日本生物制药公司2025财年第四季度/2026财年第一季度业绩总结及我们对覆盖公司的最新看法

Japan Biopharma post-4QFY25/1QFY26 earnings wrap and ourlatest thoughts on our coverage Here are our latest thoughts on our coverage names based on the earnings andlatest discussions with the companies. Miki Sogi, Ph.D.+81 3 6777 6991miki.sogi@bernsteinsg.com DAIICHI SANKYO: OUTPERFORM, PT=JPY4,500: We continue to believe in positivereadouts from Datroways’ Avanzar, TL07 and TL15 later this year. Meanwhile FY25earnings, FY26 guidance and the MTP exposed significant room for DS management to uptheir game, and we sense increasing frustration from investors. We think that the speed of Tian Tan+81 3 6777 6976tian.tan@bernsteinsg.com CHUGAI: OUTPERFORM, PT=JPY9,800: We continue to believe that Foundayo shoulddo as well as Wegovy Pill, if not better, and the stock should react positively as prescription/sales numbers start backing the potential. However, we feel that Chugai does not haveenough to bolster its stock momentum after Foundayo’s growth prospect gets settled. We TAKEDA: OUTPERFORM, PT=JPY6,900: We like their rich clinical catalyst path in FY26and renewed cost cut efforts under the new CEO. If some of the anticipated readoutsare positive, if not all, IBI363, zasocitinib and/or TAK-360 could significantly strengthenTakeda’s growth trajectory in 2030s. Through the organization restructuring, Takeda aimsto save annualized cost of >200Bn by FY28. The recently announced antitrust court ruling EISAI: OUTPERFORM, PT=JPY6,100: We continue to think that Leqembi subcutaneousautoinjector IQLIK starting dose’s launch expected in 2QFY2026 (PDUFA delayed to Aug24th) should be a key catalyst for the stock. The new formulation will make the once-every-two-week 1.5-hr infusion plus monitoring at a medical facility to once-a-week 15-second OTSUKA: MARKET-PERFORM, PT=JPY11,600: Otsuka’s current stock price reflects thecompany’s future growth. Meanwhile, Voyxact’s faster-than-expected market penetrationand ulotatont’s positive Ph3 for schizophrenia in later this year can be a positive surprise. SHIONOGI: MARKET-PERFORM, PT=JPY3,000: We were unimpressed by Shionogi’sslower-than-expected cost optimization plan and uncompelling investments in Radicavaand Xocova launch in the US. Hope for Zatolmilast’s fragile X syndrome opportunity has ASTELLAS: MARKET-PERFORM, PT=JPY2,200: We think Astellas can no longer excitethe market with better-than-expected performance of mature products. While beingpositive about their cost optimization efforts, we are lukewarm about their growth drivers.Plus the pipeline assets face tough competition: Revolution Medicine’s (not covered) BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Daiichi Sankyo: Outperform, PT=JPY4,500.Chugai: Outperform, PT = JPY9,800.Eisai: Outperform, PT = JPY6,100.Takeda: Outperform, PT = JPY6,900. DETAILS Our Japanese Biopharma coverage’s 4Q FY2025/1QFY2026 earnings results were mix: Chugai, Takeda, Otsuka andAstellas beat the market expectation, while Daiichi Sankyo, Eisai and Shionogi’s were miss. Plus FY2026 guidancesof Daiichi Sankyo, Takeda, Eisai, Shionogi and Astellas were soft. As results, the market reacted negatively for Daiichi Here are our latest thoughts on our coverage names based on the earnings and latest discussions with thecompanies. DAIICHI SANKYO: OUTPERFORM, PT=JPY4,500 Daiichi Sankyo 4QFY25: FY26 earnings guidance is a miss. 2030 target has room for stretch through accelerating cost Daiichi Sankyo post 4QFY25 discussion: Management has to show they are up to the task of value maximization of their ADCs OUR LATEST VIEW ON THE NAME Our rating for the name is Outperform, and we continue to believe in positive readouts from Datroways’ Ph3s Avanzar and/or Tropion Lung07 for 1L nonsquamous, Trop2+ NSCLC and TL15 for 2L+ EGFR mut NSCLC, and their positive impact tothe stock price. However 4QFY2025 earnings, FY2026 guidance and 2026–2030 MTP exposed significant room for DSmanagement to up their game. In particular, reported loss provisions for CMO compensation fee (JPY170Bn for FY2025and JPY80Bn for FY2026) was not only a negative financial surprise but also a displeasing revelation that the supply planoverestimates only came to the management’s attention at the very end of the mid-term planning exercise. Plus we cannot help KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM 4QFY2025 EARNINGS, FY2026 GUIDANCE AND 2025-2030 MTP As mentioned above, the key insights from the company’s communication from the earnings season is that the managementhas to show they are up to the task of value maximization of their ADCs. It is reassuring that Enhertu continues strongcommercialization progress, so does Datroway’s launch. Most recently, Enhertu has nabbed two more FDA approvals for earlyHER2+ breast cancer indications neoadjuvant and adjuvant (i.e., pre- and post-operative setting): now the drug has all the keyindications on its label. Datroway’s rapid penetration in 3L+ EGFR mut NSCLC in its launch phase should have lasting positive KEY CONTROVERSIES While the market's expectati