2023德国房地产市场展望

REPORT IntelligertInvestrrient Market Outlook 2023 GermanyREALESTATE CDRERESEARCH 1.--1--1.11.:+1.] PealC:d.J*darke.ul-,023IGerey Content 01 Economy Theou:ackforthGermane.onomyin2023impravednoablyacthestartof theyear.Econorricoutputislikelytcdeclirgsolmehat,butasgveresluiripis pecoedxetou 06 Residential Ahousngsnortagepadominatas-atthesametima.ccstincreasasm:kerew 022InvestmentMarket weanticipsterexovoryinthemarkotfrommic-2o23onwrdoncerealcstatc Yielc.shavefoundanevlevelagainstthebackdrapofhigrerfinancingcasssand leinLivsinvesmcnteof'cringhigherieluins. 07 Hotel Marketnocoverywasstrongicrthancxpectcdin2022Theyear2021willbe c.ata'minadbytheenoran:situatiorardrorsumers'expectatiorscfinfsticn. 033Offlce Theotticeeesingmarketsareprcvingtobeveryresilient.Structuraltrends orrlanalinyIrolllnuwwu'kalclEsGdreduuoulalir'y'icuiivinyrcrilalgruwlh longwthrowir:polarizsticn. 08 SeniorLivingandHealthcare Attractivefundarrentals=ejuxtapcsedtotherisingccstsotenergy,wagesard prsclucticn,alongwithancutestaffs'icrtage,Privatecapitaliswigondyncededfor constn,ctionandtormaintainingthesocialintrastrucz,re. $0 UrbanQuartersfMixedUse Mixecuseisncreasingyevalvingintosseparateassetclasscnthereslestate market.Strongdemandfrcmawderangecfplayersmeetingwithlintedsupply llakesLheeduveuprrurilcfexisuirnigslockpeiliculurlyinilalasLirig. 04Retail Therecen:excgerausshacksfollnwirgthecoranavinispsndlemichavept.t considerablepressureonret=il,allthevihiledrivingtranstormsticn=nd Inovsticn 05Logistics ThomaikolfclinduslrialanicdlogisissprupulicsbcyurnLhcrniowyoalvithluil- windthankstotheoutstancingresutsontheinvestmen:andleasingmarket. Threylaaleslchallenysrumainistheavailal'lilyuflanu,hcwuver. 10 DataCenters SustlaineddcrnaridfelrnowDccapecilyinLhcrriarkeliscoincidingwitralaskof suitabeland.Atthesametime,synergyeffects,qresteefficiencysncl=SGcriteria arulakinyu'irnicredsinylyirsurlarilrole. 3 rnr.-prsrakclI 01 Economy Outlook Atthestartoftheyear,sentimentbarometersindicatedaveryslighteconomicdownturnatrmost.Despitehigherenergycosts,inflationislikelytohavepeakedbutwillcontinuetohugrelativelyhighlevelsin2023.Thelabormarketremainsrobust.withtheresultthathighwageincreaseswillboostrealhouseholdincome andprivatoconsumption 05 03 02 Asfrarmid-yesr,gncwthwillgraduallypickupMomentumas"oreigndemandwillintensifyanduncer- taintydiminist.Againstthebackdropctdecliningenergyadccmoditiesccsts,thepricepressureis likelytogseandhigherwagasshoulcsupporthcuseholdingorng.alscthankstoaveryrcbustlabor s'ket Weanticipatecorsicerablecatch-upeffectsfrunpen-upcaiandanidadditionalsavingsaccunulated du,ringtaepscemc,shevesllfmmprlvateconslimption,vithsthmulusforretailardthelelsiireand hctelsectcr. 04 Thegovernnanthasprcvidadccmpaniesandprivatehousehadswithorsiclerablesupporduringthe anuryycrisis,abuvualwthaslewcfsubsidies antcthg*trursfur=.Ataround2%fGDP,tnsfursbc privalehouscholdsnccompaniosarethcmoslsubsLanlialnthetontexlofLhecapeonclec.rici.yand gasprices. Coepitoin1stionratoetrendingclon,inflatiknIlnoverthclessncmainwayabovcthcCctsrgetin 2c23Consequently.theECEwillnctstravfronitsratehikeathandhasannouncedfurtherincreases Fcrrealestateirvestmertstoncld=neirapealinthetaceohighercapitalcostsandtherising"eturns fsallcr1aliveinvestmonis,yicldsnthissccleimustreetocorcinsly I.I-+-I+1. RealC:d.:darke.CJu",0IGerIlY Trcndstowath 01 Highenargyandfirncingcosts,alangwiththeriseintrcostafliving,willdragona.onomicperfar. 'anc8,bcvellinth6wirterIlonths.In2023,weanticipaethatGurrmanvI1aysseavgymnildgwo nomicicocssionandaGDprcgrcssionralcof-0.7%.althoagheolimontindicalorsshewLha. renessioncanhepreventedifredbe. r:nr.-prsrakclI #2,3t,R;- Thclabcrmarkctremainedrobust,at=nccndlof2o22asvrcll.Gainfulomploymentandl employmentsubjecttosccialinsurancecortnbutionscontinuetheirustrerd.with arcund45.milionpersonsresidentinCermany.g='ntulemplcyTentreachedanew! recordhigh'niNcvernber2022Corriparadwitr-November2021.thr1.imtaofthce :ainfulycmaloyadrosoy7.0%:cquvalentto4/2.o::0pcrsons.with34.Smlllon persarsinemplaymentsluaject.tnsacialinsurancecrint-ibutinns:inOctohel;growthstcodat531,100,up1.5%yearory8=r. Figure1:DevelopmentinGermamy'srealgrossdomesticproductandunemploymentrate 35 4.03% 3.9% 3.6% 1.47 3.2% 3.0% 7.55: 2.0% 2.47 85 2.038 G420rgG22020 Q42020Q22021 Q2221G22022Q42022Q22023F42023FG22024FQ42024F Jen23G3FFarecasttInklcxC420l3=10c,Ict.Yexis? nkmpovimentra'cl_O, Scl.rreCxfn.Facrrrcs,CRRFFasaarar Despiseinflation.theenergYrrisis,thewarirUkrsina,cngaingdis'uptionstcsup.aly chainsanclaborshortags,theGamaneccnomyorcvedtobereativelyresilienitin -oyealnowended.MeaeurcclagnslGemany'sgiossdomcslicoroducl,coonomicrgwthcameira:1.9%in2022.Byccntrat.2021ciivered9rovthrateaf2.A%Macroeccnomicmomertunrasthereforeevidentlyslcwedsomewhat,mcstparticlarlyal,Lhccndof2022and,inthocurrcrilvnlorporiod,asligh.uoclinomaybe xosslollizy,Hkwcvor.qiventhatasshtaxc$unlikelythankstodcl:onalas inpcrtsfromothercountriesandreduradccnsumption,wi