubsidiestodomesticUSautomakersareinviolationofWorldTradeOrganizationcommitments.Heretooisanotherirony,accordingtoSetser:ChinahasbeenbuildingitsEVproductioncapacityforyears,andisinagreatpositiontomakeinroadsintotheEuropeanmarket.Meanwhile,theSUVsandotherlargecarsprioritizedbyUSautomakersareunlikelytomakemuchinroadinEurope. Pl\时，爱尔qr和军ð欧洲各ÿ政府震惊，它们认~该法案对美ÿÿ内汽车制 商的补½违反了世界贸易组织(WTO)的诺2塞策尔表示，ßp一个xp讽刺意味的事情:中ÿ多€来一直在建¿电ú汽车生产能力，而且处于非常p利的地O，ÿñ打入欧洲^场2Pl\时，美ÿ汽车制 商`先考虑的SUV和w他大型汽车Ozÿ能在欧洲×得很大进展2 AsSetserputsit: k如塞策所言: <WhiletheEuropeanswerecomplainingabouttheformalprotectionintheInflationReductionAct,theyhadignoredtheinformalprotectionthatChinahadextendedtoitselectricvehicleindustry,thathadsortofsuccessfullynurturedaninfant industry,createdaverysuccessfulsupplychainupanddowntheelectric vehicleprocess.Youknow,batteriestodrivetrains,etc.Andhadsuddenlybecomeabig,bigexporter. <当欧洲人在抱h:降P通胀法案;中的k式保护时，他们忽视了中ÿ对w电ú汽车行业的非k式保护，à种非k式保护在某种程度Nrß地培育了一个