2026年美国市场股息展望：不确定性加剧背景下的稳健增长

Steady growth amid increased uncertainties Table of contents About us US market dividend trends Forecast highlightsS&P 500: Reliable dividend growth amid growing market uncertaintiesSpecial dividends: Declining trend forecast to continue Yield trends: Dividends vs. buybacks Index yields (S&P 500, S&P 400 and S&P 600)Sectorial yields Addressing initiation risk in Dividend Forecasting The take –US aggregate dividends are projected to grow by 6.5% year over year, with all 24 sectors expected to increasepayouts in 2026. –US market special dividends are expected to continue their annual declines, with total payouts in 2026 forecastto be 33% lower than in 2025. –Among S&P 500 dividend-paying constituents, more than 80% are expected to increase dividends. –Dividend-paying constituents of the S&P 1500 continue to offer competitive and reliable yields, particularlywhen compared with risk-free instruments. –Addressing initiation risk in Dividend Forecasting: Featured research About us S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Dividend Forecasting team provides timely data, insights and commentary to helpfinancial institutions price instruments, enhance investment decisions and manage risks. Our global team of over 50analysts maintain precise forecasts on the size and timing of payments based on bottom-up fundamental researchas well as a proprietary advanced analytics model. We pride ourselves in an unmatched coverage that spans over To learn more or to request a demo, contactdividendsupport@spglobal.com or visithttps://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/products/dividend-forecasting.html US market dividend trends Forecast highlights US aggregate dividends are projectedto grow by 6.5% in 2026, reaching approximatelyUS$827 billion. This growth rate is86 basis points lower than the 7.3% increaserecorded in 2025, reflecting a more cautious expansion environment. The projected We estimate that all 24 sectors1will record positive dividend growth in 2026,compared with 2025 when only the consumer durables and apparel sector posted a The largest contributors to dividend growth in 2026 are expected to come from a mix ofvalue-oriented and growth sectors.Among value and cyclical sectors,banks, energy,financial services and insuranceare forecast to deliver solid dividend increases,supported by earnings resilience and balance sheet strength. In addition, thesoftware The energy sector’s outlook for 2026 is primarily shaped by a strong increase in globalelectricity demand, driven by economic growth, accelerating electrification and therising energy requirements of the digital economy, particularly data centers. Despitethese demand headwinds, the near-term price outlook for oil and gas remains bearish, Banks closed 2025 with a 7.7% increase in dividend payouts, driven by US megabanksand regional and community banks.Total payouts among the13 S&P 500 bank constituents rose 7.5%, as all of them increased their annual dividends. The sector isforecast to maintain robust dividend growth, with an estimated6.6% increase in 2026,supported by about211 banks expected to continue growing their dividends. Aggregated dividends compiled based on payment date in the calendar year. S&P 500: Reliable dividend growth amid growing market S&P 500 companies account for about 80% of total regular dividend payments inthe US market. For 2026, we estimate that index constituents will increase dividendpayouts by 6.5%, broadly maintaining a five-year CAGR of above 7% (7.2% in 2025 and7.3% in 2026). As in 2025, all sectors within the index are expected to post dividend At the index level in 2025, the primary contributors to dividend growth werefinancialservices, energy, and software and services, which together contributed a2.7% increase. On a year-over-year basis, the strongest sector-level growth was recorded inmedia and entertainment, insurance, and financial services. Looking ahead to 2026, we estimate thatinsurance, software and services, andenergywill be the leading contributors to index-level dividend growth, collectivelyadding1.9%to the overall increase. On a year-over-year basis, the highest dividend As anticipated at the start of 2025, the weakest-performing sectors wereautomobilesand componentsandmaterials, each posting annual dividend growth ofless than 2%. The third-weakest performer washousehold and personal products, where dividendgrowth slowed to2.3%, about half of its 10-year CAGR of4.9%, following a near-50% Looking ahead to 2026,materials, transportationandreal estate investment trusts(REITs)are estimated to deliver the lowest dividend growth rates, with projected annualincreases of1.4%, 2.4%and2.5%, respectively. From a company-level standpoint,411 companiespay dividends in the S&P 500 (82%). Ofthese companies,405 companiespay quarterly distributions.2From all dividend-payingcompanies, we expect 70 names to maintain flat dividends (14% of total constituents) and 345 names to grow their distributionsin 2026 (6