2026欧洲消费与零售行业展望报告

Insightsfromthe European Economic Outlook EY Economic Analysis Team March 2026 Topics Page ►Executive summary►Economic activity and consumer spending in recent quarters►Short-term drivers of economic and consumer outlook►Structural drivers of economic and consumer outlook Executive summary Scope and updated baseline assumptions This report focuses on household consumption and the implications for the retail sector, drawing on the broaderEY European Economic Outlook •The updated baseline scenario assumes a temporary energy shock, with a limited but noticeable drag on European economic activity. In this scenario, the conflict isexpected to raise euro area inflation by around 0.5 pp in 2026 and reduce the level of GDP by around 0.2%. As a result, projected euro area GDP growth in 2026 has beenrevised down from 1.3% to 1.0%, partly reflecting a downward revision related to Ireland, with only limited changes to the outlook in subsequent years. At the same time, •However, recent escalations suggest that even a swift end to the conflict may not allow a rapid return to pre-conflict production levels, particularly for natural gas,implying structurally higher European gas prices over the medium term and more adverse economic effects thanincludedin the current baseline. To capture risks beyond Recent economic performance •In 2025, euro area GDP growth of 1.4% was significantly inflated by an exceptional 12.4% surge in Irish GDP. Excluding Ireland,growth amounted to around 1.0%, still animprovement from 0.8% in 2024. In 2025 Q4, underlying euro area growth (excluding Ireland) strengthened to around 0.4% q/q, as investment and exports began torecover. At the same time, private consumption slowed, manufacturing slipped back into stagnation, and services (led by ICT)continued to expand at a moderate pace. •The labor market broadly stabilized but continued to cool at the margin. Employment growth held at 0.7% y/y, nominal wage growthremained close to 4% y/y, vacancyrates declined, and labor hoarding eased. Unemployment stayed near historical lows, despite some divergence across countries. •With headline inflation hovering around 2%, the ECB kept the deposit rate on hold at 2.0% (unchanged since June 2025), whilemost other European central banks alsoremained in wait-and-see mode—consistent with an economy operating close to potential. •In Q4 2025, consumption growth remained positive but relatively slow and uneven across countries. Despite stable labor markets and rising real incomes, householdsstayedcautiousamid persistent uncertainty related to tariffs and geopolitics,limiting the pass-through from income gains tospending.Consumptionoutcomes werehighly heterogenous, with very strong growth in countries such as Bulgaria contrasting with near-stagnation in Romania, while consumption in the euro area’s large core Executive summary Economicoutlook •Following the slowdown to 1.0% in 2026, euro area GDP growth is expected to pick up toward 1.5-1.6% in 2027–29, as the effects of the Middle East and trade-relatedshocks gradually fade. This recovery is expected to be supported by fiscal policy and lower interest rates, although demographicconstraints on labor supply remain a •Inflation is projected to ease after a temporary energy-driven uptick to 2.4% in 2026, falling below 2% in 2027 as base effectsand lower energy prices dominate, beforeedging slightly higher again toward the end of the forecast horizon, reflecting the extension of the ETS. •Provided the Middle East shock is temporary, central banks are not expected to respond directly to higher energy prices. Under the baseline, no further ECB moves areanticipated. However, recent escalations point to structurally higher European gas prices over the longer term, tilting riskstoward tighter ECB policy. Cross-country disparities Growth performance differs markedly across the EU. Poland is set to remain the growth champion, with GDP growth averaging 4.0% in 2026, followed by Bulgaria andCroatia (around 3%) and Spain (2.5%). The recovery in the Nordics is expected to continue, with Sweden, Denmark, and Norway growing at around 2%. In contrast, Germany •Private consumption growth broadly mirrors GDP dynamics. The strongest consumption growth is expected in CEE (particularly Bulgaria, Poland, and Hungary), supportedby robust wage growth, followed by Spain and the Nordics (excluding Finland), with consumption growth of around 2.0-2.5%. Italyand the UK are expected to lag, withgrowth of only 0.5-0.6%, reflecting a relatively stronger inflation uptick. Inflation differentials remain pronounced. Inflation is projected to remain highest in Romania, averaging 7.0%, due to VAT and energy price hikes and still strong underlyingprice pressures. In the rest of CEE, inflation is expected in the 3-4% range, as the energy shock has a relatively stronger impact on the region. Inflation outcomes alsodiverge within "old" Europe: the UK, the Netherlands, Norway, and Spain are