美光科技（MU）获买入评级，目标价上调至1700美元：存储芯片价格飙升推动强劲盈利

Micron Technology(MU US) Buy:Continued earnings surprisefrom ongoingmemory price hikes United States ◆Robust FY3Q earnings from better DRAM and NAND pricehikes, especially upside from NAND price andmargins MAINTAIN BUY ◆Continued DRAM and NAND shortage amid booming generalserverdemandaswell as persisting CSP capex increase ◆ReiterateBuywithnew TP of USD1,700 (from USD1,100) onstronger earnings and reference outlookroll-over Earnings surprise in FY3Q:Due to higherDRAM and NAND price trendsof62% and86% q-o-q (vs. HSBCe of +45%/35%), Micron reported 24%/19% stronger OP thanHSBCe/Bloomberg consensus atUSD34bn (+105% q-o-q, +1,253% y-o-y) with sales ofUSD42bn (+74% q-o-q, +346% y-o-y). NAND margin improvedsubstantiallyto 75% from20% in FY1Q thankstotheemergence ofnewapplications, contextmemory storage(CMS), as well as surging eSSD demand fromgeneralserver and cloud storage. Memory shortage to boost earnings continuously.We see:1) AI factory buildup, 2)slower capacity expansion and,3) inefficiency in tech migration and capex usagecontinuingto boost DRAM and NAND prices, and assume FY4Q operating profitwillreach USD42bn (+24% q-o-q,uptenfold y-o-y) with sales of USD51bn (+24% q-o-q,+354% y-o-y).In particular,HBMprice hikes should underpin stronger growth. HBM hasbeen losing its premium to commodity DRAM despite thechip-size penalty; we expect Ricky Seo*Head of Korea Research, Semiconductor and Display The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branchrickyjuilseo@kr.hsbc.com Booming agentic AI and CSP capex are driving demand.We see the memory cycleresembling the 1990–95 supercycle, with agentic AI expected to lift general-server unitshipments by 20%/21% in2026/27e. AI is also broadening memory demand beyondHBM, supporting USD643bn capex by the top-4 CSPs (+71% y-o-y) in 2026e. In AI datacentres, the AI-to-general server mix should shift to 1:1 from 4–8:1, benefiting general Han Kil Chang*Research Analyst, Korea Technology The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,Seoul Securities Branchhan.kil.chang@kr.hsbc.com * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Reiterate Buy, raise TP toUSD1,700(fromUSD1,100):On stronger memory pricing,we raise our2026/27/28e OP by 19%/30%/35%. We roll our reference period toFY28BVPSto reflect a morestable, long-term earnings outlook from SCAs, and apply a3.8xtarget P/Bto derive our new TP, implying10x PE on 2027e EPSand9x on 2028e EPS.Despite potential competition from Chinese memory makers, we see limited risk given No country for bears Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and withthe Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:Micron Technology Source:WSTS, TrendForce, Company data, HSBC estimates Source:WSTS, TrendForce, Company data, HSBC estimates Source:TrendForce, HSBC estimates Source:TrendForce. Note: MS based on revenue Source:DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates Source:DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates Source:Company data, HSBC estimates Source:HSBC estimates Source:TrendForce, HSBC estimates Source:Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: TrendForce Source:DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates Source:Company data, HSBC estimates Source:Company data, HSBC estimates Source:Semianalysis, HSBC Source:Company data, Bloomberg consensusestimates Source:Company data, Bloomberg consensus for Capex, Visible alpha consensus for operating cash flow estimates Source:Company data, Bloomberg consensusestimates Source:Company data, HSBC estimates Source:Companydata, HSBC estimates Source:Company data, HSBC estimates, Note: Based on non-GAAP financials Source:Company data, HSBC estimates, Note: Based onnon-GAAP financials Exhibit40.Details of historicalupcyclesof the DRAM market, by key events Upcycles(1) 1990-1995 Personal computer (PC) boom, widespread adoption of PC by households, leading to growth in DRAM demand(2) 1998-2000Strong replacement demand from the 'Y2K' crisis, leading to even stronger PC replacement investment(3) 2002-2006Demand for downloadable services spiked with the help of slim notebook demand from LCD, release of iPod, and development of legacy cell phones(4) 2009-2010Launch of the world's first smartphone, and start of a new era in mobile application demand(5) 2012-2015Prolonged upcycle due to sudden supply reduction from major fire incident in SK Hynix's China facilities(6) 2016-2018Widespread adoption of streaming services, leading to accelerated investment in cloud infrastructure and digital transition(7) 2020-2022Unprecedented demand boom from 'WFH' trend causing more demand for PC, Chromebooks, and Tablet computers amid