2023泰国房地产市场展望

2023 RealEstate MarketCBRE OutlookTHAILAND Economy 3.2% 2022F 1C%. ECONOMY GDPForccastbyuhc BankofThailand 210Ci 's% 25C4Aal9h 1U%Jeque.des ttacks sunnl 26-5.JS- hir: Tra:l:ur 5% 2032-20U3 SAR5 201402JP 008 Gl:l fingnr:'alf.iais 2011 rlosir: COVD10 Ou-oreak 2c% GrovthRate 2.2% -6.2% 2020 1.6% 2021 -3%. 2019 3.6% 2023F Canli.1ai-I"iaAfCEREI ECONDMY RiskstoWatch Recoveryisunderwaybutthereareconcerns Recovery Risks OutsideInfluence The2022touristarrivaltargetwasexceededby12%. Unvinclingfiscalstimulustooquicklywithrisingintlation QngoingimpactofRussiaUkrainecrisiscontinuing 2023hasalsostartedwell.Chinareopeningearlierthan andinterestrates. toimpaetglohalmarketsandtourismindustry. expectedispositive.Canmomentumbesustained? Structuralprablelis,includinglowcarnpetitivenessin Thaiexportrriarketvulnerabletoglobaldownturn. OvclallconsurnpLioncargrowslcadily.although ccrLainkoyagriculluralandrnarulacluringsccLors. Fallingdormarnid,andbahl,cunicricylucluaLion. concernremainsthatlowincomeearnershavetoomuch cebttoincreasespencing. Variousgeopoliticalrisks.bethintheregionand implementationafter2023election. globally,withthepotentialtodestabilize. Businassinvpstmpntan-dFDlinflowsshruldrontinuietn grewasrecaverycantinues Canli.1ai-I"1iaIAfCERI Residential 2 95%ofnewconclosupplywasintlhicmidtownand suburbanmarkets Newclownlownsupplywas 7o%ofprc-covmlevels 2022newsupplyiscomparabletothatof2020& 2021combinerl TDoresticownusemarket.is keytarget LExpcctnorcowntown laumnchesin2023 70.00G RC.C0G E0.c00 5C.00G 5,72f; 4G.00 1C.c.Or: 1C.000 2012 2c"! 2C/14 2913 2c*S 2517 2018 2C19 2525 2C21 2022 202: 3.199 Urits ILcW1tcwr Vidtown/suuran CONDOMINIUM NewlyLaunchedCondominiumsinDowntownandMidtown/SuburbanAreas,2o12-2o23F In2022: Canli.1a1i-I&"-1.iaIArt:fc3CER=I eur.eLLsesre. HOUSING TotalNewHousingUnitsLaunchedbetween2o15-2023F In2022: Units 40,009 35,000 34.38435,000 Surse.lsear LUXU1Y Significantiucrcascjulauuchesofluxurylhouses 30,000 25,000 20,000 15.000 Overllo0ncwlaunchesof luxury&superluxuryunits in2022 10,000 5,000 20152018201720:1820192020202°20222023F NewLuxury&SuperLuxuryHousingUnitsLaunchedbetween2015-2023F Superluxurylaunchesin 2022cxcccclallofprcvious totalsupply 1.200 1,000 600 100 200 1299 885 2015 201G 2017 2918 2019 2020 2021 2022 2C23F 2022newlauncheswerefour tinceshigherthan7-ycar anmmualaverage 1,400 Units Canli.1ai-I"iaAfCEREI SupurLilxury RESIDENTIAL TrendstoWatch Luxuryhousingmarketcontinues 区 Creatingspacestomeetnew Activitypicksupfor Diversityinforeignbuyers withupgradeindesign needs downtowncondos Newpost-COvIDdesignswillcontinuetr? Sincethepandemichegan,wehave. FocusonclearingRTMunsoldinventory Touristactivityincreasusconfidence adapllomeclbuyors'nicrds. seenchangasinbuyers'preferences inH12023.withverylimitednew anidbringspolenlialbuycrs. [orhousingoveicoridominiurm launches. Litestylechangesrequiremoreattentionto propertiesashcusesprovidlelarger MonitorinterestfromChinese cletailbydevelopers. livingspaceandmoreprivacy. Marryrcady-Lo-launchprojcocls buyerspost-CQvIDandChina clowntown,butclevelopersacoptinga propertymarketdiffirulties. Changein"essential"facilitiesanddesign Morescopeformultigenerationliving wait-and-seeapproach. elelllenilsthatrnewprujuclsrnuslprvidtu Nuw1markclpoLcnlialfroiniSouLh b心succoss[ul. Newtypasafproductwithatleastane CastAsiaandMiddleCast. healthcareprojectexpectedandlarge condouriLs. Canli.1ai-I"iaIAfCERI Office 3 NewSupplyandNetNewTake-up20Q6-2023F 40G,GOG 23C,C00 OC,CO0 4次 57 BX 1C% 12% 14% 15% 202. 22% (1on,roa) 53C,CDC VavencyRate ..m. N:wSudt Anr.ralNelT:kn-U: /aarcRail: Significantncwintcrnational qualitysupplywillshapethe futuurcofficemarkct weaklemaudlinumcertain timcssccsvacancicsrisc Lowleasingactivity,with morerenewalsin2022 Net.Lake-uplorecastlor2023 isncgativc,withmost relocatingtosmallerspaces OFFICE 7% (200.000) 500 LC 2C/12 2G": 0% Canli.1ai-I"1iaIAf3CERI Suroe.CElsearc GFC M:200 Farl2n08 Covid-19 Deccma2C1s 1;IC0 1.040 1.3C0 9C0 834 8ro 721 514 6GO 5CO 400 :1GO OU 2310 20*6 2200 :200 -B/sq.m. CBLradeA NonCEreceA 31C3LCradeB AverageEffectiveRentofBangkokOfficebyGrade,2006-2023F Slowdeclineinaveragc rentalrateclespite significantnewsupply Overall.rentsareexpecterl tofallandlvacancyratcsto rise Ollerurrenovatedbuilclings mostvulneralbletofalling renis Thebestbuilclingswill achieveatleastTTB 1.o00/sq.m OFFICE Tlealveragerenlisr:alr:nlallbHselon1o0 3OOsc-ITI.CHRFIrar1Sac:lior1S. LargcrtrarisaclionsaLlainanapproximalcly5-15%discountfromsmallcrtransoclions Canli.1ai-I"-1.iaIAr:f3CER=I :A" OFFICE TrendstoWatch willmorecompaniesmovein2023thanin2022? TimeforCompaniesto RelocatetoHighQualityOffices FlexSpaceandTurnkeySolutions Demand RentalSofteningnotequal Tenantsareconsideringrelocationtohighquality Agileworkplaceoperatorsarebecominganimportant Rentsforolderunrenov