净零转型的经济学：政策情景与贸易与合作的作用（英）

THE ECONOMICS OFTHE NET-ZERO TRANSITION POLICY SCENARIOS AND THE ROLEOF TRADE AND COOPERATION MARCH 2026 THE ECONOMICS OFTHE NET-ZERO TRANSITION POLICY SCENARIOS AND THE ROLEOF TRADE AND COOPERATION MARCH 2026 Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2026 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2026. ISBN 978-92-9277-713-5 (print); 978-92-9277-714-2 (PDF); 978-92-9277-715-9 (ebook)Publication Stock No. TCS260082-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS260082-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Cover design by Jan Carlo Dela Cruz. ACKNOWLEDGMENTSv ABBREVIATIONSvi HIGHLIGHTSvii IINTRODUCTION The Challenge Facing Asia and the Pacific2Approach and Contributions of This Study4Major Findings5Caveats on Results6 IIMODELING ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY7 Modeling Strategy7Overview of theGlobal Trade and Environment Model9How the Global Trade and Environment Model Calculates Carbon Dioxide Emissions10and Represents Environmental Policy Decarbonization Scenarios Defined13Results of the Decarbonization Scenarios14 IVRESULTS FROM THE TRADE POLICY SCENARIOS35 Trade Policy Scenarios35Results of Leakage Mitigation and Cooperation38 CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY OPPORTUNITIES48 Reaching Net-Zero Emissions in 2050—Possible but with Massive Global Efforts48The Costs of Net Zero—Large but Manageable49Cooperation—The Critical Resource49Green Trade—Part of the Solution50Net Zero by 2050—Leadership Vital to Viability50 APPENDIX REFERENCES61 TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES TABLES 1Scenario Assumptions82Policy Instruments Included in the Model and Their Application123Net Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Decarbonization Scenarios154Energy Sector Capital Stocks by Decarbonization Scenarios175Energy Capital Stocks by Subsector186Energy Sector Investments 2026–2050 by Decarbonization Scenarios197Annual Energy Investments by Subsector, Net-Zero Scenario208Accumulated Stranded Capital by Decarbonization Scenarios229Carbon Dioxide Removed from Atmosphere by Decarbonization Scenarios2310Costs of Carbon Dioxide Removal by Decarbonization Scenarios2411Gross Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Decarbonization Scenarios2512Wage Index for Unskilled Workers2613Wage Index for Skilled Workers2714Index for Returns to Capital2815Regional Exports by Decarbonization Scenarios2916Exports, Net-Zero Scenario, World and Asia3017Export Shares, Net-Zero Scenario, World and Asia3118Real Gross Domestic Product by Decarbonization Scenarios3219World Trade Organization Environment-Related Trade Policies for Climate Action3620Net Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Trade Policy Scenarios3921Real Gross Domestic Product by Trade Policy Scenarios4022Real Exports by Trade Policy Scenarios4123Baseline Real Exports and Changes Due to the Cooperation Scenario in 2050, World and Asia4224Forests Added or Restored, Cooperation Scenario4425Cost of Carbon Dioxide Removals (Beyond Baseline), 205045A.1Regional Correspondence51A.2Sector Correspondence57A.3Policy Instruments Used in the Model Scenarios60 FIGURES 1Effects of Rising Temperatures on Gross Domestic Product by 204822The Global Trade and Environment Model